DVC's "true" value?
What a great thread, exactly what I was looking for! Like others, I have been mulling this over for a while now. Apologies in advance for the length.
Last time mom and I were there (10/2004), we decided to go on a tour mostly because I wanted to see SSR. That was our GF day (massage, boat ride, pool, formal tea, dinner at California Grill). We had to pop over to MK for a bit and the DVC van picked us up there. The SSR DVC area is definitely impressive. My mom is totally against the DVC, pointing out that I don't yet own a home, what if I'm physically unable to go in ## years, what if I lose my job and can no longer afford the yearly fees, and what if the quality of WDW degrades, Disney goes bankrupt, etc., such that I'm no longer interested in returning. The DVC chick sensed I was the "gullable" one (as my mom put it) and focused her spiel on me. That said, it was very low pressure, not at all like other timeshare pitches I've been to, and very enjoyable. I loved the SSR rooms with views of Downtown Disney across the water. And at the end of the pitch, the van dropped me off at POR and my mom off at MK. The free sundae and meal coupons were also nice perks but like I said, I mostly just wanted to see SSR.
I didn't end up buying because I'm not willing to rush into it. But even my mom agreed if DVC was financially viable for anyone, it's me. She also liked the points structure but was leary about what *exactly* is meant by "total points can never go up or down" and potential "hidden" extra costs in yearly fees. We also approached some DVC members poolside at SSR to ask real people about their experience. We talked to a couple who were taking their 1st trip since joining and loved it so far. They liked the flexibility of not having to stay at Disney (but the literature says there's a $75 fee for using the exchange). We talked to them for so long that we didn't end up talking to anyone who were experienced DVC'ers.
The woman did tell us that they talked to a DVC'er who had a horrible experience using her points at POR. She arrived on a Sunday and had some problem with her room. The POR Cast said they couldn't move her room without approval from the DVC, whose office was closed on the weekend? Sunday? something like that. So the DVC'er was stressed and without any remedy until the DVC came back in on Monday. The lack of availability of anyone who could make a decision seems like poor guest service coming from Disney. I don't know more details about her room problem since this came 3rd hand.
So you probably noticed I said I don't own a home. Not sure I want to or that it's for me. I like being able to do what I want when I want with my money and I'm not convinced that the real estate market will continue like this in the Bay Area. Things are way too expensive here and if I were to buy a house here, my quality of life would seriously degrade and I'm be trapped in a mortgage. To me, all the same con arguments against DVC membership apply to owning a home. Yes, sure, I get the value of your home goes up over time, but, IMO, what good is that if you're financially trapped in the meantime b/c of a mortgage, and then you're 60 when it's finally paid off and then you can live again. I want to live now!! Besides, the argument about the long-term value of a house incorrectly assumes that I'm not investing for retirement the money I would be spending on a mortgage.
My mom's arguments are all financial, mine are all emotional. I look at it this way:
1) Yes, WDW may suck in 40 years, 30 years, etc... but a meteor could also strike the Earth and wipe out all human life...
2) Sure, I could get laid off, gawd knows the tech industry is not exactly stable lately, and that is a risk. But even if I got laid off, I'm assuming I could find a job somewhere doing something.
3) The value of a DVC necessarily goes down in value over a time... to me this seems obvious... who'd want to buy 20 years down the road when there's only 30 years left versus 50 years now? But that misses the point... I wouldn't buy into it for it's resale value. As a friend put it, I essentially think of it as "prepaid vacations". It's for me and if I get too frail to enjoy it, my brother's family, or my family if that ever happens... I usually go to WDW twice a year, I go to DL many many times, I go to DLP... I go on Disney vacations more than the average bear. I don't see how this could not help me.
People make arguments about it being cheaper than paying for a Deluxe, or factor in the cost of refrigerators, or the price of hotels over time. None of that really applies to me. The fact is, if I didn't buy a DVC, does that mean I would always stay in Deluxe? Heck no. If I want to go for a quick and cheap trip, I do Value Resorts, especially if I have a free flight and my AP is still valid. Free flight + valid AP + value resort at AP rate = dirt cheap trip. So from a purely financial point of view, DVC might not be the cheapest way for me to go since I do pretty good by AP discounts and almost always go in the off-season (FL is awesome weather-wise Oct-Jan). This year I will stay at Deluxe twice because I wanted the experience and yes, DVC would have made that way cheaper. But would I rather always stay at Deluxe? You betcha!! And I'm sure hotel rates will go up over time so I'm sure locking in the DVC rate is good financially. But for the past several years, with AP discounts and 9/11, Disney resort rates have pretty much stayed the same so that's not a big factor in my decision making either.
The only other con is that, yes, as others have said, you can use the points at other non-DVC Disney resort, but the point cost is MUCH higher. Yes, I could use the points at an exchange resort, but again, point cost MUCH higher. So I look at this as essentially locking myself to always staying at DVC resorts. That would mean I can't *as easily* at a whim decide I want to stay AK Lodge this time, or Coronado next time, etc. I can, but the cost is considerably higher. Also, I usually like to take a book-ended week (4 weekend days + 5 weekdays). That's what I do now and I can get the cheap AP rates. Others have said your point usage is more effective if you don't stay weekends. Then, for me, that's not a fair comparison. Flexibility means I stay when I want to stay, and that's something I'd have to take into consideration about the true value of DVC.
The way I figure it, I'd need a minimum of 200 points ($19k) to stay for 2 weeks at SSR during the Adventure Season. That would be the closest equivalent to my trip patterns now. It does mean I'd have to plan further ahead and I'm known for sometimes deciding I just want to up and go to Disney World.
Now if rumors are true and Disney is considering DVC offerings in CA, that would seriously motivate my interest further. Assuming any DVC resort in CA is treated the same as a DVC resort in FL and that current DVC members would be able to stay at those as easily as they can other existing DVC resorts.