Hurricane Ian expected to impact Florida (updates and related discussions)

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
Just watched Polk County news they have Ian making land fall just above Tampa which is not good they will get the full storm surge of 8-11' they are predicting. If you live in a flood zone leave.
Saw on social media that gridlock of vehicles trying to get out of Tampa last night via I-4 headed towards the direction of Kissimmee/ Orlando . The Pinellas admin advised a 1 hour normal drivetime could take up to 10 hours. Anyone who left earlier was wiser.
 
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Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
It continues to move East/south. Centerline now goes just south of Tampa. That would be better for the bay as surge is always worse south of the eye. Not much better, but slightly better. Of course what’s good for Tampa is bad for points south as surge will now be higher there. Also track is bringing eye much closer to Orlando, and while yes it will likely be back to a TS, if the eye passes over Orlando it will mean the difference between 6-10 inches of rain vs 10-15. If the eye passes over WDW we could be looking at some major flooding.

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Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Looks like things picked up over night…125 mph this far out ain’t looking good.
Yes offically a Cat 3 well on the way to Cat 4 which makes it a major hurricane. It’s also important to note, the more south landfall is, the stronger the storm will be at landfall. As of now it will likely be a major (Cat 3+) at landfall.
 

JohnD

Well-Known Member
It continues to move East/south. Centerline now goes just south of Tampa. That would be better for the bay as surge is always worse south of the eye. Not much better, but slightly better. Of course what’s good for Tampa is bad for points south as surge will now be higher there. Also track is bringing eye much closer to Orlando, and while yes it will likely be back to a TS, if the eye passes over Orlando it will mean the difference between 6-10 inches of rain vs 10-15. If the eye passes over WDW we could be looking at some major flooding.

View attachment 669470
This thing now looks like it's going straight up the I-4 corridor. But darn it, winds won't be strong enough to topple this.

A54C00DD-9043-458D-B633-44A281DAEDDD.jpeg

But okay. For everyone else's sake, I guess it can stay a little longer.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Yes offically a Cat 3 well on the way to Cat 4 which makes it a major hurricane. It’s also important to note, the more south landfall is, the stronger the storm will be at landfall. As of now it will likely be a major (Cat 3+) at landfall.
…I’ll take the “Over”

One thing that seems to be more and more prevalent is the weather peeps overestimating blizzards and underestimating Canes
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Not looking good for the theme park area on the latest track. Very strong winds and flooding predicted. I expect to see some damage around wdw property and major prep to be seen today
You’re right, now essentially a lock for TS strength winds and odds climbing for hurricane force ones. Which when combined with soaking rains well before the winds means lots of tree damage leading to widespread power outages. Also disclaimer this is still based off the 11pm track.

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DryerLintFan

Premium Member


I know this is from 8 hours ago but it shows other models hitting much more southern like Charley. Unfortunately right where my people are.

But I just wanted to post it as a reminder that all those shaded areas that are “maybe” are still in play. It’s not a given where Ian will land. Not yet, anyway.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
View attachment 669478
People in Orlando need to heed point 5.
Residents in Central FL are surrounded by lakes and or retention ponds. A 6-10 inch downpour and the grounds are already much saturated and a hurricane on top of it, will likely flood a number of areas including roadways. If one thinks parks and tourism areas open up by the weekend , if the roadways are impassable it will be one of the challenges.
 
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DCBaker

Premium Member
"Due to severe inclement weather conditions expected to impact the Central Florida area over the next few days, the Walt Disney World Resort officially confirmed that Star Wars: Galactic Starcruiser will be cancelling their next two voyages with dates starting on September 27 and September 29. As of now, normal operations are expected to be resumed on October 1, but that could change depending on the intensity of the storm and how the resort is affected by it."

 

mightynine

Well-Known Member
…I’ll take the “Over”

One thing that seems to be more and more prevalent is the weather peeps overestimating blizzards and underestimating Canes
The NHC has pegged Ian to be a major hurricane for days now so I don’t think anyone has underestimated this one, but intensity forecasts are still tough.

I recommend reading the discussions the NHC puts out every six hours on a storm. They can get a little technical, but their forecasters are always upfront about how much confidence they have in the latest cone and their intensity forecasts.

 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Saw on social media that gridlock of vehicles trying to get out of Tampa last night via I-4 headed towards the direction of Kissimmee/ Orlando . The Pinellas admin advised a 1 hour normal drivetime could take up to 10 hours. Anyone who left earlier was wiser.
I wonder if they are reversing westbound or northbound lanes on on any roadways to try and increase capacity out of Tampa.

The issue with these evacuations is that a lot more people evacuate than should be evacuating. Only the people who are ordered or recommended to evacuate should be doing so because of the flooding/storm surge risk. People who evacuate because they don't want to be home in a power outage clog up the roads for the people who NEED to get out.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
The NHC has pegged Ian to be a major hurricane for days now so I don’t think anyone has underestimated this one, but intensity forecasts are still tough.

I recommend reading the discussions the NHC puts out every six hours on a storm. They can get a little technical, but their forecasters are always upfront about how much confidence they have in the latest cone and their intensity forecasts.

Oh I think they have it figured close to right…but the intensity is the thing - as you point out.

Honestly…considering the thick skulls of humans…I’d rather they inflate threat (like line lengths).
People tend to put avoiding
inconvenience as a higher priority than safety or common sense. Tough guarding everyone against themselves.

Hopefully this putters out some
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I wonder if they are reversing westbound or northbound lanes on on any roadways to try and increase capacity out of Tampa.

The issue with these evacuations is that a lot more people evacuate than should be evacuating. Only the people who are ordered or recommended to evacuate should be doing so because of the flooding/storm surge risk. People who evacuate because they don't want to be home in a power outage clog up the roads for the people who NEED to get out.
That goes against instinct/biology - however.

No county sheriff is gonna override that.

Florida. It is what it is.

And the problem with reversing lanes is every exit would be a tangle and there isn’t staffing to direct traffic. It would also flood all the feeders. Roads are designed without major spikes in volume to account for…or they’d all be twice as many lanes.
 
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Lilofan

Well-Known Member
I wonder if they are reversing westbound or northbound lanes on on any roadways to try and increase capacity out of Tampa.

The issue with these evacuations is that a lot more people evacuate than should be evacuating. Only the people who are ordered or recommended to evacuate should be doing so because of the flooding/storm surge risk. People who evacuate because they don't want to be home in a power outage clog up the roads for the people who NEED to get out.
I saw on video that emergency shoulder travel lane was going to used to get more out of harms way. You made a great point. A number of folks who are not part of evac zone do also get on the roads for their own personal reason. Buddies of mine got on the road in a previous storm because when you are warned of extensive power outages , flooding etc, some also want to get the heck out of Dodge and drive into an area with power and safer ground. The hotel rooms will probably be hard to come by. When some experienced being out of power for days or weeks from past experience I don’t fault them from driving away too.
 

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