Rumor Higher Speed Rail from MCO to Disney World

[lazyboy97o]

Yeah, if you read more carefully, this ensures that Virgin would NOT do that. The OLD HSR proposal DID have a stop at the convention center/I Drive, which Disney very vocally hated, and as much as publicly stated they would replace DME with HSR ONLY IF the train was routed along 417 and not I-4, and when the I-4 route was chosen with the OCCC stop, Disney became very anti-train again. That was approximately 10 years ago.

What I am saying is that Virgin has no incentive to have a local transit system with completely different needs sitting in the middle of its route.

 

[homerdance]

The route planned is the “417” route with the only confirmed stop is the existing SunRail stop. The likely cost per passenger will likely be under $20. Which is cheaper than anything you can currently purchase including Uber.

 

[briangaw]

What I am saying is that Virgin has no incentive to have a local transit system with completely different needs sitting in the middle of its route.

While I think you are right operationally, I think that Virgin Trains USA needs and will need ridership and cash coming in. A good contract with Disney or even more guaranteed ridership is a decent incentive. Actually, they have been super surprised with the tourist numbers on their existing segment already. They have been a way way higher percentage of ridership than predicted.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Another pedestrian was just killed by a brightline in Pompano.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Another pedestrian was just killed by a brightline in Pompano.

On average, a pedestrian is killed by a car about every three days in South Florida.

 

[mm121]

Another pedestrian was just killed by a brightline in Pompano.

These incidents barely even register on the South Florida local news anymore.
When it first opened there would always be news alerts on my news apps notifying right away.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

On average, a pedestrian is killed by a car about every three days in South Florida.

Super relevant and fascinating.

 

[DisneyCane]

On average, a pedestrian is killed by a car about every three days in South Florida.

There are only a few hundred thousand times the number of cars driving around south Florida every day than Brightline trains and a few hundred times the road miles as railroad miles. If there weren't a lot more pedestrians killed by cars then Brightline would have an astronomical pedestrian kill rate in comparison.

I still think that pedestrians hit by trains (or cars hit by trains for that matter) falls under the "you can't fix stupid" category.

 

[homerdance]

If only there was a way to avoid those crazy out of control trains. They should confine them to tracks or something

 

[MinnieM123]

Another pedestrian was just killed by a brightline in Pompano.

I'm not from Florida, so not familiar with the train situation down there, other than what I've read in this thread.

Just wondering if those newer trains might run "quieter" for example. Perhaps the pedestrian (if not looking carefully) might not have heard it approaching. I take trains daily up here in the Northeast, and sometimes if an (express route) train speeds through a local station (where it doesn't stop), you actually may not hear it until it whisks by you.

Obviously, no one should be on the tracks at any time, but it was just a thought I had about the most recent incident down there. Sad news about the pedestrian down in Pompano.

 

[toolsnspools]

Problem is, you're conjuring rates and times for a train system that doesn't exist. The Brightline already runs in Florida between Miami, Ft. Lauderdale and West Palm Beach. Right now, a train from Miami to Ft. Lauderdale takes 30 minutes and costs $22 for a low end ticket and $35 for a select ticket. They have a good on-time rating.

And even when invited, nobody has created a competing chart that significantly reduces time or saves money. For $22 a person, I could hire a private Cadillac to pick up, and drop off my family of 5 door to door in about 30 minutes. At $35, we could hire a limo.

 

[toolsnspools]

All reports are that Brightline / Virgin Trains is still bleeding money, and their solvency will only last another year or so. When a company backs off an IPO, it's almost always because the market will not sustain their asking price.

Don't get me wrong, I like the idea of HSR. If there's a place that it will work, this has to be high on the list. The problem is, when it comes to the economics of HSR, it rarely works in America.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

All reports are that Brightline / Virgin Trains is still bleeding money, and their solvency will only last another year or so. When a company backs off an IPO, it's almost always because the market will not sustain their asking price.

Don't get me wrong, I like the idea of HSR. If there's a place that it will work, this has to be high on the list. The problem is, when it comes to the economics of HSR, it rarely works in America.

The problem is that it could work, but these self contained projects like Brightline don’t work. You need a national network of HSR and this country doesn’t have the vision to support that like they did with the interstate highways.

Transportation systems are not a to b solution and the more connections and destinations it has, the more useful it is.

 

[lazyboy97o]

All reports are that Brightline / Virgin Trains is still bleeding money, and their solvency will only last another year or so. When a company backs off an IPO, it's almost always because the market will not sustain their asking price.

Don't get me wrong, I like the idea of HSR. If there's a place that it will work, this has to be high on the list. The problem is, when it comes to the economics of HSR, it rarely works in America.

Brightline isn’t high speed rail...

 

[DisneyCane]

All reports are that Brightline / Virgin Trains is still bleeding money, and their solvency will only last another year or so. When a company backs off an IPO, it's almost always because the market will not sustain their asking price.

Don't get me wrong, I like the idea of HSR. If there's a place that it will work, this has to be high on the list. The problem is, when it comes to the economics of HSR, it rarely works in America.

Isn't a lot of their business model based on making money at the stations vs. the fares? HSR can only work in the USA on high traffic routes within 500 miles maximum of each other. The traffic must be origin and destination traffic.

High speed trains aren't high speed enough to compete with planes on things like NY to Florida. Even including getting to the airport early and the travel time from home, you can get from South Florida to New York City by air in less than 4.5 hours total travel time. With an express HSR train, if the tracks are all brand new high speed capable, you are looking at minimum 7.5 hours just on the train plus you still have to get from home to the station and be there at least a little early.

To be capable of that speed the track would cost tens of billions of dollars (more likely over $100 billion). As each generation of aircraft keeps getting 12%-20% more efficient or more, by the time you build out the HSR, a new plane won't be all that much less energy efficient but will still be significantly faster.

 

[mm121]

Brightline isn’t high speed rail...

ABSOLUTELY TRUE!!

I hate when people call it that.

While its slightly faster than the Amtrak from Miami to Orlano that's mainly due to less stops and route.

It's Higher speed but not HIGH speed.
It's NOTHING compared to true HSR of Europe and Japan and elsewhere.

 

[mm121]

Isn't a lot of their business model based on making money at the stations vs. the fares? HSR can only work in the USA on high traffic routes within 500 miles maximum of each other. The traffic must be origin and destination traffic.

High speed trains aren't high speed enough to compete with planes on things like NY to Florida. Even including getting to the airport early and the travel time from home, you can get from South Florida to New York City by air in less than 4.5 hours total travel time. With an express HSR train, if the tracks are all brand new high speed capable, you are looking at minimum 7.5 hours just on the train plus you still have to get from home to the station and be there at least a little early.

To be capable of that speed the track would cost tens of billions of dollars (more likely over $100 billion). As each generation of aircraft keeps getting 12%-20% more efficient or more, by the time you build out the HSR, a new plane won't be all that much less energy efficient but will still be significantly faster.

Trains will always be more efficient than planes as they can be powered by electricity, but I also agree that such a network would cost a fortune and requires a national vision.

California can't even build one HSR within their own state so there's no way all the states from Miami to New York would be able to work together.

Planes also provide more flexibly.

Trains are best suited to routes in the 200 to 300 mile range.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

Trains are best suited to routes in the 200 to 300 mile range.

They'd have to have a whole bunch of hubs to make it work - but people want direct. Not transferring 5 times to get from Miami to Chicago.

 

[Lensman]

They'd have to have a whole bunch of hubs to make it work - but people want direct. Not transferring 5 times to get from Miami to Chicago.

I'm not sure what you're proposing. Under what @mm121 suggests, no one wants to travel from Miami to Chicago by train because it's further than 300 miles.

@mm121 is saying that viable O&D trips for train travel are between 200 and 300 miles. So New York to Washington D.C. or New York to Boston, Miami to Orlando, etc. The real problem is that outside of the Northeast Corridor, there aren't that many places in the U.S. with the inter-urban density to support commercial passenger train service.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

I'm not sure what you're proposing. Under what @mm121 suggests, no one wants to travel from Miami to Chicago by train because it's further than 300 miles.

@mm121 is saying that viable O&D trips for train travel are between 200 and 300 miles. So New York to Washington D.C. or New York to Boston, Miami to Orlando, etc. The real problem is that outside of the Northeast Corridor, there aren't that many places in the U.S. with the inter-urban density to support commercial passenger train service.

I agree with his post. I was more so commenting on a national HSR system and why there would be challenges. Even one as seemingly simple as NY to MIA.