Here we go again....
I think I read last night that this is the earliest in recorded history that we have had four named storms.
From the NWS:
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS. THERE ARE PLENTY OF CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND AFWA ARE 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. OBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 4.0. SO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS LOW AHEAD OF DENNIS. IN
FACT...DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD AN AREA OF 20 KT BELOW AVERAGE WIND SHEAR...AS INDICATED IN THE EXPERIMENTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION PRODUCT PROVIDED BY NOAA/CIRA. IN ADDITION...BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION. THE LATTER BRINGS DENNIS TO 121 KNOTS AND 935 MB...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL BUT CALLS FOR A MAJOR DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14
KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS. THERAFTER...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED UP TO 72 HOURS...INCREASING
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE AND ONE GROUP SHOWS A TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE OTHER AN EARLIER TURN TO THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CONSENSUS.
Save for some rain and wind, WDW will skirt this one. Some of us will not be so lucky.
I think I read last night that this is the earliest in recorded history that we have had four named storms.
From the NWS:
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS. THERE ARE PLENTY OF CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND AFWA ARE 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. OBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 4.0. SO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS LOW AHEAD OF DENNIS. IN
FACT...DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD AN AREA OF 20 KT BELOW AVERAGE WIND SHEAR...AS INDICATED IN THE EXPERIMENTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION PRODUCT PROVIDED BY NOAA/CIRA. IN ADDITION...BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION. THE LATTER BRINGS DENNIS TO 121 KNOTS AND 935 MB...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL BUT CALLS FOR A MAJOR DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14
KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS. THERAFTER...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED UP TO 72 HOURS...INCREASING
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE AND ONE GROUP SHOWS A TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE OTHER AN EARLIER TURN TO THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CONSENSUS.
Save for some rain and wind, WDW will skirt this one. Some of us will not be so lucky.
