I know. But if I can get out to avoid said possible tornadoes and power outages it's something I'm willing to do.
I have provided the specific code references in two different codes. I even copied over one of the code diagrams and provided the applicable cross references for similar diagrams. I don’t know what your contractor told you or gave you, but what you are stating here is absolutely incorrect. For much of central Florida, including the counties around Orlando and not even that far from Tampa, impact protection for openings is not required.I said impact resistant. And I'm looking at the info for the windows my contractor gave me.
I have provided the specific code references in two different codes. I even copied over one of the code diagrams and provided the applicable cross references for similar diagrams. I don’t know what your contractor told you or gave you, but what you are stating here is absolutely incorrect. For much of central Florida, including the counties around Orlando and not even that far from Tampa, impact protection for openings is not required.
Right now 75 up to the Villages is packed with sporadic delays to Ocala , 95 seems to be moving normallyWhich little town in Georgia did you decide to land in? I'm wondering if I-95 might be a better route than I-75.
Right now 75 up to the Villages is packed with sporadic delays to Ocala , 95 seems to be moving normally
The Villages are off of the Turnpike, not I-75.
Frankly, I'd take 417, 408 or other non-Turnpike or I-4 roads to I-95.
I don’t care. Your statements about the Florida Building Code and its requirements are incorrect. Your posts do not specify location and the closest they do is still incorrect. I have provided citations and even posted the map of the wind-borne debris regions that applies to most buildings.I'm not talking about my home in Winter Garden. I'm renovating my other home in the Panhandle. Which was built in 1981...before the FBC.
I lived in Florida for 20+ years near the west coast and never evac'ed. For Charlie I went to a concrete 7 story building but never left the state even though I was less than 20 miles from the coast, for Milton I would already be in Georgia and headed north. This is the scariest one I have seen.I know. But if I can get out to avoid said possible tornadoes and power outages it's something I'm willing to do.
Richmond HillWhich little town in Georgia did you decide to land in? I'm wondering if I-95 might be a better route than I-75.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 072354
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
...CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF MILTON HAS FALLEN TO A NEAR RECORD
LOW...
...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 90.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...897 MB...26.49 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line
northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian
River County Line southward to Flamingo
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 90.4 West. Milton is moving
toward the east near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is
expected through tonight followed by a turn toward the east-
northeast and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Milton is forecast to move near or just north
of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Tuesday, then cross the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula
on Wednesday.
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds
remain near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a
potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected,
Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane
through landfall in Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).
The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 897 mb (26.49 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...2-4 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of
considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the
potential for moderate to major river flooding.
Milton will also produce rainfall totals 4 to 7 inches across the
Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of
2 to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected
across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in
Mexico within a few hours, with tropical storm conditions currently
occurring. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in
Mexico beginning tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions
are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning tonight.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west
coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical
storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions
could begin along the east coast of Florida in the watch areas on
Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning
Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early Wednesday
and will spread northward through the day. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area on the east coast of Florida by
Wednesday night and along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on
Thursday.
SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Papin
They just got power back in the last day or two.Richmond Hill
He’s going to have to wait till Thursday/Friday to knowQuestion my friend has…
They have a planned trip for Disney world starting this Saturday.
They are ultimately concerned about flooding and what will ultimately be opened and closed.
They don’t want to waste their money if they can still cancel and jeopardize their safety with flash flooding events.
Are you still predicting a Homosassa landfall? Obviously that would be a preferable outcome for everyone in the WDW area, so I'd love to see you be right about that.Code:000 WTNT34 KNHC 072354 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 700 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF MILTON HAS FALLEN TO A NEAR RECORD LOW... ...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 90.4W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...897 MB...26.49 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Rio Lagartos * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche * Campeche to south of Celestun * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cancun * Campeche to south of Celestun * All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for… * East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line southward to Flamingo * Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 90.4 West. Milton is moving toward the east near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected through tonight followed by a turn toward the east- northeast and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move near or just north of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 897 mb (26.49 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft Tampa Bay...10-15 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...2-4 ft Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals 4 to 7 inches across the Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico within a few hours, with tropical storm conditions currently occurring. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in Mexico beginning tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions could begin along the east coast of Florida in the watch areas on Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early Wednesday and will spread northward through the day. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the east coast of Florida by Wednesday night and along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Papin
View attachment 819644
Code:000 WTNT34 KNHC 072354 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 700 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF MILTON HAS FALLEN TO A NEAR RECORD LOW... ...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 90.4W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...897 MB...26.49 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Rio Lagartos * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche * Campeche to south of Celestun * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cancun * Campeche to south of Celestun * All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for… * East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line southward to Flamingo * Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 90.4 West. Milton is moving toward the east near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected through tonight followed by a turn toward the east- northeast and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move near or just north of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 897 mb (26.49 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft Tampa Bay...10-15 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...2-4 ft Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals 4 to 7 inches across the Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico within a few hours, with tropical storm conditions currently occurring. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in Mexico beginning tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions could begin along the east coast of Florida in the watch areas on Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early Wednesday and will spread northward through the day. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the east coast of Florida by Wednesday night and along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Papin
View attachment 819644
I have the same question as @Brian is your prediction the same?Are you still predicting a Homosassa landfall? Obviously that would be a preferable outcome for everyone in the WDW area, so I'd love to see you be right about that.
Are you still predicting a Homosassa landfall? Obviously that would be a preferable outcome for everyone in the WDW area, so I'd love to see you be right about that.
I have the same question as @Brian is your prediction the same?
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