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Hurricane Helene (2024)
- Thread starter Gringrinngghost
- Start date
Code:
000
WTUS82 KMLB 241502
TCVMLB
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Helene Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 5
National Weather Service Melbourne FL AL092024
1102 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
FLZ053-242230-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Osceola-
1102 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Kissimmee
- Yeehaw Junction
- Harmony
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 25-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
to 57 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force.
- PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
- ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: 2-4 inches, with locally higher
amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
localized flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
localized flooding from heavy rain.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter
currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become swollen and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in
usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding
of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor
drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds
become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and
bridge closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- Family emergency plans: Federal Emergency Management Agency
- https://www.ready.gov
- Local weather conditions and forecasts
- http://www.weather.gov/mlb
$$
Code:
FLZ046-242230-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Seminole-
1102 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Sanford
- Altamonte Springs
- Oviedo
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
to 57 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force.
- PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
- ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: 2-4 inches, with locally higher
amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
localized flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
localized flooding from heavy rain.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter
currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become swollen and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in
usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding
of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor
drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds
become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and
bridge closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- Family emergency plans: Federal Emergency Management Agency
- https://www.ready.gov
- Local weather conditions and forecasts
- http://www.weather.gov/mlb
$$
Code:
FLZ045-242230-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Orange-
1102 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Orlando
- Apopka
- Christmas
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 25-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
to 57 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force.
- PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
- ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: 2-4 inches, with locally higher
amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
localized flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
localized flooding from heavy rain.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter
currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become swollen and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in
usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding
of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor
drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds
become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and
bridge closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- Family emergency plans: Federal Emergency Management Agency
- https://www.ready.gov
- Local weather conditions and forecasts
- http://www.weather.gov/mlb
$$
Code:
FLZ144-242230-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Southern Lake-
1102 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Clermont
- Mascotte
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 to 55 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
to 57 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force.
- PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
- ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: 2-4 inches, with locally higher
amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
moderate flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
are possible.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
creeks, canals, and ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- Family emergency plans: Federal Emergency Management Agency
- https://www.ready.gov
- Local weather conditions and forecasts
- http://www.weather.gov/mlb
$$
Code:
FLZ044-242230-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Northern Lake-
1102 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Leesburg
- The Villages
- Mount Dora
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 to 55 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
to 57 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force.
- PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
- ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: 3-6 inches, with locally higher
amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
moderate flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
are possible.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
creeks, canals, and ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- Family emergency plans: Federal Emergency Management Agency
- https://www.ready.gov
- Local weather conditions and forecasts
- http://www.weather.gov/mlb
$$
BelleInChiTown
Member
Supposed to be flying in Friday for a milestone birthday trip and already getting notices from the airline that I should consider changing my flight. Had to cancel my October 2022 trip for Hurricane Ian, really should stop booking trips in hurricane season.
I'm not surprised at the fact it was named, but I am a bit surprised that it was not named sooner (5PM Yesterday) from the data that I was looking at in the south-east quadrant, but that's a moot point. I do not have currently confidence in the current forecast path, and think we will see an eastward shift but its all when the trough drops an area of high pressure down into the Gulf of Mexico. Admittedly the National Hurricane Center concurs with that in the forecast discussion:
I do expect to see a higher likelihood of Tropical Storm conditions for the Orlando area, as I believe that the area of Landfall will shift from the Port Leon area where it's currently expected to be closer near Stienhatchee. Do note that we are seeing this belief where the watches are as they really have not shifted then westward. I'm currently as well in agreement as a low end Category 3 at landfall, but I do believe that there is room for the forecast guidance to improve given the likely fact that the location of landfall will likely shift east by 50 miles.
Weather Watcher
New Member
It’s too early to tell, I’d wait until it enters the gulf before making any concrete predictions given its currently exposed circulation and potential interactions with the Yucatan.
Looks like we are gonna be riding this out at the AKL - we leave tomorrow afternoon and should be in Orlando before any storm impacts (arriving 7:30-8:30 depending on what time we get out of town). We had planned a resort day Thursday anyways so I guess we'll just hunker down at AKL and see what happens.
We are in the path of the storm if we go to WDW or not and frankly I'd rather ride it out at WDW than at home.
We are in the path of the storm if we go to WDW or not and frankly I'd rather ride it out at WDW than at home.
Captain Barbossa
Well-Known Member
2pm update:
EricsBiscuit
Well-Known Member
Ever so slight of a nudge westward.
I feel like the path will end up going more eastward than they are predicting right now. Even a 50 mile wobble to the east changes things greatly.
The models are (and have been) pretty tight since formation that this was going into the big bend. I don't think you'll see a huge eastern swing, especially if it interacts with the Yucatan (which it appears it may but I don't think it will be enough to weaken the storm significantly).
NOAA has a flight currently doing synoptic surveillance in the Gulf north of the Yucatan which will vastly help forecasts.
I'm not expecting a large move to the east, but I think it's going to drift a bit.
Then again, the NHC almost nailed Ian's path in 2022 5 days out. I have the screenshot.
The Mighty Tim
Well-Known Member
I'm at WDW at the moment and I was here for Ian so I'm watching this thread with interest.
I also find the scientific and meteorological discussion interesting too since I'm a bit of a weather nerd and I actually have a meteorology degree, though I'm a bit rusty with a few concepts since I graduated 20+ years ago and I never went down that career route (although I do work with meteorologists). As it happens, my area of professional expertise is the polar regions, which is about as far removed from the tropical regions as you can get!
Nonetheless, I'm finding all this discussion interesting and I for one really appreciate it!
I also find the scientific and meteorological discussion interesting too since I'm a bit of a weather nerd and I actually have a meteorology degree, though I'm a bit rusty with a few concepts since I graduated 20+ years ago and I never went down that career route (although I do work with meteorologists). As it happens, my area of professional expertise is the polar regions, which is about as far removed from the tropical regions as you can get!
Nonetheless, I'm finding all this discussion interesting and I for one really appreciate it!
Eric Graham
Well-Known Member
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
Winds currently projected to have peak gusts around 45 mph in the Orlando area Thursday afternoon.
Expect impacts on fireworks…
Expect impacts on fireworks…
Captain Barbossa
Well-Known Member
5pm update:
JohnD
Well-Known Member
That's not good. The previous map had the 2PM Thursday "M" right at the coast. Now it's still out in the ocean which means its slowing down and gets a change to strengthen even more. Gives me all the reason to leave Tallahassee tomorrow.
Ayla
Well-Known Member
Slowed down. It seems almost stationary.
Code:
000
WTNT34 KNHC 242057
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA...
...HELENE'S LARGE SIZE WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN EXTENSIVE AREA TO BE
AFFECTED BY THE STORM'S HAZARDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 84.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Flamingo to Indian Pass,
Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Anclote River to Mexico
Beach, Florida.
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Cabo
Catoche to Tulum.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Middle Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge. A Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida from
Flamingo northward to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, and west
of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coasts of
Florida and Georgia from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward
to the Savannah River, and for Lake Okeechobee.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of the Channel 5 Bridge
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Okeechobee
* Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Savannah River
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of
Florida and the southeastern United States tonight or on Wednesday.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 84.7 West. Helene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a general
northward motion beginning on Wednesday and continuing through
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Helene will pass near
the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, move
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, and
reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Helene is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. The storm
is forecast to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
and become a major hurricane on Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
to the east of the center.
Data from NOAA buoy 42056 indicate that the minimum central pressure
is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated
totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 4 to 6
inches of rain are expected with isolated totals over 8 inches.
This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.
Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12
inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable
flash and urban flooding, with areas of significant river flooding
likely, including the risk of landslides in areas of steep terrain
in the southern Appalachians.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in Mexico on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are
expected within the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
tropical storm warning area Florida on Wednesday and spread
northward through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area beginning Thursday.
SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast
of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple
of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of
Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Berg