Rumor Hollywood insiders say there's growing tension at Disney as CEO Bob Chapek chafes at Bob Iger's 'long goodbye'

[WondersOfLife]

Streaming services really look like they're in a race to the bottom. Netflix is spending so much on content that they're cash flow negative, yet growth has slowed significantly. What do you do? Spend even more? I don't know how the business model is sustainable. Everyone is just throwing money at this thing but there are a finite amount of monthly subscriptions people are willing to have.

There are too many streaming services now.... Netflix worked because it was the only one for so long.

Eventually, the more streaming platforms that exist, the less of a goldmine it actually is. Between Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Amazon Prime, YouTube Premium, HBO Max, Paramount+, Peacock, Showtime, Discovery+, ESPN+, Apple TV+...

And the list doesn't even stop from there..... Eventually, everyone is going to end up cancelling each other out and it won't be worth it anymore. People can't pay for soooo many options.

 

[Jrb1979]

There are too many streaming services now.... Netflix worked because it was the only one for so long.

Eventually, the more streaming platforms that exist, the less of a goldmine it actually is. Between Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Amazon Prime, YouTube Premium, HBO Max, Paramount+, Peacock, Showtime, Discovery+, ESPN+, Apple TV+...

And the list doesn't even stop from there..... Eventually, everyone is going to end up cancelling each other out and it won't be worth it anymore. People can't pay for soooo many options.

IMO Disney focusing so much on D+ is a big mistake.

 

[WondersOfLife]

IMO Disney focusing so much on D+ is a big mistake.

Of course it is. I completely agree. I think focusing so much on it at first is good, but Disney+ has settled. New releases only on Disney+ are not making nearly as big of an impact on society as their films did when they were blockbusters at the big theater.

Instead of "oh you REALLY need to go see that on the big screen! It is so good!"...

It's now "oh, that was a good movie. It just got released on Disney+. Watch it I guess." lol

 

[castlecake2.0]

IMO Disney focusing so much on D+ is a big mistake.

And I keep hearing about all this money being poured into it and doesn’t seem to be much output. Also the parks and traditional “Disney” stuff seems lacking. Why don’t they do a weekly park blog episode? This is the perfect platform to resurrect “wonderful world of Disney”; play a classic movie with intro and segment breaks giving you some behind the scenes on film production. What about a show on each of the world showcase countries and their inspirations? I’m not a huge marvel or Star Wars fan, so D+ always feels like a let down for me

 

[ImperfectPixie]

IMO Disney focusing so much on D+ is a big mistake.

The bigger mistake is trying to position themselves as a tech company, IMO. Their IT is notoriously bad and has been for years.

 

[Jrb1979]

The bigger mistake is trying to position themselves as a tech company, IMO. Their IT is notoriously bad and has been for years.

Agreed. They have become a huge dumpster fire lately with everything going on.

 

[HauntedPirate]

You know who has a sure-fire streaming winner? CNN. Without a doubt, they are the stronges... oh wait...

The honeymoon period is just about over for streaming service add-ons for "traditional" media outlets being some huge stock driver. Netflix's dip is the first domino to fall. Sub numbers are no longer going to be the barometer, and content is expensive. For a company like Disney, who has gone whole-hog into the streaming arena, it's going to be a big stock hit once they have no dividend (watch this forum for changes to that soon, I'd imagine) and the analysts poo-poo streaming sub numbers. One could say that $lappie is going to be sweating soon if things don't turn around, but how do you turn around a ship this large that's been going full-steam ahead betting on streaming and an atrocious technology platform to drive revenue even higher?

 

[Lilofan]

DIS now below $120, up only 6% over the last 5 years.

"Who turned on the seat warmer?"

And masterfully played by Bob 1.0, leaving when he did and well before the proverbial **** hit the fan.

Anyone bought at $97 in March 2020 and sold at $197 in March 2021 is a happy camper.

 

[WDWJoeG]

You know who has a sure-fire streaming winner? CNN. Without a doubt, they are the stronges... oh wait...

The honeymoon period is just about over for streaming service add-ons for "traditional" media outlets being some huge stock driver. Netflix's dip is the first domino to fall. Sub numbers are no longer going to be the barometer, and content is expensive. For a company like Disney, who has gone whole-hog into the streaming arena, it's going to be a big stock hit once they have no dividend (watch this forum for changes to that soon, I'd imagine) and the analysts poo-poo streaming sub numbers.

Yup. The issue is that there are not more eyeballs watching more content. You can't add thousands of hours of new content when the population is watching less scripted/linear media.

People can only consume so much content and younger generations spend less time on TV and more time on TikTok and You Tube than their predecessors.

The math just doesn't work and that's why you're seeing "hits" on TV with less than a million viewers and the viewership on these streaming shows is miniscule. That math doesn't work.

The flipside (and what gets all content providers excited) is the idea of having 100 million subs and then just simply pushing the "$1 price increase button" whenever needed and boom, $100M of pure profit to the bottom line instantly. Now, you have to pump $5B to get that content to get the subs, but that is very alluring to control the pricing and having a direct relationship with the consumer vs. going through a cable provider.

 

[Tha Realest]

Yup. The issue is that there are not more eyeballs watching more content. You can't add thousands of hours of new content when the population is watching less scripted/linear media.

People can only consume so much content and younger generations spend less time on TV and more time on TikTok and You Tube than their predecessors.

The math just doesn't work and that's why you're seeing "hits" on TV with less than a million viewers and the viewership on these streaming shows is miniscule. That math doesn't work.

The flipside (and what gets all content providers excited) is the idea of having 100 million subs and then just simply pushing the "$1 price increase button" whenever needed and boom, $100M of pure profit to the bottom line instantly. Now, you have to pump $5B to get that content to get the subs, but that is very alluring.

Purely anecdotal, but my children watch far more YouTube content than conventional "shows" (streaming or otherwise). They've never watched a non-live sporting event on "live" TV, and we cut cable years ago. I'd say now it's about a 15:1 or 20:1 ratio of YouTube to app streaming (principally D+, PBS Kids, Netflix).

 

[WDWJoeG]

Purely anecdotal, but my children watch far more YouTube content than conventional "shows" (streaming or otherwise). They've never watched a non-live sporting event on "live" TV, and we cut cable years ago. I'd say now it's about a 15:1 or 20:1 ratio of YouTube to app streaming (principally D+, PBS Kids, Netflix).

Yup. And wait until that generation is the one paying for those subscription services (vs being on dad's plan or sharing passwords with friends). Will they fork out the money every month? Questionable....

 

[Tha Realest]

Yup. And wait until that generation is the one paying for those subscription services (vs being on dad's plan or sharing passwords with friends). Will they fork out the money every month? Questionable....

I'm mid-40's and *I'm* not paying for those subscriptions...

 

[Indy_UK]

I’ll go against the grain and say that Disney+ needs to be the main focus for now.

It’s proving to be a success, but they need to continue their rollout and just get a good variety of content. Once they eventually Merge Hulu in Disney+ then I think people will see more value. What they have here in Europe with Star has nothing short of transformed the platform.

They need to be careful to not back away too much with the massive $$$ they still do in theatres as they were pretty much owning the box office.

Between the box office and Disney+ they should be bringing in enough then to secure them long term.

The parks do need to be treated separately and heavily invested in but what I think people forget about when they say WDW isn’t invested enough is that they just like to spread their expenditure on expansions out. DLP is probably getting the biggest investment since they first opened over 30 years ago and my lord they need it, so I’m not surprised they are not currently doubling down on WDW

 

[MisterPenguin]

That's only half true re: STARZ. Also all SVOD services aren't made equal - as you noted, Disney, Apple, and Amazon's SVOD products are all connected to larger entities that can exist and support independently. HBO and STARZ are actually more apples to apples, with both being extensions of their premium cable offering. STARZ is looking for a buyer only because Lionsgate is a trash entity. The SVOD product though is successful as it has the deepest penetration with the coveted Black audience due to their programming around Power, BMF, and P-Valley, as well as a strong presence internationally. Meanwhile, has anyone checked in on Showtime Anytime? Peacock and Paramount+ are second-tier offerings but like you said, I think they'll close or merger over time.

We also forget that reported viewership/subscriptions are independent of partner bundles. Meaning STARZ and HBO SVOD products are also offered through an upgraded Amazon Prime subscription at a discount, but subscriptions made through Prime are not reported when STARZ and HBO states subs.

Netflix is truly the odd man out as it literally has nothing else to tie itself onto.

Netflix only just recently had a bad quarter (and another to come). It can reverse. And yes, they're spending bigly on content. Which becomes theirs to own or license out or make available on PPV. Netflix lost the Universal/Illumination feed (which went to Peacock), but they're still getting Pay 1 Window on all Sony Pictures (including Animation, Colombia/Tristar). Funny enough, D+ gets Sony's Pay 2 Window (and al the Spider-Men will be reunited).

There's one company spending more than Netflix for new content: Disney (including Hulu and ESPN). And Disney's got about a dozen studios they own to pump content out.

Starz lost the Sony Pay 1 Window. And it's only feeder studio is Lionsgate/Summit.

HBO now has CNN, DC Entertainment, Warner Bros; plus all their B-tier TV channels: Discovery, Animal Planet, Science Channel, TBS, TNT, TruTV, TLC, HGTV, Food Network, Cartoon Network, Boomerang, Adult Swim, Cartoonito, and Discovery Family, Warner Bros. Animation, Cartoon Network Studios, Williams Street, Hanna-Barbera.

HBO just needs to get all that one one streamer stat, 'cause they got a huge debt load they're carrying.

Showtime belongs to the Viacom/CBS/Paramount family. It is incredible that it's still its own thing. But CBS/Viacom enjoys nothing more than shooting themselves in the foot.

BTW, there's a thread for all things streaming...

All Things Streaming (VOD, OTT)

https://variety.com/2022/tv/news/netflix-streaming-competition-hurting-growth-1235158890/

forums.wdwmagic.com

 

[zapple]

I would cancel D+ if it weren’t for The Beatles Get Back. That’s the only way you can watch it now, something strange happened with the dvd release being pulled at the last minute and there is no word on when it’s coming out. Peter Jackson is also frustrated that Disney won’t let him release a longer cut for home video.

I subscribe to so many of these service, it’s ridiculous. I’ve started rotating my subscriptions, I’ll do hulu for a few months, then netflix for a few, etc. Some I have all the time, like Prime and I have access to HBO/Sho/Starz through my fios subscriptions.

My Chase, Citi and Amex credit cards always have offers for discounts for a few months on multiple streaming services (including D+) so I take advantage of that too. But it shows how desperate they all are with all this competition. And I watch youtube more than any of them, which I also subscribe to to get rid of ads.

I don’t think Disney should have put so many eggs in this basket because this competition is not sustainable and there’s only so much Marvel and SW people want to watch.

 

[WDWJoeG]

. Peter Jackson is also frustrated that Disney won’t let him release a longer cut for home video.

Release a LONGER version? Good lord, we already saw them sitting around reading the paper and Ringo farting. Enough. Hire a good editor and get it down to the 3 hours MAX it should have been.

I love the Beatles, but on Disney's side on that one.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I don’t think Disney should have put so many eggs in this basket because this competition is not sustainable and there’s only so much Marvel and SW people want to watch.

This is where I think they're missing opportunities. There are so many different series about the company they could do that people would eat up. Parks history, attraction design, specials about OG Imagineers, the company's evolution from hand-drawn to computer illustrated animation, etc. etc.

If I were in charge, I'd ditch a bunch of the numerous different social media channels they have (the number of Twitter handles alone is ridiculous), and put those resources towards creating more company specific media for D+.

 

[zapple]

Release a LONGER version? Good lord, we already saw them sitting around reading the paper and Ringo farting. Enough. Hire a good editor and get it down to the 3 hours MAX it should have been.

I love the Beatles, but on Disney's side on that one.

I wanted more than the 10 second clips we got of most of the songs they did. I think they don’t want to pay royalties for the music because it’s a lot of covers. The album they released along with it was terrible, probably for the same reason.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I don’t think Disney should have put so many eggs in this basket because this competition is not sustainable and there’s only so much Marvel and SW people want to watch.

They've spent so many years devaluing their own back catalog that they no longer know what to do with anything that isn't those two.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Netflix only just recently had a bad quarter (and another to come). It can reverse. And yes, they're spending bigly on content. Which becomes theirs to own or license out or make available on PPV. Netflix lost the Universal/Illumination feed (which went to Peacock), but they're still getting Pay 1 Window on all Sony Pictures (including Animation, Colombia/Tristar). Funny enough, D+ gets Sony's Pay 2 Window (and al the Spider-Men will be reunited).

There's one company spending more than Netflix for new content: Disney (including Hulu and ESPN). And Disney's got about a dozen studios they own to pump content out.

Starz lost the Sony Pay 1 Window. And it's only feeder studio is Lionsgate/Summit.

HBO now has CNN, DC Entertainment, Warner Bros; plus all their B-tier TV channels: Discovery, Animal Planet, Science Channel, TBS, TNT, TruTV, TLC, HGTV, Food Network, Cartoon Network, Boomerang, Adult Swim, Cartoonito, and Discovery Family, Warner Bros. Animation, Cartoon Network Studios, Williams Street, Hanna-Barbera.

HBO just needs to get all that one one streamer stat, 'cause they got a huge debt load they're carrying.

Showtime belongs to the Viacom/CBS/Paramount family. It is incredible that it's still its own thing. But CBS/Viacom enjoys nothing more than shooting themselves in the foot.

BTW, there's a thread for all things streaming...

All Things Streaming (VOD, OTT)

https://variety.com/2022/tv/news/netflix-streaming-competition-hurting-growth-1235158890/

forums.wdwmagic.com

I can see a time in the not-too-distant future where some of these studio-run streaming services start to disappear. Disney+ is probably safe because they have so much content that people want to watch. HBOmax will survive because it's essentially just HBO with some additional content and replaced an already-existing service. Peacock could last or it could go away, but I'd bet on it lasting. Paramount+? I'm surprised it's still around. Does Fox have a service? If so, the fact that need to ask means it's not likely to last. I'm not sure if Apple+ survives unless it's out of sheer stubbornness. Outside of Ted Lasso there really isn't much there that generates a buzz. And Discovery+ never should have been created in the first place.