Forget fastest to 1 billion at the box office when will Disney reach 2 billion this year.

[WhatJaneSays]

I think you are underestimating WiR and Mary Poppins. Mary was moved up a week because of its reviews. I also thing Christopher Robin's will surprise at the box office. That said I am leaning towards a 2018 box office total over 3.5 billion. And I am with you on hoping BP breaks 700 but I strongly believe Incredibles 2 will break 600.

I haven't done any major calculations on Wreck-It Ralph 2 yet. But I don't have strong hopes on Nutcracker to crack the likely 250-300m needed to get to 3 billion before Wreck-It Ralph 2 comes out. Provided all the releases have expected to high box office takes, even with Christopher Robin doing 150m pre-Nutcracker, Disney's only at 2.75b. So I think the 3 billion should come sometime during or after the OW for Wreck-It Ralph 2.

Mary Poppins Returns will do well regardless of when it's released but the box office for the year is over on 12/31. Moving it from Christmas day to before the 5 other major wide releases on 12/21 just means it more of it's box counted for 2018.

 

[BrianLo]

Incredibles 2 will definitely crawl over 600 million. It's still tracking comfortably ahead of Toy Story 3 that had 32 million left in its tank at this juncture. I think the 38 it needs for 600 is guaranteed (they'll push it over with a theatre expansion if they have to). I imagine it has about 40-50 left. Ant Man probably has around 50-60 left depending on how it continues to leg out. Everything else is running of fumes.

Leaving us shy 330 odd million.

An argument can be made that literally nothing Disney has released this year has performed like any realistic expectation outside of Ant Man. Avengers, Incredibles and obviously Black Panther have blown through the highest of expectations. A Wrinkle in Time and Solo have definitely under performed low-balls.


How does one even attempt to nail down the remainder?

Christopher Robin occupies Pete's Dragon slot (75 million), the 2011 Animated release made 26 million. Inherently I feel both aren't good markers. With a project 30 million opening this feels like a 100-125mil release.

The Nutcracker feels like an impending bomb. Nothing has over indexed for Disney recently without some strong brand power. 75? I just get Alice: Through the Looking Glass vibes.

Ralph Breaks the Internet feels like something that is about to blow the doors off its former performance. However, no Disney Animation movie has really brought in all that much over 200mil before the year end. But this is also a first time sequel situation... It doesn't have the Incredibles, Toy Story 3 or Finding Dory type lead times for nostalgia. I think its opening frame or second week will securely push the company over 3 billion, but making much over 200mil before year end would be very different than any other release historically.

Now Poppins is the real one to watch. We've seen the power of nostalgia for long-awaited sequels in full force recently. 50+ years certainly takes the cake though. I think this one has New Year legs more than an impressive opening frame though. Musicals tend to do that with Christmas releases.

I'm very confident 3billion is bagged, but I think 3.2-3.3 is the final endpoint. 3.5 requires something to massively over index. Really neither of the two year end potentials have the time to really do that.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

Incredibles 2 will definitely crawl over 600 million. It's still tracking comfortably ahead of Toy Story 3 that had 32 million left in its tank at this juncture. I think the 38 it needs for 600 is guaranteed (they'll push it over with a theatre expansion if they have to). I imagine it has about 40-50 left. Ant Man probably has around 50-60 left depending on how it continues to leg out. Everything else is running of fumes.

Leaving us shy 330 odd million.

An argument can be made that literally nothing Disney has released this year has performed like any realistic expectation outside of Ant Man. Avengers, Incredibles and obviously Black Panther have blown through the highest of expectations. A Wrinkle in Time and Solo have definitely under performed low-balls.


How does one even attempt to nail down the remainder?

Christopher Robin occupies Pete's Dragon slot (75 million), the 2011 Animated release made 26 million. Inherently I feel both aren't good markers. With a project 30 million opening this feels like a 100-125mil release.

The Nutcracker feels like an impending bomb. Nothing has over indexed for Disney recently without some strong brand power. 75? I just get Alice: Through the Looking Glass vibes.

Ralph Breaks the Internet feels like something that is about to blow the doors off its former performance. However, no Disney Animation movie has really brought in all that much over 200mil before the year end. But this is also a first time sequel situation... It doesn't have the Incredibles, Toy Story 3 or Finding Dory type lead times for nostalgia. I think its opening frame or second week will securely push the company over 3 billion, but making much over 200mil before year end would be very different than any other release historically.

Now Poppins is the real one to watch. We've seen the power of nostalgia for long-awaited sequels in full force recently. 50+ years certainly takes the cake though. I think this one has New Year legs more than an impressive opening frame though. Musicals tend to do that with Christmas releases.

I'm very confident 3billion is bagged, but I think 3.2-3.3 is the final endpoint. 3.5 requires something to massively over index. Really neither of the two year end potentials have the time to really do that.

No mater how you cut it ... it's been a weird year for Disney. A lot of general calculations have been right but many movie by movie ones have been off. Even with 2 of 6 movies so far this year under performing it nearly doesn't matter. Almost the same going forward, even if the playing movies coast out of theaters and the remaining 4 make a collective average of 100m each before the end of the year ... Disney still makes 3 Billion.

If we take the low end for the past movies:

• Black Panther gets it's 700m
• Wrinkle closed at bit over 100.4m
• Infinity War with a near total drop off leaves them at 678m
• Solo with the same treatment is at 213m
• Incredibles 2 with a -50% week to week bottoms out at 572m (this past week they've been pulling -20% to -30%)
• Ant-Man 2 on a similar track gets them to 193m

Plus the hold overs from 2017, that's 2.6 billion for the low end.

Going forward:

• Between Christopher Robin and Nutcracker if we get 1 flop and 1 expected take collectively doing 200m for the year
• If Wreck-It Ralph 2 tracks to the first one at 41 days it will be at 165m
• Mary Poppins Returns is still kind of the dark horse. 13 days is not a lot of time but it's in that slot that makes blockbusters; before this year the 3 top domestic movies of all time opened with that slot (5 of the top 10). It's got 2 full holiday weekends. Even on a mediocre run it should be able to clear 100m in that time

I'm thinking the basement, barring a total failure rate, is going to be 3.07 billion. That's 70m over the 2016 record. On a more realistic run I'd guess a 3.15-3.2 to be the average run, but if one or more of those 4 are an unexpected hit with no flops it could be as extreme as 3.35-3.4 but that would take some doing.

 

[Princess Leia]

If Disney chose to go the traditional animated route with the Nutcracker, it could have been something special. The movie we’re getting, however, looks like a hot mess

 

[RandomPrincess]

Disney now has 3 films that made $1 billion so far this year -
Incredibles 2 just crossed $1 billion!

http://ew.com/movies/2018/07/31/inc...n=entertainmentweekly&utm_source=facebook.com

 

[WhatJaneSays]

Over the weekend #2 Universal crossed the 1 billion domestic mark with the help of Mamma Mia 2 and Skyscraper. They have no releases for nearly 8 weeks until House With A Clock In Its Walls on 9/21

#3 stays with WB at 757.9m, boosted slightly from Teen Titans Go! To The Movies. The Meg and Crazy Rich Asians are their August releases.

Fox at #4 is slightly behind WB with 732.5m. They've had no releases since Deadpool 2 in May. With a good opening from The Darkest Minds this coming weekend they could overtake WB, but with their back-to-back releases the following weeks it's unlikely they'd keep that spot.

Coming in at #5 is Sony at 662.3m, The Equalizer 2 looks to fade a bit with competition from the latest Mission Impossible. They do have 3 releases in August so there may be some more movement soon.

... and I'll include Paramount at #6 this week with 415m gaining 68m from Mission Impossible Fallout. I don't expect them to move up in the ranks as have they currently have no further releases until November.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

Pre going into this weekend Disney is at 2.68 Billion.

• Christopher Robin with 58 million in it's first 2 weeks
• Ant-Man and the Wasp growing to 205.7 million at it's 6th week
• Incredibles 2 slowing only a bit with 591.7 million in 9 weeks
• Solo looks to top out near it's current 213.3 million at 12 weeks in
• Infinity War is also likely nearing it's end game with 687.4 million for it's 16th week
• Black Panther closed it's insane 25 week run at $700,059,566

While Disney has no new releases until November, Marvel Studios is having a 10th anniversary IMAX film fest in the next few weeks. We'll have to wait and see how/if those numbers get reported.

 

[seascape]

Pre going into this weekend Disney is at 2.68 Billion.

• Christopher Robin with 58 million in it's first 2 weeks
• Ant-Man and the Wasp growing to 205.7 million at it's 6th week
• Incredibles 2 slowing only a bit with 591.7 million in 9 weeks
• Solo looks to top out near it's current 213.3 million at 12 weeks in
• Infinity War is also likely nearing it's end game with 687.4 million for it's 16th week
• Black Panther closed it's insane 25 week run at $700,059,566

While Disney has no new releases until November, Marvel Studios is having a 10th anniversary IMAX film fest in the next few weeks. We'll have to wait and see how/if those numbers get reported.

I am very interested in seeing how the Marvel anniversary movies do. I think it would have been better to run it weekly rather than on consecutive nights but only time will tell. The full series is available for $75.00 so I dont see this adding too much to any individual film or more than 10 million to the total annual box office because I can't find it listed at any theater close enough to my home and there is no way i can dedicate 10 straight days to Marvel.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

I am very interested in seeing how the Marvel anniversary movies do. I think it would have been better to run it weekly rather than on consecutive nights but only time will tell. The full series is available for $75.00 so I dont see this adding too much to any individual film or more than 10 million to the total annual box office because I can't find it listed at any theater close enough to my home and there is no way i can dedicate 10 straight days to Marvel.

Yeah, I don't see it moving the needle much. From what I've been able to tell it's in less than 200 theaters with IMAX, even if every showing at every theater sold out I think it would max out at 5 million for the whole run. In reality if it does 1.5 to 2 million total I'd be pleasantly surprised. (That being said I have tickets for 2 different shows already )

 

[seascape]

Through Monday August 20, Disney is now at $2,700,246,921 for the year. Just think if they had done a better job with A Wrinkle in Time and Solo. In any case there are 4 months and 11 days left in the calendar year to demolish their $3 billion record from 2016.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

After a fairly good holiday weekend for most movies it's time for a recap!

Disney is sitting at 2.73 Billion domestic and 3.22 in the international markets, for 5.95 Billion WW.

• Infinity War, 678.7 Million - ending it's 19th weekend with 3-4 ish weeks to go I'm not expecting many further gains but it may bump to 679 million on it's own unless another internal push or re-release later.
• Solo, 213.7 Million - after 14 weeks with a fairly slow roll downward I expect the run to end early at 18 weeks without much additional money coming in.
• Incredibles 2, 602.5 Million - only the 9th movie in history to make it to the 600m mark ... but the 3rd this year to do so! Finishing out the weekend strong with an expansion into the second run theaters soon there should be a few more million in the tank.
• Ant-Man and the Wasp, 213.9 million - it's slowing a bit, but still ahead of estimates with low week-to-week drops. It also has a likely second run boost and few more million to go as well.
• Christopher Robin, 87.6 million - with a good 4 day weekend showing of over 7.2 million it's a few percentage points ahead of my 5th weekend estimation. I had originally estimated final in the 90-93m range but with good holds it could now top 100m.

We're in the big lull between Disney movies right now.

• Nutcracker and the Four Realms, releasing on November 2nd, is the biggest unknown. With the disappointing run of A Wrinkle in Time and the rate of "flops" this year it's the next likely candidate for under-performing. However, judging that is still difficult as the marketing machine has yet to get moving on it. Baring a total flop like Alice Through the Looking Glass, even on the low end I would expect a 120m run.
• Ralph Breaks the Internet, releasing on November 21st, gets the benefit of being the Thanksgiving movie and a sequel. It's been fairly slim year for animated movies, even including Early Man and Isle Of Dogs. With little family friendly competition until Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse on December 14th and Mary Poppins Returns on the 19th it should have just as good a run as the original Wreck-It Ralph. (Which at 6 weeks was at 165m and had slightly more competition.) On a great run we expect more than 200m by year end.
• Mary Poppins Returns, releasing on December 19th, could hit the middle ground with a good performance but limited run time with only 13 days before year end. With such a crowded holiday schedule it could struggle to get 100m in that time even without direct competition.

All things considered I still expect Disney to break the 3 Billion domestic mark with the opening week of Ralph Breaks the Internet. It is possible that they may hit earlier than than but would require a 250m+ take for Nutcracker in under 3 weeks in addition to a 100m total for Christopher Robin ... it could happen but it's fairly unlikely unless Nutcracker is an unexpected surprise hit.

For year end I'm expecting a 3.15-3.2 Billion domestic on a moderate run, but as much as 3.3 Billion with a great showing of their three remaining movies of the year. Either way they are breaking their previous record in 2016 by a good amount.


In other studio news Warner Bros (#3) has made the 1 Billion dollar domestic mark along with Universal (#2). Sony has moved ahead to the #4 spot, with Fox falling to #5. Paramount remains at a distant #6.

• Green Book has been added to Universal's schedule in November
• the Mowgli movie planed to be released by Warner Bros has moved to a Netflix release
• an Untitled WB film slated for Christmas was removed from the schedule
• Escape Room, from Sony, was removed from the schedule
• White Boy Rick on 9/14, also from Sony, was added
• The Old Man & the Gun was added to the Fox slate in October
• The Hate U Give was removed from the Fox slate
• Instant Family was added to the Paramount slate for November

 

[WhatJaneSays]

Avengers: Infinity War ended it's domestic run slightly earlier than I expected at 20 weeks, with a final number at $678,815,482. It's still playing in a few select overseas markets but it should stay at it's 2.04 Billion WW number.

It's the #4 highest domestic grossing movie of all time. And only the 4th movie to break the 2 Billion world wide number.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

Disney has rolled up to 2.75 Billion domestic and over 6 Billion WW.

Solo officially ended it's run at $213,767,512. (Surprisingly still at #8 domestic for the year so far, but that will likely change with the remaining slate of movies this year.)

Incredibles 2 after it's 16th weekend with 606.8 million is nearing it's end. Ant-Man and the Wasp is just a shade under 216.2 million after it's 13th weekend. Both movies should be phasing out of theaters within the next 2-4 weeks, neither should be making any further jumps in box office. Christopher Robin has stalled out a bit at 97.6 million, but Disney may make a push to carry it over the 100m point like they did with Wrinkle in Time.

The tracking for the Nutcracker and the Four Realms has lowered again, bringing it to the 80-100m range. With the movie still a month away it's to early to really tell, yet with the new Grinch movie the following week I can't imagine it will have legs. On the other side the tracking for Ralph Breaks the Internet is moving up into the 200m range, which makes sense as the original made 189.4m and the previous films in that slot have been trending that way (Coco at 209.7m and Moana at 248.7).

Mary Poppins Returns becomes less of a wild card with mostly positive reactions to it's latest trailer, and another movie (Alita: Battle Angel) moving to a farther out date. Is still faces some of the most crowded competition of the year with 8 wide releases plus a re-release. However there is a lack of whole family movies at this time with only Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse the weekend prior really falling into that category.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

Disney is still holding at a bit over 2.75 Billion domestic and 6 Billion WW. So lets talk about the other players in the game!

Warner Brothers is maintaining it's #2 position with 1.36 Billion domestic and 4.16 Billion WW. Their latest release, A Star is Born, has done well with 97.5 million. WB has had a few other high return movies lately with Crazy Rich Asians and The Nun. Their remaining slate of moves this year has 2 strong potential blockbusters with Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald in November and Aquaman in December. With both over performing and good takes on their other movies there is a slight chance of WB making the 2 Billion mark by years end, but that feels unlikely to me.

Universal at #3 has banked most of their 1.23 Billion domestic and 3.44 Billion WW from movies earlier in the year. Mostly Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!, and Fifty Shades Freed. The still have Halloween coming soon and Dr. Seuss' The Grinch on their slate; along with 4 other movies and a re-release of Schindler's List in December. With more releases than WB there is a chance on such a crammed season Universal could overtake them for #2.

#4 Sony just cracked it's 1 Billion domestic and 2 Billion WW with Venom. Sony has had a pretty wide gap between it's 100m+ and sub 30m movies this year. It's surprising to note that so far their highest grossing movie this year was Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle from last year with over 235m being made in 2018. It's doubtful that any of their current or remaining movies will top that Jumanji number. The most recent similar case of this I've found was with Avatar in 2009/2010.

Coming in at a firm #5 is Fox at 807m domestic and 1.68b WW. They've had a fairly low return on most of their movies since Deadpool 2. They've moved moves to the following year leaving the rest of their slate at only 2 (plus a re-release of Deadpool and/or Deadpool 2?). Unless the response to Bohemian Rhapsody is out of the arena, I can't imagine a 1 billion year for them.


Rounding out the rest of the Top 10 are:
#6 Paramount at 567.2m
#7 Lionsgate at 340.2m
#8 STX Entertainment at 245.8m
#9 Focus Features at 148.1m
#10 Fox Searchlight at 112.3m

 

[Ripken10]

Disney is still holding at a bit over 2.75 Billion domestic and 6 Billion WW. So lets talk about the other players in the game!

Warner Brothers is maintaining it's #2 position with 1.36 Billion domestic and 4.16 Billion WW. Their latest release, A Star is Born, has done well with 97.5 million. WB has had a few other high return movies lately with Crazy Rich Asians and The Nun. Their remaining slate of moves this year has 2 strong potential blockbusters with Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald in November and Aquaman in December. With both over performing and good takes on their other movies there is a slight chance of WB making the 2 Billion mark by years end, but that feels unlikely to me.

Universal at #3 has banked most of their 1.23 Billion domestic and 3.44 Billion WW from movies earlier in the year. Mostly Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!, and Fifty Shades Freed. The still have Halloween coming soon and Dr. Seuss' The Grinch on their slate; along with 4 other movies and a re-release of Schindler's List in December. With more releases than WB there is a chance on such a crammed season Universal could overtake them for #2.

#4 Sony just cracked it's 1 Billion domestic and 2 Billion WW with Venom. Sony has had a pretty wide gap between it's 100m+ and sub 30m movies this year. It's surprising to note that so far their highest grossing movie this year was Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle from last year with over 235m being made in 2018. It's doubtful that any of their current or remaining movies will top that Jumanji number. The most recent similar case of this I've found was with Avatar in 2009/2010.

Coming in at a firm #5 is Fox at 807m domestic and 1.68b WW. They've had a fairly low return on most of their movies since Deadpool 2. They've moved moves to the following year leaving the rest of their slate at only 2 (plus a re-release of Deadpool and/or Deadpool 2?). Unless the response to Bohemian Rhapsody is out of the arena, I can't imagine a 1 billion year for them.


Rounding out the rest of the Top 10 are:
#6 Paramount at 567.2m
#7 Lionsgate at 340.2m
#8 STX Entertainment at 245.8m
#9 Focus Features at 148.1m
#10 Fox Searchlight at 112.3m

I am curious why you think Venom only has a slight chance of overtaking the Jumanji number? Just going on historical data, it seems most likely it will overtake Jumanji for the top film for Sony this year. All the films (besides Avatar and children's movies, as they would skew the numbers too much in favor of Venom) that had an opening weekend between 75 million and 85 million averaged a final box office of over 269 million. If you remove Passion of the Christ (as one could argue it was a bit of an outlier) they average over 259 million. If you take out the Harry Potters and Star Wars Episode II (since they may have a bigger multiplier due to its following) the average is still over 242 million. Only 3 movies in that range didn't end up with more than Jumanji (Solo: 84 million opening, 213 million total; Oz 79 million opening, 234 million total; DaVinci Code: 77 million opening; 217 million total).

I am not saying it is a definite, as we all know comic book movies are more front loaded than the average movie, but it certainly isn't unlikely. In fact, in support of what you said, of the 14 movies that had a bigger opening than Venom, 7 of those movies still had a bigger second weekend than Venom (on the other hand 7 of those movies Venom had a bigger second weekend then). It had the 4th smallest drop in it's second weekend of those 14 movies (Dr. Strange -49.5%, X2 -53.2%, Justice League -56.2%, Venom -56.4%). But as I said, comic movies are more front loaded than most movies. Of the 14 movies that made more than 80 million opening weekend and didn't beat Jumanji, 9 of them are comic book movies. I think it will be close, real close. This weekend will be the real sign of if it has a chance. The third weekend is where many of the comic book movies that didn't make it had it's biggest drop off (see Justice League).

Sorry, I love your post, and wasn't trying to be nitpicky. When you said that it just got me interested to look at the numbers. I haven't even seen Venom, and in all actuality I do think it will have trouble reaching that number due to a more limited audience compared to other movies in the same range as them.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

I am curious why you think Venom only has a slight chance of overtaking the Jumanji number? Just going on historical data, it seems most likely it will overtake Jumanji for the top film for Sony this year. All the films (besides Avatar and children's movies, as they would skew the numbers too much in favor of Venom) that had an opening weekend between 75 million and 85 million averaged a final box office of over 269 million. If you remove Passion of the Christ (as one could argue it was a bit of an outlier) they average over 259 million. If you take out the Harry Potters and Star Wars Episode II (since they may have a bigger multiplier due to its following) the average is still over 242 million. Only 3 movies in that range didn't end up with more than Jumanji (Solo: 84 million opening, 213 million total; Oz 79 million opening, 234 million total; DaVinci Code: 77 million opening; 217 million total).

I am not saying it is a definite, as we all know comic book movies are more front loaded than the average movie, but it certainly isn't unlikely. In fact, in support of what you said, of the 14 movies that had a bigger opening than Venom, 7 of those movies still had a bigger second weekend than Venom (on the other hand 7 of those movies Venom had a bigger second weekend then). It had the 4th smallest drop in it's second weekend of those 14 movies (Dr. Strange -49.5%, X2 -53.2%, Justice League -56.2%, Venom -56.4%). But as I said, comic movies are more front loaded than most movies. Of the 14 movies that made more than 80 million opening weekend and didn't beat Jumanji, 9 of them are comic book movies. I think it will be close, real close. This weekend will be the real sign of if it has a chance. The third weekend is where many of the comic book movies that didn't make it had it's biggest drop off (see Justice League).

Sorry, I love your post, and wasn't trying to be nitpicky. When you said that it just got me interested to look at the numbers. I haven't even seen Venom, and in all actuality I do think it will have trouble reaching that number due to a more limited audience compared to other movies in the same range as them.

You're not being nitpicky! Venom does have a chance to do it, and for a lot of the reasons you listed. (Personally I give it about a 10-15% chance.)

Mostly I feel it's unlikely due to the ground it still has to cover and the time of year it was released. The best releases in October are naturally dominated by horror flicks which does work to Venom's advantage. But with the greatly anticipated Halloween coming out this weekend and the overlap between the two markets means it's 3rd and 4th weekends are likely to under deliver just when it needs to remain on track. While there is a lack of direct competition after that the damage will have already been done unless Sony is willing to spend $$$ on more marketing.

From Venom's opening week of 107.1m it would have to retain an average near 55.5% of it's market week-over-week. Which is still doable, but with it's numbers so far this past weekend and weekdays it would have to start putting 60-65-70% numbers in the following weeks to make up. Of all the superhero movies that have made 230m+ only 3 had sub 81m opening weekends, and just 1 in the last 20 years.

Even on it's current track it should pass 200m sometime around week 6 or 7, which is honestly on the faster side of what I was projecting. And there is a lack of direct competition beyond Halloween so there is a higher chance of a rally later in the run.

 

[BrianLo]

I am curious why you think Venom only has a slight chance of overtaking the Jumanji number? Just going on historical data, it seems most likely it will overtake Jumanji for the top film for Sony this year. All the films (besides Avatar and children's movies, as they would skew the numbers too much in favor of Venom) that had an opening weekend between 75 million and 85 million averaged a final box office of over 269 million. If you remove Passion of the Christ (as one could argue it was a bit of an outlier) they average over 259 million. If you take out the Harry Potters and Star Wars Episode II (since they may have a bigger multiplier due to its following) the average is still over 242 million. Only 3 movies in that range didn't end up with more than Jumanji (Solo: 84 million opening, 213 million total; Oz 79 million opening, 234 million total; DaVinci Code: 77 million opening; 217 million total).

I am not saying it is a definite, as we all know comic book movies are more front loaded than the average movie, but it certainly isn't unlikely. In fact, in support of what you said, of the 14 movies that had a bigger opening than Venom, 7 of those movies still had a bigger second weekend than Venom (on the other hand 7 of those movies Venom had a bigger second weekend then). It had the 4th smallest drop in it's second weekend of those 14 movies (Dr. Strange -49.5%, X2 -53.2%, Justice League -56.2%, Venom -56.4%). But as I said, comic movies are more front loaded than most movies. Of the 14 movies that made more than 80 million opening weekend and didn't beat Jumanji, 9 of them are comic book movies. I think it will be close, real close. This weekend will be the real sign of if it has a chance. The third weekend is where many of the comic book movies that didn't make it had it's biggest drop off (see Justice League).

Sorry, I love your post, and wasn't trying to be nitpicky. When you said that it just got me interested to look at the numbers. I haven't even seen Venom, and in all actuality I do think it will have trouble reaching that number due to a more limited audience compared to other movies in the same range as them.

I think Logan is actually the strongest case for why Venom will not make 235. They are tracking very similarly, are obviously similar movies in terms of appeal. Logan has the offset of much better reviews, but a more limited rating. On top of all of that Venom is actually slowly falling behind Logan.

I'll actually take it one further and suggest that I think Venom doesn't have a chance at 235, I just can't see such a poorly reviewed movie having longer legs than Logan to make up a 20+ million (and climbing) deficit.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=venomlogan.htm

 

[WhatJaneSays]

I've heard some rumblings that their may be a push to get Christopher Robin to the 100m mark similar to the plan for Wrinkle in Time. There has already been the 10th week expansion that Wrinkle employed as well. With 1.36m to cross that mark, less than half of what Wrinkle had to go at that same time, it's likely that one more good campaign will do it.

If they manage that with Christopher Robin and the remaining moves of the year clear 100m this will be (as far as I've been able to tell) the first time in history that a studio had a 100m+ box office on all movies released in a singe year. Disney would have done this in 2017 if they had not released the Born in China documentary which only made 13.8m; their next lowest movie that year was Pirates 5 at 172.5m.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I've heard some rumblings that their may be a push to get Christopher Robin to the 100m mark similar to the plan for Wrinkle in Time. There has already been the 10th week expansion that Wrinkle employed as well. With 1.36m to cross that mark, less than half of what Wrinkle had to go at that same time, it's likely that one more good campaign will do it.

If they manage that with Christopher Robin and the remaining moves of the year clear 100m this will be (as far as I've been able to tell) the first time in history that a studio had a 100m+ box office on all movies released in a singe year. Disney would have done this in 2017 if they had not released the Born in China documentary which only made 13.8m; their next lowest movie that year was Pirates 5 at 172.5m.

Well, they can indeed crow about all their movies this year hitting the $100 million domestic mark this year. Doesn't mean that A Wrinkle or Christopher made a profit. (At least, not a profit at the box office, discounting future revenue from the home market.) Though, Christopher is coming close to breaking even and there are still a handful of small foreign markets its yet to debut in (and it never got the chance at the Chinese market thanks to that dictator's fragile ego). Wrinkle, OTOH, has a big loss due to it's high budget most likely due to high star salaries.

Fun factoid: Since Cinderella in 2015, Disney Studios has made 13 movies. Only three made a profit at the box office: Cinderella, Jungle Book, and Beauty and the Beast. And people wonder why Disney Studios is doubling down on live action remakes.

In other news: Venom's box current box office take puts it in the black.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

Not much movement on the Disney front with the expected and received flop of Nutcracker.

Our domestic standings before the weekend hits:

1. Disney - 2.79 Billion
2. Universal - 1.53 Billion, moved up from #3, but will likely drop back after Fantastic Beasts 2 opens
3. Warner Bros. - 1.47 Billion
4. Sony - 1.11 Billion
5. Fox - 954.37 Million, looks like they're going to hit that Billion after all with the boost of Bohemian Rhapsody