Sans Souci
Well-Known Member
I am supposed to fly in Saturday night, I am thinking that might be a no-go. Whatever happens, it's out of my hands. I hope everyone in its path stays safe.
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Hurricane Irma
- Thread starter JohnD
- Start date
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
Or... It could run slightly south and get torn apart by the mountains in Hispaniola and Cuba. Has been going that way over the last few days.
MM311
Active Member
We are supposed to arrive early Saturday afternoon, which is looking to be about a day before the storm, hoping this thing decides to prove everyone wrong and turn back out to sea...
But I can honestly say I've learned a lot more about hurricanes than I ever thought I would over the past few days, terrifying and fascinating
But I can honestly say I've learned a lot more about hurricanes than I ever thought I would over the past few days, terrifying and fascinating
wdwjmp239
Well-Known Member
The track shifted and put IRMA over the straits. I saw that track 12 hours ago when the track was over the mountainous region of Cuba and weakened it to a Cat 3 (after forecasted at a Cat 4). The 8pm advisory is coming out soon. We'll see where that track lays.
21stamps
Well-Known Member
I am more worried about the impact on the Florida Keys from this prediction.
Either way, its way too early to tell. Vacationers- don't cancel your plans yet, unless you absolutely want to go on another week. Stay calm and keep watching
wdwjmp239
Well-Known Member
The Keys will severely impacted based on the current forecast. Call ahead before you do anything.
21stamps
Well-Known Member
Yep, and they haven't issued evacuations yet. Storms change paths all of the time. I'm hoping this one does as well.
And just a reminder to anyone looking at the map.. the Keys are quite a bit south of Orlando.
donsullivan
Premium Member
You really should not use last years hurricane Matthew as a baseline as that was mostly a rain event, vs a wind event. The current projection (and it's very early and likely to change) is far closer to the path that Charlie took back in 2004. That was the major wind storm that did significant damage to the Orlando metro area including at Walt Disney World.
It's true that Disney's building codes are far more stringent than much of the surrounding area was (current state code is based on the Epcot code following hurricane Andrew) and as a result, except in the most severe storm, you'll likely be quite safe hunkered down in your resort room to ride out the storm.
In 2004, all the parks closed early as the storm approached and after it passed, Animal Kingdom did not open the next day due to serious tree and foliage damage throughout the parks. All 3 other parks did open (I'm pretty sure they all opened late) the day after the storm (I went to Studios that day)
Some things to keep in mind if you'll be visiting late this week into the weekend:
- It is your personal responsibility to keep up with the weather forecast and understand what is happening with the storm including it's path and schedule. Do not sit back and expect Disney to keep you personally updated- take responsibility for yourself and your family. EDIT: In addition, do not just check in the morning and think you're good. The day Charlie came thru we were supposed to be on the edges of it and then all of sudden at ~11AM it took a sudden right turn and came straight for Orlando. You need to monitor throughout the day.
- If as you're tracking the storm it looks like it's coming close you should assume you may need to spend 1-2 days in your resort room and will need supplies accordingly. If you have access to a vehicle, head off property and stock up on the things your family might want/need if you're cooped up for a day or two. If you do not have a car, consider Uber, taxi or similar to get you to a market offsite and back again. There are only limited options and they'll be wiped out quick in the resort shops. Depending on the intensity of the storm, you cannot always count on all of the restaurants operating normally, and it may not always be safe to be out walking to and from a restaurant.
- If you are caught in a serious storm condition, do not start taking out your frustrations that this or that isn't available, or there's nothing to do on the cast members. Keep in mind that each of those cast members is away from their homes and families and have no idea what damage their homes may be experiencing as a result of the storm. They're stressed about their homes, not their vacation so take it easy on them.
- The bottom line is that everyone should take responsibility for themselves to stay informed and be effectively prepared for the storm and not just sit back and expect Disney to take care of you. In an emergency situation their first responsibility is safety. They'll put a major effort forth to do what they can but don't go in expecting all kinds of 'extra' during the storm period as that's not the priority.
A lot of the above is based on a lot of the complaints I heard after Charlie came through in 2004 and did major, major damage in the area.
It's true that Disney's building codes are far more stringent than much of the surrounding area was (current state code is based on the Epcot code following hurricane Andrew) and as a result, except in the most severe storm, you'll likely be quite safe hunkered down in your resort room to ride out the storm.
In 2004, all the parks closed early as the storm approached and after it passed, Animal Kingdom did not open the next day due to serious tree and foliage damage throughout the parks. All 3 other parks did open (I'm pretty sure they all opened late) the day after the storm (I went to Studios that day)
Some things to keep in mind if you'll be visiting late this week into the weekend:
- It is your personal responsibility to keep up with the weather forecast and understand what is happening with the storm including it's path and schedule. Do not sit back and expect Disney to keep you personally updated- take responsibility for yourself and your family. EDIT: In addition, do not just check in the morning and think you're good. The day Charlie came thru we were supposed to be on the edges of it and then all of sudden at ~11AM it took a sudden right turn and came straight for Orlando. You need to monitor throughout the day.
- If as you're tracking the storm it looks like it's coming close you should assume you may need to spend 1-2 days in your resort room and will need supplies accordingly. If you have access to a vehicle, head off property and stock up on the things your family might want/need if you're cooped up for a day or two. If you do not have a car, consider Uber, taxi or similar to get you to a market offsite and back again. There are only limited options and they'll be wiped out quick in the resort shops. Depending on the intensity of the storm, you cannot always count on all of the restaurants operating normally, and it may not always be safe to be out walking to and from a restaurant.
- If you are caught in a serious storm condition, do not start taking out your frustrations that this or that isn't available, or there's nothing to do on the cast members. Keep in mind that each of those cast members is away from their homes and families and have no idea what damage their homes may be experiencing as a result of the storm. They're stressed about their homes, not their vacation so take it easy on them.
- The bottom line is that everyone should take responsibility for themselves to stay informed and be effectively prepared for the storm and not just sit back and expect Disney to take care of you. In an emergency situation their first responsibility is safety. They'll put a major effort forth to do what they can but don't go in expecting all kinds of 'extra' during the storm period as that's not the priority.
A lot of the above is based on a lot of the complaints I heard after Charlie came through in 2004 and did major, major damage in the area.
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wdwjmp239
Well-Known Member
They will once Hurricane Watches have been posted. But, I will tell you right now that Governor Scott issued a state of emergency for Florida. If I was in Key West, I'd be leaving now just to err on the side of caution because it's like you said.... "storms change paths."
8pm Advisory - hot off the press:
21stamps
Well-Known Member
The toughest decision about evacuating the Keys this far in advance, is that you may end up being worse off than if you would have stayed.
Difficult decision, and not a lot of flights. I think a few will leave but a lot will stay unless an evacuation is actually ordered, and even then some will unfortunately stay put.
Personally I wouldn't evacuate from anywhere this early, I would make sure my fuel tank is full and that I have plenty of supplies.
This would be my suggestion for vacation travelers as well.
@donsullivan gave some great tips. Regardless of flying or driving, pack some extra food items in your luggage, also a deck of cards, games etc. If you're driving- make sure you have a full tank on arrival.
wdwjmp239
Well-Known Member
Where I am in Fort Myers (a few hours north of Key West) in Lee County, we're pretty close to I-75, so we're inland and not really in a flood plain (even though last weekend's rains proved otherwise). But, the winds from IRMA will be off-shore so if there's any storm surge - it'll be minimal as the water will be pushed out into the Gulf (Caloosahatchee River, Naples Bay, etc.....) - expect lower than normal tides.
For those flying in, major airlines will typically cancel arriving flights within 48 hours prior to the storm hitting. They do not want to have any assets at the airports affected during the storm. United for example has already warned travelers that flights to Puerto Rico between the 5 and 7 will likely be disrupted or canceled. My guess is that after Friday, you will not be able to get on a flight to MCO, regardless of carrier.
David copperfield
Member
We are set to arrive 9/11...where do you want to be on one of the worst days except "the happiest place on earth" We are yankees driving down, mostly concerned about the wisdom of driving into or thru a hurricane--- road closures, flooding & windy conditions.
shipley731
Well-Known Member
I'm running a meeting scheduled for this coming weekend 9/8-10. (I work for a nonprofit society.). My board is calling to cancel, but I'm 98% sure that she unless the storm is directly targeting Orlando, the contract stays in tact & is enforceable. I'm not at a Disney hotel, but in 2008 we had a similar situation with hurricane Hannah. I'm hoping the storm takes a turn & Florida is safe.
21stamps
Well-Known Member
I don't know about that. Depends on where the path goes. As it stands now there is a huge distance between the projection and Orlando, though it could change at any point.
Stay safe!
It's been nearly 100 years since the Keys have seen a direct hit, I'd prefer it to stay that way. I had a housefull of people who evacuated from KW bc of Wilma, to my house in South Palm Beach County.. as everyone knows, Wilma didn't hit the Keys, but it did hit PBC. They were stuck at my house for 2 weeks as a result. I was in a mandatory evacuation zone by the time the correct path was predicted, we all chose to stay due to non existent flight options and no desire to go out on the highway.
I don't recommend staying in a mandatory evacuation zone, ever. But I understand why people are hesitant to evacuate this early in advance.
@21stamps Do me a favor and just stop. It has not been a 100 years since the keys took a direct hit. Hurricanes Mitch, Georges, and Irene in 1998 and 1999 did a ton of damage to the Florida keys. Do not encourage complaceny. This has the potential to be a catastrophic storm that will cause death and damage. There are going to be people severely affected by this storm and the last thing any of them are concerned about is people making sure they get the MK for the fast pass for Splash Mountain. Let's all hope for the best, but expect the worse.
If you have to cancel or delay your trip the WDW you'll survive the disappointment. I'm not even going to finish the rest of that thought.
wdwjmp239
Well-Known Member
We plan on it! I've been through a number of hurricanes. Before living in Florida, I was born and raised on Long Island where I saw:
Hurricane Gloria (1985)
Hurricane Bob (1991)
Florida:
Hurricane Andrew (1992) - Miami landfall - but cut across the state and made Naples pretty windy that day
Hurricane Charley (2004) - Well...2004 was just a busy year - we had a hurricane every other weekend that year. Mostly close calls
Hurricane Wilma (2005) - This storm broke my weather station - measured a wind gust of 155 mph and that was the end of that. Bye bye $850.00 weather station. Tried to reclaim it in an insurance claim along with other damage, but they didn't value it at $850 and what the insurance company was going to give me, it would've bought one of those cheap-o weather stations you see at Walgreens/CVS. LOL!
Hurricane Sandy (2012) - I happened to be in NY visiting family when she paid NY a visit.
Hurricane Matthew (2016) - We got side-swiped down here, but it got windy!
Hurricane IRMA (2017) - Might as well add this one to my list.
I'm sure there were others...but these are the most memorable.
donsullivan
Premium Member
It's kind of scary how nearly all of the models are showing pretty much the same path that far into the future. Nearly all of them also are showing it heading north at some point late on Saturday as it gets close to the southern tip of Florida. They vary on when it will turn north but there does seem to be a growing consensus that it's going along the path noted above and then heading north to hit Florida, it's just too early right now to pinpoint landfall and path, and as a result the areas of impact.
wdwjmp239
Well-Known Member
Yep...even though we're in the 5 day cone....they won't get a good feel for this until Wednesday. Sit and wait. Might as well crack open a cold beer while we're waiting, huh?