Rumor Higher Speed Rail from MCO to Disney World

[toolsnspools]

The real story is:

The prospectus indicates Brightline has lost $87 million this year, the third straight year of operating losses:

• 2016: $25 million in operating losses
• 2017: $44.7 million in operating losses
• 2018 (through Sept. 30): $87 million in operating losses

 

[jt04]

The real story is:

The prospectus indicates Brightline has lost $87 million this year, the third straight year of operating losses:

• 2016: $25 million in operating losses
• 2017: $44.7 million in operating losses
• 2018 (through Sept. 30): $87 million in operating losses

It is not uncommon for businesses to take losses in the first five years.

From my understanding investors are happy and they are exceeding initial projections for sales.

 

[seascape]

It is not uncommon for businesses to take losses in the first five years.

From my understanding investors are happy and they are exceeding initial projections for sales.

Mass transit always operates at a loss. When I was in college back in the late 70s there was only one profitable line, the Philadelphia Libdenwold high speed line and that was because it is a small system. Unfortunately it is no longer profitable.

 

[JoeCamel]

Mass transit always operates at a loss. When I was in college back in the late 70s there was only one profitable line, the Philadelphia Libdenwold high speed line and that was because it is a small system. Unfortunately it is no longer profitable.

I think this line might be different. They are often sold out and have exceeded expectations. Orlando should help even more.

Think you missed that part. Unless it is subsidized it won't support itself.

 

[briangaw]

Think you missed that part. Unless it is subsidized it won't support itself.

That is not always true. See airlines. But even saying that is the case. Thank goodness that Brightline understands that and has a very interesting business model that is developing real estate at the stations and in a big way. Also of note a great deal of that is still under construction and isn't making revenues. Any development company will see initial losses as well as transit companies. With the real estate and station tie in you get synergies as well as if the transit side of the business has minor losses you have the real estate profits that can more then cover and eventually as you grow, both will be profitable. Of course they are not out of the woods yet, but they seem to have the model that is most likely to succeed currently.

 

[toolsnspools]

Viable businesses see the losses decreasing, not increasing. Request for bailout in 3...2...

It is not uncommon for businesses to take losses in the first five years.

From my understanding investors are happy and they are exceeding initial projections for sales.

 

[JEANYLASER]

I hope high speed from MCO to Disney would be nice!

 

[NormC]

I hope high speed from MCO to Disney would be nice!

It would be nice but I do not see it happening.

 

[Jonathan Wang]

Here are the details surrounding the entire South Terminal project master plan:
https://orlandoairports.net/site/uploads/Community_Outreach_Presentation_201607.pdf

(At least from July 2016, not sure if things have changed since, but slides 13 - 16 talk about the Intermodal stuff)

i'm looking at that pdf, and im pretty sure the timeline is pretty off now. compared to what ive seen over here. lets just be clear here... the original buildout was suppose to start in 2000-01 right before 9/11, project was put on hold b/c of the drop in travel. OIA is just running over max capacity year after year, they had to build out.

i would also like to point out a design flaw i see in one of the concepts where it shows the final buildout of terminal c/d/south terminal. if you look at the top left you see a apm connecting the two terminals by going around. seems super ineffcient since its only that side and not utilizing a full circle allowing for more APMS to run through.

 

[gustaftp]

Maybe if we stopped subsidized roads and highways and sprawly development to such an extent, mass transit could actually have a fighting chance.

Why there is such a double-standard for motor vehicles as opposed to mass transit boggles me.

 

[Robbiem]

If Walt Disney World gets a train station that's also connected to the other cities in Florida, won't they be "Loosing?"

They want guests essentially trapped on WDW property like an island, giving guests quick, cheap, and easy access to other tourism hot spots in florida (Tampa, Mami Ect) will enable guests to stay shorter stays at WDW and spend more time elsewhere in Florida.

I guess the reverse could also be true in that it makes it easier for tourists in Tampa, Miami etc to take a trip to WDW. It would be interesting to see how much the projected flows each way are and how this equates to extra visitors

 

[Unplugged]

It would be nice but I do not see it happening.

Exactly. Perhaps a slow gondola ride? At a wee bit over 20 miles, that would be $60m to $240m according to average stats.

 

[jaxonp]

Build a maglev train from MCO to the TTC. The one in Shanghai is awesome. I’m sure the Chinese would make a deal.

 

[jt04]

Build a maglev train from MCO to the TTC. The one in Shanghai is awesome. I’m sure the Chinese would make a deal.

There is a plan for maglev from MCO to the OCCC and International Drive.

My hunch is you get both projects (Disney HSR stop and Uni maglev) or neither.

 

[UCF]

i'm looking at that pdf, and im pretty sure the timeline is pretty off now. compared to what ive seen over here. lets just be clear here... the original buildout was suppose to start in 2000-01 right before 9/11, project was put on hold b/c of the drop in travel. OIA is just running over max capacity year after year, they had to build out.

i would also like to point out a design flaw i see in one of the concepts where it shows the final buildout of terminal c/d/south terminal. if you look at the top left you see a apm connecting the two terminals by going around. seems super ineffcient since its only that side and not utilizing a full circle allowing for more APMS to run through.

Brightline's proposal was publicly released and was accepted by FDOT for negotiations with no other competitors.

The timeline has the launch being very end of 2021 for the Orlando stations, and the proposed Disney station (with a statement saying in early negotiations with land owner) being near Wide World of Sports and the Fourth Laundry Operations building.

http://fdot.gov/procurement/pdf/Brightline Trains FDOT Proposal Tampa to Orlando FINAL 11-5-18.pdf

There is a plan for maglev from MCO to the OCCC and International Drive.

That plan has been put on an indefinite hold as the airport was insistant the maglev pay for all lost rental car revenue and they said that made it not feasible. Brightline is beyond that point.

Infact, part of Brightline's operational costs is rent for the Orlando station that they are not able to use as of yet as they had lawsuits slowing them down building the Orlando-West Palm segment. Operational profitability was never expected without the Orlando extension being operational.

 

[trainplane3]

Brightline's proposal was publicly released and was accepted by FDOT for negotiations with no other competitors.

The timeline has the launch being very end of 2021 for the Orlando stations, and the proposed Disney station (with a statement saying in early negotiations with land owner) being near Wide World of Sports and the Fourth Laundry Operations building.

http://fdot.gov/procurement/pdf/Brightline Trains FDOT Proposal Tampa to Orlando FINAL 11-5-18.pdf


That plan has been put on an indefinite hold as the airport was insistant the maglev pay for all lost rental car revenue and they said that made it not feasible. Brightline is beyond that point.

Infact, part of Brightline's operational costs is rent for the Orlando station that they are not able to use as of yet as they had lawsuits slowing them down building the Orlando-West Palm segment. Operational profitability was never expected without the Orlando extension being operational.

Just sharing the screenshot of the potential station location in case people don't want to/can't view the PDF:

 

[Jonathan Wang]

Brightline's proposal was publicly released and was accepted by FDOT for negotiations with no other competitors.

The timeline has the launch being very end of 2021 for the Orlando stations, and the proposed Disney station (with a statement saying in early negotiations with land owner) being near Wide World of Sports and the Fourth Laundry Operations building.

http://fdot.gov/procurement/pdf/Brightline Trains FDOT Proposal Tampa to Orlando FINAL 11-5-18.pdf


That plan has been put on an indefinite hold as the airport was insistant the maglev pay for all lost rental car revenue and they said that made it not feasible. Brightline is beyond that point.

Infact, part of Brightline's operational costs is rent for the Orlando station that they are not able to use as of yet as they had lawsuits slowing them down building the Orlando-West Palm segment. Operational profitability was never expected without the Orlando extension being operational.

when we toured the finished station facility it was told at that time the train wouldnt arrive for at least another 3 years, that being said that was a year ago so at least 2 more 100%. Remember Disney has a HUGE record of pulling out of major projects, anyone remember the rest stop station they had planned? even though these are "accepted" they can turn around and say they dont want it on their land. But we can still see a station closer to disney.

Projects always run late though, i never believe in proposed or given timelines. until they are at least 50% complete

Edit: looking at proposed station location that's still some range from disney property. thats why i was saying a "disney" station wasnt likely like direct on property.

 

[Hitmanatee]

I suspect this has likely been posted before, but also know that the right of way they're proposing to use, specific to Disney, is the median of I-4, due west of downtown Celebration. The station would be where the median becomes extra wide, just east of the World Dr. interchange.

That said, they're largely proposing to pick up where the old high-speed rail initiative left off when it was killed by Governor Scott in 2011. So it's quite possible that things have changed, especially in Disney's view of the project, but also Brightline's approach and the state's.

For ex., coming from Tampa to Orlando, the right-of-way from the high-speed rail initiative carries the line up to the Beachline interchange, then follows the Beachline most of the way to the airport. Brightline, on the other hand, is proposing to veer from I-4 at the 417 interchange—just north of the Disney station—and follow the 417 to the airport.

 

[Jonathan Wang]

I suspect this has likely been posted before, but also know that the right of way they're proposing to use, specific to Disney, is the median of I-4, due west of downtown Celebration. The station would be where the median becomes extra wide, just east of the World Dr. interchange.

That said, they're largely proposing to pick up where the old high-speed rail initiative left off when it was killed by Governor Scott in 2011. So it's quite possible that things have changed, especially in Disney's view of the project, but also Brightline's approach and the state's.

For ex., coming from Tampa to Orlando, the right-of-way from the high-speed rail initiative carries the line up to the Beachline interchange, then follows the Beachline most of the way to the airport. Brightline, on the other hand, is proposing to veer from I-4 at the 417 interchange—just north of the Disney station—and follow the 417 to the airport.

This station design is VERY similar to how they have finished the station at the OIA currently. But i feel like if disney wanted trains coming on property they better be disney themed.

 

[Ripken10]

I think I am not following this thread really well and maybe someone can recap in easy terms to understand (think "idiots guide to Florida's High speed real - what we know and what we don't know for sure"). Pretty pictures is a plus and will give you bonus points!