Hurricane Irma

[MisterPenguin]

Up to 44% of Florida without power. Many of the southern and coastal counties are at 50% - 90% outage. https://poweroutage.us/Area/State/Florida

 

[Andrew C]

No, but it shows where it's going.

Not really. They are still predicting it to go through Tampa. I mean they could be wrong by it's not far off from there now.

 

[SorcererMC]

I suspect the reason for the discrepancy is because Irma made landfall at Naples today instead of at Tampa and I suspect that the national model will show this change at the 11pm update.

ETA: Hurricane Donna had a Naples landfall.

 

[MisterPenguin]

If y'all please: When you post a claim about the storm, always provide a link.

This will stop all the "The eye wall is now doing barrel rolls! // Where did you hear that?" posts.

Thanks!

 

[donsullivan]

All the models I'm seeing shows the center still staying close to the west coast.

The models always show a cone of probability. You should NEVER just look at the line up the center. The storm has drifted very much to the east of that cone and is now headed on a path that looks like it will take it north on a path just to the west of downtown Orlando.

 

[ford91exploder]

Sorry if this was discussed but looks like this storm took a straight path up through Naples and is heading right for Orlando, rather that curving up the coast and hitting Tampa, as predicted. Can anyone in Fl confirm?

Intellicast St Petersburg radar shows track heading straight for Orlando, Note this is RADAR not a computer model so this is the actual track of the storm.

 

[smp2k6]

Really disliking the meteorologist on WESH2 talking about the eye wall moving due north, and could follow the Lake/Orange county line. That's 5-10 miles away from my Dad's house (as well as taking it just west of WDW). I had been figuring this would give him an "interesting, but not TOO interesting" story to tell." That's getting a little too close for comfort.

Not liking the new track either. Our hotel is 3 miles away from the orange/lake county line. Hoping for the best. Praying for everyone, including your Dad.

 

[Andrew C]

If you watch the radar from the last couple of hours, you can see a clear movement north. The NHC track is wrong

I'm looking at the models, not the NHC track. But if some stations are reporting it through Orlando, I hope it's not too bad.

 

[LAKid53]

If y'all please: When you post a claim about the storm, always provide a link.

This will stop all the "The eye wall is now doing barrel rolls! // Where did you hear that?" posts.

Thanks!

The eyewall can do barrel rolls?! Cool.

Needed some levity....

 

[Andrew C]

This is where I have looked online for the most part. Shows NHC forecast and some models.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#11L

 

[Disneydreamer23]

ughhhh

 

[disney4life2008]

Where are you getting that update from? The 8 PM update from the National Hurricane Center is showing a direct hit for Tampa Bay. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone

Abc Orlando. I live here

 

[disney4life2008]

Power just went out on the east side of Orlando

 

[JimW]

Abc Orlando. I live here

The National Hurricane Center is saying something completely different. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone

Do you have a more reliable source?

 

[donsullivan]

The National Hurricane Center is saying something completely different. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone

Do you have a more reliable source?

That forecast is from 2 hours ago. It has taken a different path since then and is on a track that would take it right through central Florida.

Go to the below link and look at the actual radar track and you can see if moving inland from the coast and headed toward central Florida. It could change again but it is current headed in this direction.

https://www.clickorlando.com

 

[LAKid53]

Update due at 10.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Power just went out on the east side of Orlando

Yeah... Orange County was at 27% outage a few minutes ago, now at 35%... https://poweroutage.us/Area/County/332

 

[wdwms]

Two things about the track, sometimes the eye (or what is left of it) will no longer be the center of movement. Second this storm and all others, if you've been following it very closely, will wobble from time to time. Not saying it hasn't taken a more northerly route, but just be aware if it does seem to "shift back west"..

If it does remain north, those that "pierce" the center of the eye/circulation will experience a brief period of intense winds, then the calm of the eye, and then a brief period of intense wind. Those on E or W of that will have more intense winds, the further out you go the less calm in the middle.. its a circle folks.

 

[SorcererMC]

I'm looking at the models, not the NHC track. But if some stations are reporting it through Orlando, I hope it's not too bad.

and @JimW
This is from yesterday afternoon 2pm, which seem to show Naples landfall....although on tv yesterday they kept talking about Tampa.
I'm not a meteorologist so did not post it but IMO here is some evidence that the models have had some accuracy.

 

[Ismael Flores]

Sarasota bay has been draining and many manatees being Stranded in knee high mud.
People out rescuing them by putting them as best as possible in tarps and lugging them out Into deeper waters.

God bless them for doing that to these beautiful creatures that need help

 

[JimW]

That forecast is from 2 hours ago. It has taken a different path since then and is on a track that would take it right through central Florida.

Thanks for the information. It's surprising to me that it'd shift that dramatically in such a short amount of time. However, I've been more wrong on many occasions. Thanks Don.