^This. In order for mass transit to work efficiently, you need to have high population density AND high density of destinations. I don't really understand the obsession with trying to shoehorn rail service where it makes no sense. To see how mass transit doesn't work when combined with suburban sprawl, look no further than South Florida.
Orlando has 60+ million visitors a year, and many millions of those are going from the airport to Disney or I-Drive/Universal, so it sounds like its meeting your definition.
You have Tri-Rail and Metro-Rail. If you live in Broward or Palm Beach County and work in Miami-Dade and want to take a train, you still have to drive to the Tri-Rail station. Unless you work in Downtown Miami or at very specific places with a Metro-Rail station then you have to take busses on the destination end. Even if you work in Downtown Miami and can take Metro-Rail/Metro-Mover, in most cases (when accounting for driving to the station and having to be there early so you don't miss the train) it will take longer to commute with Mass transit than just sitting in the horrendous traffic and driving the whole way.
I had a friend that lived in Boca Raton and worked in Doral. Back when gas prices got crazy he tried to use mass transit to save on gas. He had to drive to the Tri-Rail station then take Metro-Rail to a bus and a bus to work. It took him at least 20 minutes longer than driving door to door, even in rush hour.
And there's the convenience factor of being able to sit playing on your phone/laptop instead of dealing with South Florida traffic. And for most, it has nothing to do with money... thats why Boca, among the richest of the suburbs, has the busiest Tri-Rail station. And thats with stations that were not placed well in urban areas as Tri-Rail was created as a temporary alternate route to 95 during construction limiting capacity. And if you're not going to work with reserved parking, dealing with and paying for parking adds to the benefits of the system. Thats why Tri-Rail's trains are often full, even with the failure of the government to add more trains when they do fill up.
There simply isn't enough traffic between MCO and WDW to be able to have a profitable rail line. The whole South Florida to Orlando Train makes no sense to me unless it was an Auto Train and could do the trip in under 2 hours. A "long distance local" like me doesn't go to WDW to be locked on WDW property. I need a car in the Orlando area so a train would only make sense if the ticket included a rental car and ended up cheaper than the gas to make the drive.
Its not going to be cheaper, but it will remove the need to deal with all the headaches, like focusing on roads for 3+ hours, dealing with parking, and possibly dealing with an extra oil change, tire rotation, or mechanics visit. And we're living in a generation where the young people cannot put there phone down or 5 minutes while driving. If you're going to Disney or a place on the Sunrail connections, the train makes things easier, even if it doesn't save time (and for many, it will save time, but its not the main benefit)
The drive takes 3 1/2 hours including a stop for gas/bathroom if needed. Even if I didn't need a car at the destination, what would be the point of dealing with the inconvenience of a train schedule to save an hour and a maybe a few dollars. Even with my very inefficient truck, it only costs $40 or so in gas each way plus whatever the turnpike toll is up to. Even if tolls were $20 and I have 1 passenger with me, it's $30 a person each way. Is Brightline going to charge significantly less than that?
Because you're totally underestimating the cost of driving. There's wear and tear, maintenance (tire rotations, replacements, oil, brakes, etc), depreciation, risk/insurance, parking costs, etc.
Plus people get tired from driving. If I want a one night/2 day trip to Disney from Miami, people will typically be worn out when they arrive from the drive, and then want to leave early to avoid driving tired for that second day. With the train, you can hop on in the morning, bring your breakfast or eat with the food service on the train, take a nap, relax, and arrive refreshed, and stay later into the night knowing your drive home from the train station won't be worse then a drive home from the theater. Infact, that makes a day trip possible from South Florida, its usually too daunting for most to have a vacation driving for 6 or 7 hours in a day.
Its not for everybody, there is no doubt penny pinchers likely won't be interested in the train service, in South Florida Tri-Rail/Metrorail service the same areas as Brightline at a much cheaper cost, but Brightline saves people time and is more comfortable. This isn't the suburban bus system designed to give poor people a way to get around with the name "mass transit" even though its far from that.
