Iger Says Avatar Most Likely 2015, Hints at Marvel, More Pirates and Cars

[Pitchforkman]

In order for them to make up $200 million loss on John Carter via DVD sales, at $25 bucks a Blu-ray, That would mean 8 million sales... Not everyone has blu ray, so increase that number if the standard def DVD is sold at $19.99.... They would have to sell, probably, 10 million copies...

If John Carter only sells 200,000 copies, at $25 bucks a copy, that's $5 million bucks...

I was just jokingly throwing out a number. They will not make back the 200 million

 

[Gregoryp73]

I was surprised this film got the funding it did...

250,000,000 production
100,000,000 marketing...

How does a film get that much money thrown at it and not be on everyone's lips??

That marvel acquisition is looking better and better. Marvel alone will account for 10 blockbusters easy.

Also many of these other movies such as Hunger Games, HP, and so on have a built in audience...schools have been handing these off as reading assignments for quite some time. John Carter goes back almost a century!!

Also I think Disney is figuring in DVD and Bluray projections in with the loss...

 

[thehowiet]

I still contest that the traditional forms are not changing. As much as people think that streaming and having non physical copies is the wave of the future the vast majority of people like having a physical copy and will always like it.

I agree that at the moment, the majority of people still want that physical copy; however, I think it's hard to argue that there hasn't been a recent shift in how people are beginning to access, watch, and store their movies. With the cloud, services like Netflix Streaming, iTunes, etc., its already happening. Of course physical media isn't going to disappear over night, but it will eventually become obsolete, which is what we are seeing with the CD. It has been a gradual shift, but it's happening. As these movie streaming and cloud-based storage services become more evolved and refined, we'll see the same thing happen to DVD and Blu-ray. In roughly a decade you will likely have some teenagers that will have never owned a CD, and in time the same will happen with regards to DVD/Blu-ray. Obviously the end of all physical media sales is quite a ways off and will take time, but we are seeing the very beginning of a huge paradigm shift which will, and I believe is already beginning to, have an impact on the movie industry.

 

[devoy1701]

I was surprised this film got the funding it did...

250,000,000 production
100,000,000 marketing...

How does a film get that much money thrown at it and not be on everyone's lips??

That marvel acquisition is looking better and better. Marvel alone will account for 10 blockbusters easy.

Also many of these other movies such as Hunger Games, HP, and so on have a built in audience...schools have been handing these off as reading assignments for quite some time. John Carter goes back almost a century!!

Also I think Disney is figuring in DVD and Bluray projections in with the loss...

Because it was an early March release that had relatively low marketing in the weeks building up to it, and virtually no marketing once it opened.

And the first book was written in 1912 (released 1914 or 1916) so it does go back a century!

 

[lebeau]

The box office game has been evolving for a long time now. I first saw it happening in the early 90s as movies started opening on more and more screens. Studios began fighting to get their film on as many screens as possible. Runs became shorter as video release windows became faster and faster.

These days, it's rare for a movie to "have legs". Studios would rather make all their money up front anyway when they get the biggest piece of the pie. So they have conditioned people to see a movie opening weekend or wait for video (which is now right around the corner). If you miss opening weekend, there will most likely be a new buzz movie next weekend anyway.

Since every movie is an "event" (or at least tries to be one) few movies really are.

Long story short, the studios live and die by the opening weekend these days. And that's more true as home video sales dwindle away. So, what makes these "blockbusters" worth the risk?

Worldwide box office. Pirates 4 would have been a massive disappointment last summer. But it opened big overseas. That used to be cold comfort. But today, the overseas market is getting to be a bigger piece of the overall pie. And these movies play great regardless of culture or language barriers.

More and more, the studios are looking overseas for their returns. (oh, plus they still love 3-D out there)

It's been crazy watching the game evolve over the last couple of decades. I saw some of it coming (shorter runs have been a long time coming) but I never saw 3-D or the growth of overseas box office. I'll be interested to see where things go from here. But I do miss the old model where a little movie could build steam over a months-long run.

 

[RSoxNo1]

Most movies make between 2.75-3.5x their opening weekend for domestic box office. That's usually a good metric. You can go even further and apply the same numbers for the friday opening being between 2.75-3.5x of the entire opening weekend. Usually the multiplier is higher based on how wide the audience is(G vs. PG vs PG13 vs R).

 

[flavious27]

In order for them to make up $200 million loss on John Carter via DVD sales, at $25 bucks a Blu-ray, That would mean 8 million sales... Not everyone has blu ray, so increase that number if the standard def DVD is sold at $19.99.... They would have to sell, probably, 10 million copies...

If John Carter only sells 200,000 copies, at $25 bucks a copy, that's $5 million bucks...

Well considering that deathly hollows sold 7 million last year, this movie will not come close to that.

Green Lantern made back its production budget, and a bit over at least, not counting whatever it made on DVD.

John Carter still has 80 million dollars to go before it reaches its budget alone, forgoing advertisement costs. It will make pennies the rest of its domestic run with Hunger Games releasing this week and eating up a ton of screens.

So no, at this point, Green Lantern is not a bigger flop, although it was a horrible movie.

And just getting to its production budget is only halfway to breaking even.

 

[Pitchforkman]

Most movies make between 2.75-3.5x their opening weekend for domestic box office. That's usually a good metric. You can go even further and apply the same numbers for the friday opening being between 2.75-3.5x of the entire opening weekend. Usually the multiplier is higher based on how wide the audience is(G vs. PG vs PG13 vs R).

I cant remember if it was Thor or Captain America but one of those movies had like the lowest drop from first week to second week it was amazing. It was something like only a 30-40% drop it was amazing.