Rumor Higher Speed Rail from MCO to Disney World

[Twirlnhurl]

Trains are an interesting curiosity and they have a fan base. However they are really not needed in the USA. Long trips are better served by aircraft while buses work better for short trips. Trains are anachronistic blivits in the world of transportation.

There are currently 11 daily flights from Orlando to Miami, 6 daily flights from Orlando to Fort Lauderdale, and zero flights from Orlando to West Palm Beach. Assuming those flights have 200 passengers each (a generous assumption), that is 3,400 one way passengers from Orlando to South Florida per day.

In October 2023, the Brightline train served 79,686 passengers between Orlando and South Florida (source), an average of 2,571 passengers a day.

Note that the reported Brightline trips may be in both directions, the article makes it sound like it is one way, but I think that may be wrong. If that is the case, the correct one way daily ridership may be 1,285.

Regardless, the share of train passengers is either 43% or 27% of the total non-road trips between Orlando and South Florida.

That is a significant share of trips!

If there can only be one mode of travel between the two, train probably wouldn't be the best choice for the most people. But, there can be more than one mode, and what is best for one person isn't necessarily the best for someone else.

If you were to take an average square mile of the United States, it is unlikely that rail is the best mode of transportation for that square mile. But there are many, many square miles in this country where rail has significant advantages over other modes. Just ask anyone trying to drive to Orlando from Miami on a Friday at 5:00 pm. The last time I did it, it took 75 minutes to go from the Miami airport to the turnpike (14 miles). Does a train really have no advantage over a car or bus when the highways are that congested?

Trains don't need to be the best mode for all users to be useful to use users. And there are some users for some trips where train is objectively better than all alternatives.

 

[DisneyCane]

There are currently 11 daily flights from Orlando to Miami, 6 daily flights from Orlando to Fort Lauderdale, and zero flights from Orlando to West Palm Beach. Assuming those flights have 200 passengers each (a generous assumption), that is 3,400 one way passengers from Orlando to South Florida per day.

In October 2023, the Brightline train served 79,686 passengers between Orlando and South Florida (source), an average of 2,571 passengers a day.

Note that the reported Brightline trips may be in both directions, the article makes it sound like it is one way, but I think that may be wrong. If that is the case, the correct one way daily ridership may be 1,285.

Regardless, the share of train passengers is either 43% or 27% of the total non-road trips between Orlando and South Florida.

That is a significant share of trips!

If there can only be one mode of travel between the two, train probably wouldn't be the best choice for the most people. But, there can be more than one mode, and what is best for one person isn't necessarily the best for someone else.

If you were to take an average square mile of the United States, it is unlikely that rail is the best mode of transportation for that square mile. But there are many, many square miles in this country where rail has significant advantages over other modes. Just ask anyone trying to drive to Orlando from Miami on a Friday at 5:00 pm. The last time I did it, it took 75 minutes to go from the Miami airport to the turnpike (14 miles). Does a train really have no advantage over a car or bus when the highways are that congested?

Trains don't need to be the best mode for all users to be useful to use users. And there are some users for some trips where train is objectively better than all alternatives.

I'd imagine that most of the Brightline passengers are taking the train instead of driving. Flying South Florida to/from Orlando doesn't make much sense from a time standpoint. The time spent having to get to the airport early, go through the TSA fun and then get out of the airport on the other end (especially with checked luggage) makes the door to door time as long, if not longer than driving.

I'd think a decent percentage of the air passengers are either connecting or on pass through flights and aren't traveling between MCO and FLL/MIA.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I’ll believe a useful rail system in the US the minute i see one built

Trax in Salt Lake City is probably the best I’ve experienced, I’ve used it dozens of times when visiting SLC. Connects the airport, the university, downtown, and the suburbs with just a couple lines.

It’s nowhere near as comprehensive as European systems but it will quickly get you close and then a short Uber ride is all you need to complete the trip.

Brightline just finalized funding for the Vegas to Rancho Cucamonga Line, which will be starting construction this year, and I think that will be similarly successful, it will quickly get you close enough to your destination you can jump on a commuter rail and Uber the last leg.

I don’t think (most of) the US is densely populated enough for European style systems (with dozens of lines) but in a lot of places trains make a lot of sense, we just have to combine them with Uber instead of a subway system to get to the final destination.

Disney will be interesting because it’s so close to MCO transferring from a train to an Uber probably doesn’t make sense. We’ll probably just get an Uber direct from MCO.

 

[Nunu]

I'd imagine that most of the Brightline passengers are taking the train instead of driving. Flying South Florida to/from Orlando doesn't make much sense from a time standpoint. The time spent having to get to the airport early, go through the TSA fun and then get out of the airport on the other end (especially with checked luggage) makes the door to door time as long, if not longer than driving.

I'd think a decent percentage of the air passengers are either connecting or on pass through flights and aren't traveling between MCO and FLL/MIA.

Took the MIA-MCO Brightline a week ago. It was a good (and convenient) experience to just relax on the train instead of driving. Will use it again MCO-MIA in a a little over a week.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Like it or not, rail is gaining.... steam(get it...did ya?? ) Ohio has plans in place to add two more Amtrak higher speed rail lines between Cleveland and Cincinnati and across east to west as well. Trying to remove more traffic from airports.

There is a line now from Cincinnati to Chicago which I like to take from time to time to avoid airports

…we’re only 75 years behind

MERICA!

 

[lazyboy97o]

I'd imagine that most of the Brightline passengers are taking the train instead of driving. Flying South Florida to/from Orlando doesn't make much sense from a time standpoint. The time spent having to get to the airport early, go through the TSA fun and then get out of the airport on the other end (especially with checked luggage) makes the door to door time as long, if not longer than driving.

I'd think a decent percentage of the air passengers are either connecting or on pass through flights and aren't traveling between MCO and FLL/MIA.

The frequency of service is for people flying between the two cities. That’s exactly why Brightline built the route

 

[WoundedDreamer]

A lot of objections to trains in the United States can be chalked up to the poor management and infrastructure of the existing rail services. As someone who has travelled pretty-extensively on the Northeast Regional Train Service, the best American rail is not remotely comparable to Europe or Asia. That is one of the reasons I'm excited about Brightline. While some of the rolling stock is actually the same as what is used on Amtrak, Brightline seems like they've addressed some of the major failings of our national rail service. Amtrak is abysmal in customer service, digital technology, station facilities, and reliability. Brightline also has a trendy brand image which is not a trivial thing. If Brightline can continue to nail the details, I'm actually optimistic about other firms joining in.

I'm also intrigued about the California project. While massively behind schedule and over budget, once completed it should be the best rail service in the United States.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

A lot of objections to trains in the United States can be chalked up to the poor management and infrastructure of the existing rail services. As someone who has travelled pretty-extensively on the Northeast Regional Train Service, the best American rail is not remotely comparable to Europe or Asia. That is one of the reasons I'm excited about Brightline. While some of the rolling stock is actually the same as what is used on Amtrak, Brightline seems like they've addressed some of the major failings of our national rail service. Amtrak is abysmal in customer service, digital technology, station facilities, and reliability. Brightline also has a trendy brand image which is not a trivial thing. If Brightline can continue to nail the details, I'm actually optimistic about other firms joining in.

I'm also intrigued about the California project. While massively behind schedule and over budget, once completed it should be the best rail service in the United States.

I think Brightline vs CHSR will be taught in schools as a contrast of how to do major projects.

Brightline is building a basic higher speed rail (as they can afford it) and then will upgrade in the future if necessary, CHSR is attempting to build the latest and greatest HSR in hopes they will somehow find the $75 billion more they still need to complete it.

IF CHSR is ever finished it’ll be state of the art, but I’ll be shocked if it’s finished in my lifetime, whereas Brightline is already serving passengers and I’ll be shocked if I’m not riding it to DL in a few short years.

I think CHSR should have connected San Diego and LA first, proving to voters HSR could work, my guess is very few people will ever experience it where it’s being built, Brightline will likely introduce more people to HSR than CHSR (and ironically may provide the exposure needed to get approval for more CSHR funds).

 

[lazyboy97o]

Brightline is building a basic higher speed rail (as they can afford it) and then will upgrade in the future if necessary, CHSR is attempting to build the latest and greatest HSR in hopes they will somehow find the $75 billion more they still need to complete it.

IF CHSR is ever finished it’ll be state of the art, but I’ll be shocked if it’s finished in my lifetime, whereas Brightline is already serving passengers and I’ll be shocked if I’m not riding it to DL in a few short years.

Brightline West is planned to be a true high speed line, not a higher speed line like in Florida. Brightline and the California High-Speed Rail Authority are even coordinating which train sets they are going to purchase to ensure future interoperability.

 

[Disone]

Brightline West is planned to be a true high speed line, not a higher speed line like in Florida. Brightline and the California High-Speed Rail Authority are even coordinating which train sets they are going to purchase to ensure future interoperability.

100% but also does not nagate any of @Vegas Disney Fan points.

 

[WoundedDreamer]

Brightline West is planned to be a true high speed line, not a higher speed line like in Florida. Brightline and the California High-Speed Rail Authority are even coordinating which train sets they are going to purchase to ensure future interoperability.

Yeah, that idea of a "system" is essential to the success of different projects around the country. Hopefully it all gels together. California is going through some pretty unforgiving terrain. It's similar to the new Japanese Maglev lines that have suffered the same cost overruns building their new lines. Mountains are beautiful, but they are a pain to build rail lines through. France and other nations on the continent put significant resources into developing high speed rail lines that still bear fruit. It is just monstrously expensive building the viaducts and tunnels and getting all the infrastructure sorted. Once the system's infrastructure is in place, hopefully it can be used uninterrupted for decades (Or longer! Some of GWR's infrastructure in England dates back to the Victorian era!).

Fingers crossed it's successful, or the appetite for other projects and expansions could be diminished.

I think Brightline vs CHSR will be taught in schools as a contrast of how to do major projects.

Brightline is building a basic higher speed rail (as they can afford it) and then will upgrade in the future if necessary, CHSR is attempting to build the latest and greatest HSR in hopes they will somehow find the $75 billion more they still need to complete it.

IF CHSR is ever finished it’ll be state of the art, but I’ll be shocked if it’s finished in my lifetime, whereas Brightline is already serving passengers and I’ll be shocked if I’m not riding it to DL in a few short years.

I think CHSR should have connected San Diego and LA first, proving to voters HSR could work, my guess is very few people will ever experience it where it’s being built, Brightline will likely introduce more people to HSR than CHSR (and ironically may provide the exposure needed to get approval for more CSHR funds).

It would be great to have high-speed rail connecting Anaheim and Disneyland!

As I've started a model train layout, I've come to realize Disneyland and Walt Disney World are basically model train layouts. I obviously knew Walt Disney was into modeling trains, but I guess it never clicked that really he was model rail modeler at heart. It cracks me up now. He just has the biggest model train layouts in the world! Disney should sponsor model rail conventions or something. It's in their DNA.

 

[networkpro]

A lot of objections to trains in the United States can be chalked up to the poor management and infrastructure of the existing rail services. As someone who has travelled pretty-extensively on the Northeast Regional Train Service, the best American rail is not remotely comparable to Europe or Asia. That is one of the reasons I'm excited about Brightline. While some of the rolling stock is actually the same as what is used on Amtrak, Brightline seems like they've addressed some of the major failings of our national rail service. Amtrak is abysmal in customer service, digital technology, station facilities, and reliability. Brightline also has a trendy brand image which is not a trivial thing. If Brightline can continue to nail the details, I'm actually optimistic about other firms joining in.

I'm also intrigued about the California project. While massively behind schedule and over budget, once completed it should be the best rail service in the United States.

Very few places have the population density to support a network of trains like Japan, England, and France.

Amtrak is a simply abysmal jobs program. Amtrak's labor cost per infrastructure worker is clearly above that of European railroads; over 2 times that of the average. European worker. Only 15% of its ridership is on the long-distance route and it only owns 27% of the rail lines it uses. So how exactly does it take what it doesn't own? Freight railroads have been required by law to provide Amtrak with “preference” to run passenger trains ahead of freight trains. So while you decrease the passenger emissions impact, you increase the freight emissions impact as those loads are 5 times the exhaust of doing so by train.

So you rob Peter to pay Paul. Amtrak isn't the solution, its a heavy-handed mandate. Brightline and other free market solutions do the cost-benefit analysis before doing anything.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

A lot of objections to trains in the United States can be chalked up to the poor management and infrastructure of the existing rail services.

I think that’s true of mass transit in general in America, we frequently take the busses in London, something we’d never do here because they are so infrequent and because they are often full of questionable people.

Years ago I read something that I think is still true today, it basically said that mass transit should only be considered a success when people choose to use it, not when it’s only used by those that have no other choice.

In America most mass transit is used as a last resort, it’s not a place most people want to find themself if they can avoid it.

 

[Robbiem]

I think that’s true of mass transit in general in America, we frequently take the busses in London, something we’d never do here because they are so infrequent and because they are often full of questionable people.

Years ago I read something that I think is still true today, it basically said that mass transit should only be considered a success when people choose to use it, not when it’s only used by those that have no other choice.

In America most mass transit is used as a last resort, it’s not a place most people want to find themself if they can avoid it.

I think most places public transport would be a last resort. In London now most people use the ‘tube’ because they have to as it would just be crazy to try and drive and park in the centre of the city.

When I was younger though people did drive into the city, not all the time but definitely more than now. The change wasn’t through choice but rather by the increase in the number of cars causing longer journeys and added costs and created by green policies like net zero and low emissions zones.

I know if everything was equal more people would travel by car as point to point in your own bubble will always be more convenient and nicer than public transport

 

[Lilofan]

I think that’s true of mass transit in general in America, we frequently take the busses in London, something we’d never do here because they are so infrequent and because they are often full of questionable people.

Years ago I read something that I think is still true today, it basically said that mass transit should only be considered a success when people choose to use it, not when it’s only used by those that have no other choice.

In America most mass transit is used as a last resort, it’s not a place most people want to find themself if they can avoid it.

Some view mass transit in the USA as a social welfare program.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Some view mass transit in the USA as a social welfare program.

In some ways it is, a lot of homeless people use busses and trains as shelter during the cold/wet months.

 

[FutureCEO]

Trains are an interesting curiosity and they have a fan base. However they are really not needed in the USA. Long trips are better served by aircraft while buses work better for short trips. Trains are anachronistic blivits in the world of transportation.

I take the train into work. Driving sucks. Until we get true fast trains, airports will continue to be used for short trips....like Boston to NYC.

London to Paris is the same distance wise and takes 2.5 hours.

 

[Lilofan]

I think most places public transport would be a last resort. In London now most people use the ‘tube’ because they have to as it would just be crazy to try and drive and park in the centre of the city.

When I was younger though people did drive into the city, not all the time but definitely more than now. The change wasn’t through choice but rather by the increase in the number of cars causing longer journeys and added costs and created by green policies like net zero and low emissions zones.

I know if everything was equal more people would travel by car as point to point in your own bubble will always be more convenient and nicer than public transport

It takes a dedicated driver to drive a manual transmission in a heavily congested city like London. All my cars are stick shift in a sea of automatics in the USA.

 

[lazyboy97o]

100% but also does not nagate any of @Vegas Disney Fan points.

Brightline West really isn’t a great example of efficiency and agility. DesertXpress was started nearly 20 years ago in 2005, three years before the referendum that would mandate the development of the California High Speed Rail system and its route through the center of the state. Yes there are promises of quick construction once it finally starts it’s hard to think they will be met given the optimistic timelines once shared by All Aboard Florida. That’s also for a cut down route that, like CAHSR, will no longer directly connect to the City of Los Angeles and is along an already existing right of way.

 

[Disone]

Brightline West really isn’t a great example of efficiency and agility. DesertXpress was started nearly 20 years ago in 2005, three years before the referendum that would mandate the development of the California High Speed Rail system and its route through the center of the state. Yes there are promises of quick construction once it finally starts it’s hard to think they will be met given the optimistic timelines once shared by All Aboard Florida. That’s also for a cut down route that, like CAHSR, will no longer directly connect to the City of Los Angeles and is along an already existing right of way.

Bright line west is not a continuation of the previous DesertXpress. That project was an attempt that fell apart and failed. Brightline West is a new take on an previous concept, with new players and a new company.

If Bright Line completes West anywhere near the same timeline as the original bright line then yes I would consider it a much better example of how to get something done, esp compared then the California high speed rail project AND DesertXpress, the latter of which not only never got done but really never got started.