How will Universal's Epic Universe effect Disney?

[Rich Brownn]

Just looking at Florida is closer but still a huge difference in attendance.

Looking at 2019, the last apples to apples year with no Covid, the numbers were:

MK - 21 million
AK - 13.9 million
EP - 12.4 million
HS - 11.5 million

WDW total - 57.8 million

USF - 10.9 million
IOA - 10.4 million

Uni FL total - 21.3 million

Assuming Epic adds another 10 million visits that still leaves Disney a 25 million guest lead.

The reality is none of that likely matters to either company though, both companies are worried about making a profit, not beating the guy down the street, there’s probably a little competition over bragging rights but ultimately money is all that matters. At the end of the year Uni isn’t going to care about being #2 if they add 10 million guests and another billion dollars to the bank.

So you're saying Universal rebounded back faster than Disney in 2021 (since they beat 3 of the 4 parks). And again, the average visit to Disney is 2 days so make that 10.5 million people. Universal tends to be 1 day at each park, so the difference in people isn't that much. Now as Universal expands and people stay longer, those numbers will change. Disney didn't draw 58 million people, they had 58 million admissions. Worse, those same people have a limited budget for goodies -- it doesn't matter if you count them 4 or 5 times they still aren't going to spend 4 to 5 times more just because they moved parks. Disney's biggest regret when it came to Harry Potter wasn't losing the ride options - it was the loss of the merchandise rights. HP sold so much the first year that the Dragon Alley expansion was paid off in three months just from merchandise sales alone. Not to mention all those hotels Universal is building (talking about cash cows). And they run full nearly all year.

 

[MisterPenguin]

So you're saying Universal rebounded back faster than Disney in 2021 (since they beat 3 of the 4 parks). And again, the average visit to Disney is 2 days so make that 10.5 million people. Universal tends to be 1 day at each park, so the difference in people isn't that much. Now as Universal expands and people stay longer, those numbers will change. Disney didn't draw 58 million people, they had 58 million admissions. Worse, those same people have a limited budget for goodies -- it doesn't matter if you count them 4 or 5 times they still aren't going to spend 4 to 5 times more just because they moved parks. Disney's biggest regret when it came to Harry Potter wasn't losing the ride options - it was the loss of the merchandise rights. HP sold so much the first year that the Dragon Alley expansion was paid off in three months just from merchandise sales alone. Not to mention all those hotels Universal is building (talking about cash cows). And they run full nearly all year.

Well, the same calculus has to be applied to Universal. People go there for several days. If they have the Universal 'hopper,' their one-day visit to the parks counts as two gate clicks. And with their two park entrances right next to eachother, they may get more double counts per person per day than WDW.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

So you're saying Universal rebounded back faster than Disney in 2021 (since they beat 3 of the 4 parks). And again, the average visit to Disney is 2 days so make that 10.5 million people. Universal tends to be 1 day at each park, so the difference in people isn't that much. Now as Universal expands and people stay longer, those numbers will change. Disney didn't draw 58 million people, they had 58 million admissions. Worse, those same people have a limited budget for goodies -- it doesn't matter if you count them 4 or 5 times they still aren't going to spend 4 to 5 times more just because they moved parks. Disney's biggest regret when it came to Harry Potter wasn't losing the ride options - it was the loss of the merchandise rights. HP sold so much the first year that the Dragon Alley expansion was paid off in three months just from merchandise sales alone. Not to mention all those hotels Universal is building (talking about cash cows). And they run full nearly all year.

No, I’m saying you can’t compare attendance between parks when they were open under different circumstances. Different mask rules, different admission requirements, different social distancing requirements, different attendance limits. If 2022 numbers show the same I’ll be the first to congratulate Uni, because it’ll be a real comparison.

It’s like arguing Hersheypark is gaining on Universal Hollywood because they had higher attendance in 2020… while ignoring the fact one was closed for most of the year while the other was open. Apples to Oranges.

If WDW was limiting attendance to 50% and Uni was at 100% it’s obviously going to affect the numbers.

 

[Rich Brownn]

No, I’m saying you can’t compare attendance between parks when they were open under different circumstances. Different mask rules, different admission requirements, different social distancing requirements, different attendance limits. If 2022 numbers show the same I’ll be the first to congratulate Uni, because it’ll be a real comparison.

It’s like arguing Hersheypark is gaining on Universal Hollywood because they had higher attendance in 2020… while ignoring the fact one was closed for most of the year while the other was open. Apples to Oranges.

If WDW was limiting attendance to 50% and Uni was at 100% it’s obviously going to affect the numbers.

Nice cover. But if you believe Disney was operating at only 50% I've a bridge to sell you...

 

[GoneViral]

You don't like the fact Universal is a potential threat to WDW in Florida and your combining figures worldwide to make it sound like Universal is not a threat to Disney anywhere on earth.

Well, if it's all in bold, it must be fact, not a super-weird reply!

 

[GoneViral]

I think he was talking at all parks worldwide -- which doesn't work as a comparison anyways because Disney has more parks than Universal.

Disney has the same number of parks just in the United States as Universal has in the world.

It's a debate about whether Disney views Universal as competition to the point that it'll worry about Epic Universe. It doesn't. Nobody's gonna spend $50k to eat sometimes at one restaurant at Universal Studios. Disney's literally trying to keep fewer people from visiting, as the "competition" keep building out in the hope of attracting more tourists.

There's nothing terrible about being third or fourth in an oligopoly like Universal is. The point is that when one place dominates the market share the way that Disney does, nobody else is a threat. Disney's downright arrogant about this hard truth too.

All Comcast wants from Universal theme parks right now is a profit. And they're getting that. Epic Universe should make Comcast even more.

 

[GoneViral]

They might have 100 million admissions but not 100 million people.

This is an argument of semantics. When we discuss admission park admissions, the Themed Entertainment Association counted Disney at 156 million in 2019, Merlin at 67 million, OCT Parks at 54 million, and Universal at 51 million. That's a gap of 105 million people. Disney triples Universal.

During that last year before pandemic closures, all four Disney World parks claimed more attendance than anything at Universal Orlando. The best hope Universal has is their two parks sometimes doing better than Epcot and Animal Kingdom. Magic Kingdom alone was only about 250,000 admissions below Universal's parks combined. This isn't a competition. It's whoever finishes second in a race behind Katie Ledecky.

 

[JusticeDisney]

Nice cover. But if you believe Disney was operating at only 50% I've a bridge to sell you...

And if you think that comparing WDW’s numbers to Uni’s numbers from the year 2021 is an apples to apples comparison, I will sell you that bridge right back…

 

[Jrb1979]

This is an argument of semantics. When we discuss admission park admissions, the Themed Entertainment Association counted Disney at 156 million in 2019, Merlin at 67 million, OCT Parks at 54 million, and Universal at 51 million. That's a gap of 105 million people. Disney triples Universal.

During that last year before pandemic closures, all four Disney World parks claimed more attendance than anything at Universal Orlando. The best hope Universal has is their two parks sometimes doing better than Epcot and Animal Kingdom. Magic Kingdom alone was only about 250,000 admissions below Universal's parks combined. This isn't a competition. It's whoever finishes second in a race behind Katie Ledecky.

MK is on its own as far as attendance goes and will always be number 1. A lot of that has to do with it being so good for families with littles.

Outside of that IMO that when Epic Universe opens Universal then becomes a 3-4 day visit instead of the 2-3 day visit it is now. When that happens things will change. Instead of people staying at Disney and visiting Universal for 1 or 2 days I can very see it switching to people staying at Universal and visiting Disney 1 or 2' days.

That will especially be the case of nothing new comes before Epic Universe opens.

 

[Disstevefan1]

As a guest, we can only hope Universal makes a significant dent in WDW's business. This will force WDW to react, hopefully, with more attractions, or at least, more perks for folks who stay on site.

 

[UNCgolf]

It's a debate about whether Disney views Universal as competition to the point that it'll worry about Epic Universe. It doesn't. Nobody's gonna spend $50k to eat sometimes at one restaurant at Universal Studios. Disney's literally trying to keep fewer people from visiting, as the "competition" keep building out in the hope of attracting more tourists.

There's nothing terrible about being third or fourth in an oligopoly like Universal is. The point is that when one place dominates the market share the way that Disney does, nobody else is a threat. Disney's downright arrogant about this hard truth too.

All Comcast wants from Universal theme parks right now is a profit. And they're getting that. Epic Universe should make Comcast even more.

I agree that Disney isn't concerned about Epic Universe, but if you believe Disney truly wants to lower attendance I have a bridge to sell you. They're not talking about expansions to the parks and building new DVCs because they want fewer people coming. They might (and probably do) want to spread the attendance out throughout the year even more than they already have, but they absolutely do not want lower attendance.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I agree that Disney isn't concerned about Epic Universe, but if you believe Disney truly wants to lower attendance I have a bridge to sell you. They're not talking about expansions and building new DVCs because they want fewer people coming. They might want to spread the attendance out throughout the year even more than they already have, but they absolutely do not want lower attendance.

DVC is a direct money maker. Attractions are not. Disney wants to sell DVC, they don't care if the DVC members can get in the parks or get on attractions.

I joke about it, but who would be surprised if the Poly DVC opens before the Moana walk through?

 

[jpinkc]

I agree that Disney isn't concerned about Epic Universe, but if you believe Disney truly wants to lower attendance I have a bridge to sell you. They're not talking about expansions and building new DVCs because they want fewer people coming. They might want to spread the attendance out throughout the year even more than they already have, but they absolutely do not want lower attendance.

See thats to me is part of the Disney Problem. They keep building these massive resorts and have forgotten why the Resorts are there. I believe in the Bubble, it works. But they need to be looking to ADDITIONS to the park NOT RETHEMES. As I have said before Disney could build good and great B,C,D tier people eaters if they wanted to. (I dont know if they still can) They need to! They need the capacity whether they want to admit it or not. Thats my only concern about Epic is how many good B,C,D tier people eaters will they have? I know everyone focuses on the Big Stuff Coasters etc. But if they dont have enough capacity its gonna look like when Hagrids opened. I was there when Hagrids opened it was 8 or more hours waits.

 

[jpinkc]

DVC is a direct money maker. Attractions are not. Disney wants to sell DVC, they don't care if the DVC members can get in the parks or get on attractions.

I joke about it, but who would be surprised if the Poly DVC opens before the Moana walk through?

Would not surprise me at all.

 

[Rich Brownn]

This is an argument of semantics. When we discuss admission park admissions, the Themed Entertainment Association counted Disney at 156 million in 2019, Merlin at 67 million, OCT Parks at 54 million, and Universal at 51 million. That's a gap of 105 million people. Disney triples Universal.

During that last year before pandemic closures, all four Disney World parks claimed more attendance than anything at Universal Orlando. The best hope Universal has is their two parks sometimes doing better than Epcot and Animal Kingdom. Magic Kingdom alone was only about 250,000 admissions below Universal's parks combined. This isn't a competition. It's whoever finishes second in a race behind Katie Ledecky.

Admissions is still not people, no matter how you spin it. Disney counts 1 person visiting 4 parks in 4 days as 4 admissions. But per park, the count is closer. of course, if you wanna be like Disney and pretend Epic will have no impact, be my guest. Disney is still not thrilled they missed all that HP merchandise sales. (And counting all the worldwide Disney parks to Universals 5 is just inflating numbers) I have no interest in continuing a debate with someone who gleefully fudges .

 

[Rich Brownn]

DVC is a direct money maker. Attractions are not. Disney wants to sell DVC, they don't care if the DVC members can get in the parks or get on attractions.

I joke about it, but who would be surprised if the Poly DVC opens before the Moana walk through?

Why do you think Universal keeps building all those hotels? With 3 more confirmed coming and room for at least 7 more. (Plus another park and another city walk).

 

[JusticeDisney]

Admissions is still not people, no matter how you spin it. Disney counts 1 person visiting 4 parks in 4 days as 4 admissions. But per park, the count is closer. of course, if you wanna be like Disney and pretend Epic will have no impact, be my guest. Disney is still not thrilled they missed all that HP merchandise sales. (And counting all the worldwide Disney parks to Universals 5 is just inflating numbers) I have no interest in continuing a debate with someone who gleefully fudges .

There’s an old adage which you might want to keep in mind. It has something to do with a pot and a kettle.

 

[GoneViral]

I agree that Disney isn't concerned about Epic Universe, but if you believe Disney truly wants to lower attendance I have a bridge to sell you. They're not talking about expansions to the parks and building new DVCs because they want fewer people coming. They might (and probably do) want to spread the attendance out throughout the year even more than they already have, but they absolutely do not want lower attendance.

1) People need to stop selling bridges here.
2) I absolutely believe Disney wants to maintain its current attendance levels at parks. The current model of guests paying more per visit is ideal. They're building new DVC expansions because that's found money. People pay for the parks when they're not at the parks.

 

[GoneViral]

Admissions is still not people, no matter how you spin it. Disney counts 1 person visiting 4 parks in 4 days as 4 admissions.

This isn't even Disney counting. It's the Themed Entertainment Association. You're creating straw man after straw man in an attempt to negate the simple fact that Disney's theme park attendance triples Universal's. What I said about a 100+ million attendance lead is irrefutable fact. Disney's on an entirely different plane of existence than the lesser businesses in the theme park industry.

 

[GoneViral]

MK is on its own as far as attendance goes and will always be number 1. A lot of that has to do with it being so good for families with littles.

Outside of that IMO that when Epic Universe opens Universal then becomes a 3-4 day visit instead of the 2-3 day visit it is now. When that happens things will change. Instead of people staying at Disney and visiting Universal for 1 or 2 days I can very see it switching to people staying at Universal and visiting Disney 1 or 2' days.

That will especially be the case of nothing new comes before Epic Universe opens.

Out of all the arguments I've read, this is the one that is closest to a reason why Disney would worry. At the end of the day, I suspect the percentage of people who leads with a Universal vacation and squeezes Disney in that the reverse proves to be less than 5 percent of tourists -- 1 out of 20 guests at most -- and less than 1 percent wouldn't surprise me. I see the popularity gap as that dramatic.

Universal deserves all the credit in the world for trying to get better and monetizing Halloween so well, but I believe it's a bug on Disney's windshield in the greater scheme.