Batman'sParents
Active Member
Impacts can vary far from the center of the storm. For example, they are also concerned about the surge out of Tampa Bay.
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Hurricane Helene (2024)
- Thread starter Gringrinngghost
- Start date
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
People at WDW right now may wish to know it will be very rainy Thursday (more than normal for September). Perhaps not a day for Typhoon Lagoon.
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This may push back the Cake Bake Shop opening by 3 years.
JohnD
Well-Known Member
I live in Leon County. Time to get the heck out of dodge on Wednesday. My folks live in Jax. I told them today to get ready. Okay, I asked. What, are they going to turn me down?
JohnD
Well-Known Member
Earlier NHC maps showed it as an "H" (Hurricane) before landfall which would be Cat 1 or 2. Now it shows "M" (Major hurricane), meaning Cat 3 or greater. This won't be like Cat 1 Hermine in 2016 or Idalia from last year. Closer to Hurricane Michael in 2019 and we know what that storm did between Panama City and Apalachicola.
JohnD
Well-Known Member
Right. NO forecasts show it aiming for Central Florida. WDW will certainly get extra wind and rain from extended rain bands. Think of it as one of Winnie the Pooh's "blustery days".
lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
If it did show an M, it’s now back to an H as of the 11:00 PM Advisory 3 update (and is the graphic currently showing in your post).Earlier NHC maps showed it as an "H" (Hurricane) before landfall which would be Cat 1 or 2. Now it shows "M" (Major hurricane), meaning Cat 3 or greater. This won't be like Cat 1 Hermine in 2016 or Idalia from last year. Closer to Hurricane Michael in 2019 and we know what that storm did between Panama City and Apalachicola.
Also remember that the cone of uncertainty is an area where the forecast says the eye could hit. Based on the most recent forecast Tampa could get a direct hit, if that happens then Orlando will get heavier wind and storms that could shut down the parks. That cone is quite large at the moment which suggests that the models aren’t agreeing with each other. You need to keep checking and be aware.
mysto
Well-Known Member
Ahead of schedule, good news.
Vacationeer
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- No
The forecast is not exact 3 days out. It’s not like nobody knows nothing though lol. May not be a huge threat to Orlando but for people visiting WDW or flying in/out later this week there’s good reason to consider preemptive options. Or is it better waiting until midday Wed to ponder Helene. The models should be much improved by then.
Code:
000
WTNT34 KNHC 240858
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 83.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Indian Pass Florida
southward to Bonita Beach Florida, including Tampa Bay and
Charlotte Harbor.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida
from Englewood northward and westward to Indian Pass, including
Tampa Bay.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Gulf Coast of
Florida from Indian Pass to the Walton/Bay County Line and from
north of Bonita Beach to south of Englewood.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Indian Pass
* Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of
Youth
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Flamingo to south of Englewood
* West of Indian Pass to Walton Bay County line
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 to 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the northeastern Gulf Coast, including the
Florida Panhandle and the Florida west Gulf coast, should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will
likely be required today.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
18.9 North, longitude 83.0 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected
later today and tonight, followed by a faster northward to
north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move
across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight, and
then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the
system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue
strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches)
based on Air Force dropsonde data.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and
WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the
Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with
isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of
considerable flooding.
Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with
isolated totals around 10 inches. This rainfall will likely result
in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with
minor to isolated moderate river flooding also possible.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in
Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the U.S. watch areas late Wednesday and early
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning
areas in Cuba and Mexico beginning later today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday in
southern Florida and the Keys, and Thursday in the Florida
Panhandle.
SURF: Swells generated by the system will affect the southern coast
of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple
of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of
Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Code:
Nine Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 4
National Weather Service Melbourne FL AL092024
508 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
FLZ045-241700-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TR.A.1009.240924T0908Z-000000T0000Z/
Orange-
508 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible
somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Orlando
- Apopka
- Christmas
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
to 57 mph
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force.
- PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
- ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 2-4 inches, with locally
higher amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
localized flooding rain
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
localized flooding from heavy rain.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter
currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become swollen and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in
usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding
of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor
drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds
become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and
bridge closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- Family emergency plans: Federal Emergency Management Agency
- https://www.ready.gov
- Local weather conditions and forecasts
- http://www.weather.gov/mlb
$$
esskay
Well-Known Member
I’m here myself till Friday so well aware. Just saying we have people always making wild predictions every time there’s the possibility of a hurricane, and viewers of this thread trying to figure things out for their trip should be reminded that everything posted here is speculative. Heck last time we had people recommending people look up where storm shelters were for what turned out to be a wet afternoon.
JohnD
Well-Known Member
Yeah. Its a live link so the graphic changes with every update. Another site still shows it as Cat 3. Its showing as M as of the 5am update from NHC.
John park hopper
Well-Known Member
Spaghetti models seem pretty consistent, looks like Orlando will get some rain which is not unusual for FL
I would like to take a moment to chime in to this.
Lastly, while this will read like I’m defending myself, I do want to publicly put this out publicly for those here to understand my mindset. You will notice that outside of very few occasions such as yesterday, will I talk about a sole weather model, as that is never a good indicator as there are many variables in play. Everything that I post in regards to the storm path or intensity will be a product of the Government (The National Hurricane Center for example), News Media, and my own analysis of the system. My analysis is backed by my academic and scientific background in meteorology, as well as the general feeling from my peers that I will talk to extensively about the system as I do take their analysis into consideration. So to those worried that what I may say is speculative, rest assured, I do know what I am talking about.
For those coming in, my best advice is to watch as things develop and to make your own informed choice on what you want to do. That being said, in terms of wild predictions that are speculative, I also very much do detest them and will fight to get any of that out of the way. Admittedly in my professional life I have thrown my proverbial weight to the point of insubordination to ensure the proper facts are delivered.
To be fair, in a Hurricane there is a greater chance of Tornadoes so it would make sense for some with a more cautious mindset to want to know where a Storm shelter would be located in the off chance of a tornado.
Lastly, while this will read like I’m defending myself, I do want to publicly put this out publicly for those here to understand my mindset. You will notice that outside of very few occasions such as yesterday, will I talk about a sole weather model, as that is never a good indicator as there are many variables in play. Everything that I post in regards to the storm path or intensity will be a product of the Government (The National Hurricane Center for example), News Media, and my own analysis of the system. My analysis is backed by my academic and scientific background in meteorology, as well as the general feeling from my peers that I will talk to extensively about the system as I do take their analysis into consideration. So to those worried that what I may say is speculative, rest assured, I do know what I am talking about.
This is the full 5-day 06z model run:
This is an 12z early run (Forecasts from the previous run that are shifted by 6 hours with a position and intensity matching the storm's current attributes.)
Flooded local roads and MCO impacts is a certainty.
We should probably have the title of this thread updated to reflect the storm name and perhaps the month/year. Otherwise it becomes a catch-all.