It is so clear that the fastest to 1 billion movie tickets sold is no longer relevant. 2 billion will be the new yearly goal for most studios while Disney will constantly break 3 and 4 billion a year, once the merger is complete. Anyway Disney will either break 1 billion in April or early May. However with the additional movies they have coming out I predict they will break 2 billion by the end of June. They will also most likely break their all time record of 3+ billion for the year and maybe 4 billion, but I don't think they will make it to 4 this year because Mary Poppins is coming out too late. Also there is an actual limit on tickets the public can buy and there are other studios that put out great movies. Disney does not have and never will have a monopoly on quality movies.
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Forget fastest to 1 billion at the box office when will Disney reach 2 billion this year.
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BrianLo
Well-Known Member
I'll quote myself below from several months ago. I don't think 1 billion will be broken until somewhat early during Infinity War's run. Certainly good enough for second place. Worst case scenario opening day of Solo pops them above the line for 1 day faster than 2017. I'm optimistic towards 3 this year, but I can't low-ball guarantee it.
What's interesting already is that things are so unpredictable based on what should have been easy comps. The Last Jedi/Coco combo way underperformed TFA/Good Dinosaur. I even somewhat accounted for domestic numbers being off a third (which it actually is in the end) - but TLJ was so much more 'front-loaded' into the previous year.
Coco obviously did better, but not drastically so... unlike the 50 million behind I predicted, we instead fall 170mil off 2016's pace. Yikes...
But now we're hearing Black Panther doing in the 4 day weekend what I modestly expected over it's entire gross!! This is no Dr. Strange, this isn't even Guardians Vol 1. It's so much more.
So oddly enough despite being so wrong on three movies, the running tally may come out in the wash.
I don't want to change predictions because these were long range low-balls I made, but I'm pleased with how modest I was on Solo. 400mil domestically seems still hopefully a safe number. Infinity War coming off this Black Panther bonanza is easily 100(s) off. I hope Wrinkle in Time finds it audience, but these things are so unpredictable.
The only thing we can predict is Disney somehow finds gobbles of money. Despite one being soft - something else completely blows away anyone's expectations.
What's interesting already is that things are so unpredictable based on what should have been easy comps. The Last Jedi/Coco combo way underperformed TFA/Good Dinosaur. I even somewhat accounted for domestic numbers being off a third (which it actually is in the end) - but TLJ was so much more 'front-loaded' into the previous year.
Coco obviously did better, but not drastically so... unlike the 50 million behind I predicted, we instead fall 170mil off 2016's pace. Yikes...
But now we're hearing Black Panther doing in the 4 day weekend what I modestly expected over it's entire gross!! This is no Dr. Strange, this isn't even Guardians Vol 1. It's so much more.
So oddly enough despite being so wrong on three movies, the running tally may come out in the wash.
I don't want to change predictions because these were long range low-balls I made, but I'm pleased with how modest I was on Solo. 400mil domestically seems still hopefully a safe number. Infinity War coming off this Black Panther bonanza is easily 100(s) off. I hope Wrinkle in Time finds it audience, but these things are so unpredictable.
The only thing we can predict is Disney somehow finds gobbles of money. Despite one being soft - something else completely blows away anyone's expectations.
I originally thought Black Panther would hit just under 400 million but now think it could hit 500 million. If it totally goes crazy with all the buzz even more.
My wife can't wait until A Wrinkle in Time comes out so I think that will do better than expected also. That is why I think there is a slight chance that they will break the billion dollar make before Infinity Wars. In any case because of Infinity Ways and Star Wars and Incredible 2, I see Disney breaking 2 billion by the end of July.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
500 mil remains a very elusive club as many movies that explode out of the gate sputter into the mid 4’s. I wouldn’t place any in that group lightly.
I actually think the way this is tracking through the weekend that this is a 500 mil movie.
Comscore is usually a good indicator of legging multipliers, only this and Avengers scored an A+. Tellingly the internet trolls are still gleefully attempting to run down RT. Some people lead sad lives.
The way the actual box office has gone so far is crazy. Opens 8th on Friday, 3rd on Saturday, 2nd on Sunday and 1st on Monday and again on Tuesday. 263.2 million in North America in 5 days. It looks like 400 million by Sunday in just 10 days. 500 million should be broken easily and there is a small chance of beating Star Wars Last Jedi and breaking 600 million. If it does beat SWLJ then it is very possible the 1 billion company box office will be broken before Infinity Wars. They will pass the 400 million mark today.
WhatJaneSays
Well-Known Member
Disney's current record is 126 days (May 7th) to a Billion. After yesterdays actuals came in they are already 555.3 million into that; 421.9 from Black Panther, 133.4 from hold overs from 2017.
With the Avengers movie's entire opening weekend pre-May 7th it's nearly a sure thing they'll shave at least 1 day off that record. What will be interesting is if they can pop that number before Avengers 3 even comes out.
The 2017 movies are about taped out, maybe topping off at 135 million? Black Panther had it's original projections for anything from a 2.5-3.0 multiplier, 500-600 million, with it at 421.9 already the higher is slightly more likely. A Wrinkle in Time is getting mixed reviews, but was tracking in the 120-140 million range for it's run.
That leaves them 250-125 mil short of the billion, but if Black Panther keeps preforming like it has and Wrinkle in Time gets a little boost ... it's not unreasonable for Disney to have inched over the $1 Billion mark before May.
Even if Avengers 3, Solo, Incredibles 2, and Ant-Man and Wasp all under perform I could see them at $2-2.5 billion by the end of summer.
With the Avengers movie's entire opening weekend pre-May 7th it's nearly a sure thing they'll shave at least 1 day off that record. What will be interesting is if they can pop that number before Avengers 3 even comes out.
The 2017 movies are about taped out, maybe topping off at 135 million? Black Panther had it's original projections for anything from a 2.5-3.0 multiplier, 500-600 million, with it at 421.9 already the higher is slightly more likely. A Wrinkle in Time is getting mixed reviews, but was tracking in the 120-140 million range for it's run.
That leaves them 250-125 mil short of the billion, but if Black Panther keeps preforming like it has and Wrinkle in Time gets a little boost ... it's not unreasonable for Disney to have inched over the $1 Billion mark before May.
Even if Avengers 3, Solo, Incredibles 2, and Ant-Man and Wasp all under perform I could see them at $2-2.5 billion by the end of summer.
WhatJaneSays
Well-Known Member
... and ... they moved Avengers 3 to 4/27. That strikes me as a fairly confidant move.
WhatJaneSays
Well-Known Member
Bumping from the depths of 2 months ago! Look how much has changed!
So ... we're over the 1 billion mark now, and 202 million on the way to the 2 billion mark. They still appear to be on track to hit that before any other studio crosses the billion dollar. By my estimation Disney should be over the mark either right before or after the opening of Incredibles 2 on June 15th.
Even looking at more conservative numbers (625 for IW and 325 for Solo) for mid June they'd be at a bit less than 120 mill short of 2 billion, which is less than what a reasonable opening weekend for Incredibles 2 plus the other still playing movies would be.
So ... we're over the 1 billion mark now, and 202 million on the way to the 2 billion mark. They still appear to be on track to hit that before any other studio crosses the billion dollar. By my estimation Disney should be over the mark either right before or after the opening of Incredibles 2 on June 15th.
- The hold over movies form 2017 have all ended their runs with 136.6 mil
- Black Panther will likely be at around (or just over) 700 mil by then
- Wrinkle in Time should top out at 95 mil
- Avengers: Infinity War will be 7 weeks in and depending on it's holds could be as low as 600 mil (x2.33 OW like Age of Ultron) or as high as 835 mil (x3.25 OW like Black Panther) - most likely in the 640-710 mil range
- Solo will be at 3 weeks, even doing 80-85% of Rogue One that gives a 365-385 mill range
Even looking at more conservative numbers (625 for IW and 325 for Solo) for mid June they'd be at a bit less than 120 mill short of 2 billion, which is less than what a reasonable opening weekend for Incredibles 2 plus the other still playing movies would be.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Other outlets are mis-reporting it, but Variety where the story originates is calling current tracking on Solo ~170mil for the four day. Which puts it on fairly equal footing with Rogue One, 170 mil for the four day, 150 mil for the 3 day.
Obviously we've seen a big trend recently with these Disney high earners ultimately blowing past early tracking. I don't know if that will totally be the case, but it certainly means Solo will be quite unlikely to undershoot these numbers.
I'd say Disney will be ultimately happy and those who think this will be some great TLJ reckoning will be grumpy.
Obviously we've seen a big trend recently with these Disney high earners ultimately blowing past early tracking. I don't know if that will totally be the case, but it certainly means Solo will be quite unlikely to undershoot these numbers.
I'd say Disney will be ultimately happy and those who think this will be some great TLJ reckoning will be grumpy.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Solo Fandago pre-sales have outpaced Black Panther to land #2 all-time behind Infinity War.
While a meaningless historical statistic as reserved seating and technology has turned every event film into a pre-buy. Audiences are getting savvy.
Fandago pre-sales for Black Panther were poo-poo'd as equally meaningless and look how that turned out. I think the high 100's seems more and more a lock for a four day total. Mayyybbbeee 200 for 4, 175 for 3.
While a meaningless historical statistic as reserved seating and technology has turned every event film into a pre-buy. Audiences are getting savvy.
Fandago pre-sales for Black Panther were poo-poo'd as equally meaningless and look how that turned out. I think the high 100's seems more and more a lock for a four day total. Mayyybbbeee 200 for 4, 175 for 3.
WhatJaneSays
Well-Known Member
If the estimations for the weekend are correct Disney should be in the 1.35-1.4 billion range for the year.
- Solo is tracking slightly higher now that the tickets are on sale and the marketing is rolling out to more places.
- Infinity War is expecting a -53% drop but some places are more optimistic with a -50% or better drop.
- Black Panther looks like it's retaining a top 10 spot even with 3 new wide releases
WhatJaneSays
Well-Known Member
After the weekend actuals Disney is at 1.378 billion for the year.
Wrinkle in Time, currently 95.5 million, is nearing it's final weeks. Not much more action expected.
Black Panther, currently 693.2 million, after an amazing hold last weekend has returned to a more typical -31.3%. It is going to home release shortly so that trend should accelerate. However it's still expected to top 700 million by the time it leaves theaters for good.
Infinity War, currently 453.1 million, had a slightly bigger than expected drop it's second weekend, but slightly higher than expected returns during the weekdays. (Maybe people that met sold out shows OW opted to go before the next weekend to avoid spoilers?) It's -55.5% second weekend drop puts it squarely between the previous 2 Avengers movies; -50.3% for the original, -59.4% for Age of Ultron. If that's a trend the 3rd weekend should fall between -50% and -46% for 57.3 to 61.9 million. Personal I'm erring on the lower 57.3 side due to the high OW. 550 million by the end of the 3rd weekend. After that it gets a little complicated due to Deadpool 2.
I'm still estimating Disney crossing the 2 billion mark with the OW of Incredibles 2. The 1.5 billion mark could be crossed as early as the end of next weekend, but in the mid week after is more likely.
Wrinkle in Time, currently 95.5 million, is nearing it's final weeks. Not much more action expected.
Black Panther, currently 693.2 million, after an amazing hold last weekend has returned to a more typical -31.3%. It is going to home release shortly so that trend should accelerate. However it's still expected to top 700 million by the time it leaves theaters for good.
Infinity War, currently 453.1 million, had a slightly bigger than expected drop it's second weekend, but slightly higher than expected returns during the weekdays. (Maybe people that met sold out shows OW opted to go before the next weekend to avoid spoilers?) It's -55.5% second weekend drop puts it squarely between the previous 2 Avengers movies; -50.3% for the original, -59.4% for Age of Ultron. If that's a trend the 3rd weekend should fall between -50% and -46% for 57.3 to 61.9 million. Personal I'm erring on the lower 57.3 side due to the high OW. 550 million by the end of the 3rd weekend. After that it gets a little complicated due to Deadpool 2.
I'm still estimating Disney crossing the 2 billion mark with the OW of Incredibles 2. The 1.5 billion mark could be crossed as early as the end of next weekend, but in the mid week after is more likely.
Its May 14th. One month to go to double Universal's 2015 record fastest to a billion. Disney only needs a hair over 522 million to reach that magic 2 billion number. It will also be interesting to see which movie knocks off the only remaining WB movie in the top 10 worldwide.
WhatJaneSays
Well-Known Member
After the weekend actuals Disney is at 1.477 billion for the year. They should be crossing the 1.5 billion mark in a few days.
Wrinkle in Time, currently 96.8 million, got an unexpected bump over the weekend when Disney decided to expand the theaters, nearly tripling it's take from the previous weekend.
Black Panther, currently 696.3 million, at it's 13th consecutive weekend in the top 10 is starting to see more dramatic drops.
Infinity War, currently 548 million, is likely to face it's first real competition this weekend in Deadpool 2. I'd expect at least a -50% drop between losing the premium cost 3D/Imax/Dolby screens and the typical reduction in screens.
Though it's still 10 days out the Solo tracking is leveling out at a 140-145 million opening weekend.
Wrinkle in Time, currently 96.8 million, got an unexpected bump over the weekend when Disney decided to expand the theaters, nearly tripling it's take from the previous weekend.
Black Panther, currently 696.3 million, at it's 13th consecutive weekend in the top 10 is starting to see more dramatic drops.
Infinity War, currently 548 million, is likely to face it's first real competition this weekend in Deadpool 2. I'd expect at least a -50% drop between losing the premium cost 3D/Imax/Dolby screens and the typical reduction in screens.
Though it's still 10 days out the Solo tracking is leveling out at a 140-145 million opening weekend.
473,153,845 to go until 2 billion. It is looking very strong that Disney can make this by June 14th.
Another interesting thing as far as Marvel's box office goes is that Thor, Black Panther and Inifity was now total 4,011,322,100. It looks like with Ant Man that the November 2017 to October 2018 Marvel box office alone will total over 5 billion worldwide. That number alone would make a great year for any other Studio. Disney is killing it this year and just wait for the next quarters report. The previous best quarter Disney has at the Domestic Box office was 1.256 billion in 2016. They will have at least 1.4 billion this year and probably 1.5 billion or more.
Update 5/21/18. Updated Marvel numbers for the 3 movies is actually 4,015,180,729. And Disney's domestic box office is 1,527,690,246. 472,309,754
more to go until 2 billion.
Another interesting thing as far as Marvel's box office goes is that Thor, Black Panther and Inifity was now total 4,011,322,100. It looks like with Ant Man that the November 2017 to October 2018 Marvel box office alone will total over 5 billion worldwide. That number alone would make a great year for any other Studio. Disney is killing it this year and just wait for the next quarters report. The previous best quarter Disney has at the Domestic Box office was 1.256 billion in 2016. They will have at least 1.4 billion this year and probably 1.5 billion or more.
Update 5/21/18. Updated Marvel numbers for the 3 movies is actually 4,015,180,729. And Disney's domestic box office is 1,527,690,246. 472,309,754
more to go until 2 billion.
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WhatJaneSays
Well-Known Member
I've been trying to calculate out to year end to see how Disney will do. I think it's going to be fairly unlikely that they will come in sub 3 billion domestic this year. To do that all of their remaining slate would have to preform equal to or less than the previous movie in that series (or a similar movie).
Black Panther, Wrinkle in Time, and Infinity War would have to stop at their next relative milestone; 700, 97.5 and 650 million respectively.
Solo >> Rogue One's 532 million
Incredibles 2 >> Incredibles's 261 million
Ant-Man and the Wasp >> Ant-Man's 180 million
Christopher Robin >> Pete's Dragon's 76 million
Nutcracker >> Into the Woods' 126 million @60 days
Wreck-It Ralph 2 >> Wreck-It Ralph's 165 @41 days
Mary Poppins Returns >> Into the Woods' 64 million @7 days
All of that get us to less that 10 million away from the 3 billion mark.
Black Panther, Wrinkle in Time, and Infinity War would have to stop at their next relative milestone; 700, 97.5 and 650 million respectively.
Solo >> Rogue One's 532 million
Incredibles 2 >> Incredibles's 261 million
Ant-Man and the Wasp >> Ant-Man's 180 million
Christopher Robin >> Pete's Dragon's 76 million
Nutcracker >> Into the Woods' 126 million @60 days
Wreck-It Ralph 2 >> Wreck-It Ralph's 165 @41 days
Mary Poppins Returns >> Into the Woods' 64 million @7 days
All of that get us to less that 10 million away from the 3 billion mark.
Princess Leia
Well-Known Member
While Black Panther is about $2 Million from that goal, it’s slowing down considerably. It might be able to hit $700M in 2-3 weeks (I’m leaning towards 3 weeks).
Infinity War will probably hit the $650M point in 3-4 weeks (currently $54M behind it) depending on how it does against Solo and Incredibles 2.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Lol Incredibles 2 now tracking to open with 140 million. Potentially making it the biggest animated opening weekend of all time (overtaking Finding Dory) at 135. That performance will certainly help cinch 3billion.
I was so convinced next year would be Disney’s biggest ever, but this year has just been a comedy of success (and one easily shuffled under the carpet - Wrinkle in Time).