What bubble? People suddenly running back to cable? People suddenly eschewing their 70" TVs and only wanting their entertainment to be in theaters?
The future is streaming.
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- Thread starter Creathir
- Start date
The future is streaming.
Tha Realest
Well-Known Member
The fact that each and every studio has, or is attempting, to launch its own streaming service. That some have already face-planted. That even the biggest of them all - Netflix - is showing signs of slowing down. Some will survive. Many will not. Look no farther than ATT - it invested, by some accounts, $100M, only to shutter in less than a month.
Oh, I thought you were saying D+ is on a bubble.
D+, Netflix will survive.
Apple+ and Amazon Prime, too, but only because their companies can support them with deficit spending for years.
HBO is my next horse to survive, but only if they can get their act together to put the content from all its studios in one place. Much sooner than later, they have a huge debt load.
Peacock and Paramount+ will limp along with CBS and NBC propping them up until they're too much of a drain. Then its merger time.
Starz is dead man walking and looking for a buyer.
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
That's pretty much how I see things playing out, too.
Companies that can crank out content and support the service through other business branches will keep them going, for sure.
As for Peacock, Paramount, and the other little guys, I really think they'd be better off licensing their media to the big players.
You don't happen to know who owns Tubi, do you?
ETA: Never mind...FOX seems to have purchased them in 2020.
Tha Realest
Well-Known Member
No, didn't mean to suggest that. But with Netflix's downturn, other streaming-centric stocks dropped too. I agree with your assessment who will survive. Apple, Netflix, Prime, D+ have too large a base and too much institutional support to lose long term.
HBO is maddening, considering its head start and the great additions. But it feels like a Frankenstein monster, and is all over the place content wise.
I like to think I am on top of these things but confuse Paramount and Peacock all the time.
jmp85
Well-Known Member
They're still running deeply cash flow negative. They'd be taking out more debt to pay any type of dividend at this point.
Tha Realest
Well-Known Member
I meant this market is getting oversaturated, not necessarily D+. D+ has overperformed greatly. But I could see them getting dragged down if overall subscriber numbers (within the industry) start to slow, or some of those streamers (Peacock, Paramount, etc.) just flatline and give up/sell off.
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
Peacock is still free for Comcast customers.
Sorcerer Mickey
Well-Known Member
Streaming won't end but the fantasy bubble of never-ending subscriber growth will burst. Centering your entire company around a business model that is not sustainable on its own is not smart. Netflix's quarterly earnings report was the beginning of the bloodbath.
GimpYancIent
Well-Known Member
Worried about you investments?
Not invested in Disney.
jmp85
Well-Known Member
Streaming services really look like they're in a race to the bottom. Netflix is spending so much on content that they're cash flow negative, yet growth has slowed significantly. What do you do? Spend even more? I don't know how the business model is sustainable. Everyone is just throwing money at this thing but there are a finite amount of monthly subscriptions people are willing to have.
Nubs70
Well-Known Member
Netflix needs to remove some of the crap that is in the available content. Outside of original content, does Netflix pay movie providers a flat fee or a per view fee?
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
I disagree...their wide variety is part of the draw for us.
denyuntilcaught
Well-Known Member
That's only half true re: STARZ. Also all SVOD services aren't made equal - as you noted, Disney, Apple, and Amazon's SVOD products are all connected to larger entities that can exist and support independently. HBO and STARZ are actually more apples to apples, with both being extensions of their premium cable offering. STARZ is looking for a buyer only because Lionsgate is a trash entity. The SVOD product though is successful as it has the deepest penetration with the coveted Black audience due to their programming around Power, BMF, and P-Valley, as well as a strong presence internationally. Meanwhile, has anyone checked in on Showtime Anytime? Peacock and Paramount+ are second-tier offerings but like you said, I think they'll close or merger over time.
We also forget that reported viewership/subscriptions are independent of partner bundles. Meaning STARZ and HBO SVOD products are also offered through an upgraded Amazon Prime subscription at a discount, but subscriptions made through Prime are not reported when STARZ and HBO states subs.
Netflix is truly the odd man out as it literally has nothing else to tie itself onto.
denyuntilcaught
Well-Known Member
Flat and typically part of a package i.e. "borrowing" 25 titles in bulk from, say, what was once MGM.
Nubs70
Well-Known Member
Even the plethora of Tamil and Hindi dramas?
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
Yes. Just because I'm not interested in something doesn't mean others should lose access, too.
Though I will admit that I wish there were more and better means of filtering what shows up on your home page.
Nubs70
Well-Known Member
Thanks for the reply.
I think it would serve Netflix well to negotiate into a pay per view model. PPV would stabilize the profit margin rather than Flat Fee that only has spectacular margin if its a breakout hit. I watch a crap ton of Netflix and have honestly run out of interesting things to watch. I am now exoring Turkish dramas. To pay flat fee, in the US, for Turkish dramas would be nuts