Forget fastest to 1 billion at the box office when will Disney reach 2 billion this year.

[WhatJaneSays]

A lot has happened in 3 1/2 weeks! Based on the weekend estimations Disney is at 1.97 billion domestic (and crossed the 4 billion world wide mark!) with about 26.6 million to go.

• Black Panther is just under 700 million, and with it leaving theaters shortly it might not.
• Wrinkle in Time has an unexpected push possibly getting it above the 100 million mark.
• Infinity War has topped most of the lower end predictions with 664 million.
• Solo came and went bringing in about 192 million so far.
• Incredibles 2 picked up an estimated 180 million opening weekend; making it the 8th highest opening weekend of all time, and the highest animated opening weekend out swimming Dory by 45 million.

None of the other studios have crossed 1 billion, nor are they within striking distance yet.

• Fox is at 709 million, doesn't have another release is until August
• Warner Bros. is at 643 million, with 2 recent releases, their next release is at the end of July
• Universal is at 414 million, with Jurassic World 2 coming next week
• Sony is at also at 414 million, with Sicario 2 coming the week after that
• Paramount is at 339 million, also with no releases until the end of July

 

[Ripken10]

A lot has happened in 3 1/2 weeks! Based on the weekend estimations Disney is at 1.97 billion domestic (and crossed the 4 billion world wide mark!) with about 26.6 million to go.

• Black Panther is just under 700 million, and with it leaving theaters shortly it might not.
• Wrinkle in Time has an unexpected push possibly getting it above the 100 million mark.
• Infinity War has topped most of the lower end predictions with 664 million.
• Solo came and went bringing in about 192 million so far.
• Incredibles 2 picked up an estimated 180 million opening weekend; making it the 8th highest opening weekend of all time, and the highest animated opening weekend out swimming Dory by 45 million.

None of the other studios have crossed 1 billion, nor are they within striking distance yet.

• Fox is at 709 million, doesn't have another release is until August
• Warner Bros. is at 643 million, with 2 recent releases, their next release is at the end of July
• Universal is at 414 million, with Jurassic World 2 coming next week
• Sony is at also at 414 million, with Sicario 2 coming the week after that
• Paramount is at 339 million, also with no releases until the end of July

so are you saying that Disney is going to have a hard time keeping their studio lead for the next couple weeks?

 

[seascape]

A lot has happened in 3 1/2 weeks! Based on the weekend estimations Disney is at 1.97 billion domestic (and crossed the 4 billion world wide mark!) with about 26.6 million to go.

• Black Panther is just under 700 million, and with it leaving theaters shortly it might not.
• Wrinkle in Time has an unexpected push possibly getting it above the 100 million mark.
• Infinity War has topped most of the lower end predictions with 664 million.
• Solo came and went bringing in about 192 million so far.
• Incredibles 2 picked up an estimated 180 million opening weekend; making it the 8th highest opening weekend of all time, and the highest animated opening weekend out swimming Dory by 45 million.

None of the other studios have crossed 1 billion, nor are they within striking distance yet.

• Fox is at 709 million, doesn't have another release is until August
• Warner Bros. is at 643 million, with 2 recent releases, their next release is at the end of July
• Universal is at 414 million, with Jurassic World 2 coming next week
• Sony is at also at 414 million, with Sicario 2 coming the week after that
• Paramount is at 339 million, also with no releases until the end of July

Disney should break the 2 billion figure on Monday or Tuesday. It is hard to think that breaking 2 billion in less than 6 months is disappointing but it actually is. Disney has had 2 small flops at the Boxoffice this year. Will it hurt their bottom line? Not really with the overwhelming successes but Solo and A Wrinle in time should be learning experience. Star Wars while a lovable franchise and possibly the most popular story, is not able to cover the range Marvel can. Between Infinity Wars, Black Panther, Thor and Deadpool Marvel titles have almost reached 5 billion in less than a year with Antman still coming out in July. Can Marvel alone reach 6 billion in less than a year?

Getting back to A Wrinkle in Time I would still like Disney to give it one more try but with Touchtone label putting out a version that included all the religious and moral aspects of the book. Disney needs to learn that its movies can't always be politically correct.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

Disney should break the 2 billion figure on Monday or Tuesday. It is hard to think that breaking 2 billion in less than 6 months is disappointing but it actually is. Disney has had 2 small flops at the Boxoffice this year. Will it hurt their bottom line? Not really with the overwhelming successes but Solo and A Wrinle in time should be learning experience. Star Wars while a lovable franchise and possibly the most popular story, is not able to cover the range Marvel can. Between Infinity Wars, Black Panther, Thor and Deadpool Marvel titles have almost reached 5 billion in less than a year with Antman still coming out in July. Can Marvel alone reach 6 billion in less than a year?

Getting back to A Wrinkle in Time I would still like Disney to give it one more try but with Touchtone label putting out a version that included all the religious and moral aspects of the book. Disney needs to learn that its movies can't always be politically correct.

It's kind of flooring to think that Disney's success rate this year is only 60% and they are still 1.26 BILLION ahead of their next closest competition. I think it's kind of a testament to them being more willing to take bigger and bigger chances because they know the hits they have more than compensate for the under-performers. Many times it's hard to guess what the breakout hit will be; if you told me a year ago Black Panther was likely to out do Infinity War I would have thought you were nuts. I always though Solo in May was a bad choice for many reasons, but I didn't expect it to be as a dramatic of a drop as it was.

Having been interested in box office returns for a long time it's been fascinating to watch Disney's trajectory of making/distributing nearly or over 20 movies a year, mostly under their own banner or Touchstone's, to doing half that number split between Disney, Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm. Last year they released only 8 movies; 2 of their own, 1 Nature, 2 Pixar, 2 Marvel, and a Lucasfilm; but they pulled in 2.4 billion domestic and were the top studio. Of those, 2 under-performed (Pirates 5 and Cars 3) and the DisneyNature movie shouldn't even be considered in these kind of releases.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

As expected, Disney crossed the 2 Billion mark on Monday.

(I'm trying to see if there are any charts that track that milestone to see if this is a record, but I'm mostly sure it is.. So far I've only found 1 billion and year end numbers.)

 

[seascape]

As expected, Disney crossed the 2 Billion mark on Monday.

(I'm trying to see if there are any charts that track that milestone to see if this is a record, but I'm mostly sure it is.. So far I've only found 1 billion and year end numbers.)

It is a record. The total single year North American box office is just over 3 billion in 2016, set by Dinsey on December 31, 2016. The last 8 movies Disnry put out all since November total more in less than 8 months. Marvel is kicking it. Just wait until Fox is added. Additionally it was discussed on CNBC this morning that the loser of Fox may go after Sony pictures so what is the updated Spiderman contract? Do the movie rights go back to Marvel if the Studio is sold? The comic book themepark rights are not involved in this.

 

[DisneyJayL]

It is a record. The total single year North American box office is just over 3 billion in 2016, set by Dinsey on December 31, 2016. The last 8 movies Disnry put out all since November total more in less than 8 months. Marvel is kicking it. Just wait until Fox is added. Additionally it was discussed on CNBC this morning that the loser of Fox may go after Sony pictures so what is the updated Spiderman contract? Do the movie rights go back to Marvel if the Studio is sold? The comic book themepark rights are not involved in this.

Good eye on that. Interesting indeed.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

With the finals from the weekend in and just passing the halfway point of the year Disney is now at 2.25 billion domestic and 4.5 world wide.

We're a few days from Ant-Man and the Wasp with OW tracking that has improved to the $75-90 million range, but a few are calling for a near $100 million weekend. I personally don't expect that kind of opening, but even at the low end it's a dramatic improvement over the original Ant-Man's $57 million OW. If it does manage $100 OW this will be Marvel's 6th opening in a row over that mark.

Incredibles 2 is going strong and is currently the #2 highest grossing animated movie of all time and is likely to take #1 from Finding Dory within the coming days. And it's #18 in the domestic box office and climbing steadily.

Infinfity War dropped out of the top 10 daily this past weekend but there is a likely boost with the release of Ant-Man and the Wasp, similar to what Black Panther experienced when Infinity War itself came out. It's currently #4 in both domestic and world wide all time, and is only the 4th movie in history to reach the $2 billion club.

Solo is continuing to struggle and Wrinkle in Time is nearing it's last week or two. And it seems that Black Panther is going to remain just out of striking distance of that $700 million number.

Remaining so far this year are: Christopher Robin in August, Nutcracker and the Four Realms and Wreck-It Ralph 2 in November, and finally Mary Poppins Returns at Christmas.

 

[seascape]

With the finals from the weekend in and just passing the halfway point of the year Disney is now at 2.25 billion domestic and 4.5 world wide.

We're a few days from Ant-Man and the Wasp with OW tracking that has improved to the $75-90 million range, but a few are calling for a near $100 million weekend. I personally don't expect that kind of opening, but even at the low end it's a dramatic improvement over the original Ant-Man's $57 million OW. If it does manage $100 OW this will be Marvel's 6th opening in a row over that mark.

Incredibles 2 is going strong and is currently the #2 highest grossing animated movie of all time and is likely to take #1 from Finding Dory within the coming days. And it's #18 in the domestic box office and climbing steadily.

Infinfity War dropped out of the top 10 daily this past weekend but there is a likely boost with the release of Ant-Man and the Wasp, similar to what Black Panther experienced when Infinity War itself came out. It's currently #4 in both domestic and world wide all time, and is only the 4th movie in history to reach the $2 billion club.

Solo is continuing to struggle and Wrinkle in Time is nearing it's last week or two. And it seems that Black Panther is going to remain just out of striking distance of that $700 million number.

Remaining so far this year are: Christopher Robin in August, Nutcracker and the Four Realms and Wreck-It Ralph 2 in November, and finally Mary Poppins Returns at Christmas.

It was funny watching CNBC trying to say Jurassic World is one of the big reasons for the 2nd quarter setting a box office record in the US. It clearly is a huge international success and very profitable but it came out at the end of the quarter and is way behind the last JP movie. Disney on the other had drew over 1.2 billion at the box office. So the next goal is to break their 3 billion dollar record. Can it happen with the 100 million plus still coming from Incredible 2, Ant-man and Christopher Robin by the end of September? I doubt it but it can be close.

An interesting fact is that Disney/Fox combined box office through June 30 was 3,075,948,760 and broke the 2016 record of just over 3 billion.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

It was funny watching CNBC trying to say Jurassic World is one of the big reasons for the 2nd quarter setting a box office record in the US. It clearly is a huge international success and very profitable but it came out at the end of the quarter and is way behind the last JP movie. Disney on the other had drew over 1.2 billion at the box office. So the next goal is to break their 3 billion dollar record. Can it happen with the 100 million plus still coming from Incredible 2, Ant-man and Christopher Robin by the end of September? I doubt it but it can be close.

An interesting fact is that Disney/Fox combined box office through June 30 was 3,075,948,760 and broke the 2016 record of just over 3 billion.

Jurassic World 2 is doing reasonable numbers, but it's not doing the expected business. They started off strong that first weekend but now it's tracking at 66% of the previous one. The are places putting the final take at 325-350 mil, only 50-55% domestic. It's keeping better pace internationally, but we all know the money out of that is so variable it's a guessing game.

Predicting the 3 billion tame frame is going to be hard. Ant-Man and the Wasp and Christopher Robin are such wild cards. The pros are calling Ant-Man and the Wasp's entire run in the 200 mill area, but a strong opening weekend and a boost from Infinity War could put it on a different level and suddenly it's 300+. Christopher Robin is likely to be middle of the road like the 2016 Pete's Dragon for 75, but there's always a slim chance for an unexpected emotional hit and it's doing Maleficent money at 240 million.

Unless something really unexpected happens with either, or both, of those movies I don't think we'll see 3 billion until November after Nutcracker.

 

[seascape]

Disney will pass 2.4 billion in box office receipts this weekend and sometime next week will have the second largest box office receipts for a full year with over 5.5 months left in the year.

 

[DisneyJayL]

Just crazy!

 

[WhatJaneSays]

Disney is, as of EOD 7/10, currently a little over 2.4 Billion domestic (4.8 WW) so far. We're at a bit of a "slower" time in the year. Ant-Man and the Wasp being the last large scale release likely until November, unless Christopher Robin is a surprise hit.

• Wrinkle in Time finally closed it's run at $100,478,608
• Black Panther is still trying for that 700K, but I think it's topping out near it's current $699,881,409
• Infinity War is slowing to the point that it's not likely to out pace Black Panther from it's $675,157,041
• Solo, fading fast, is likely to begin it's move to 2nd run theaters sooner that typical in hopes to boost the $211,247,396 it's taken in so far
• Incredibles 2 is still preforming like a champ taking the #1 animated spot (and is about to enter the #10 all time domestic) with $512,620,407
• Ant-Man and the Wasp is out pacing the original by about 30% bringing in $92,839,005 so far

As for the other studios:

• Universal leapfrogged to #2 with Jurassic World 2 and is at $794 million for the year. With 3 releases in a row; The First Purge, Skyscraper, and Mamma Mia 2; they are likely to be the next billion dollar studio.
• Fox had minimal movement, entirely from Deadpool 2, and has risen to $729.8 million. With no releases in the next few weeks I don't expect any movement.
• WB is in a similar state with 2 releases a month or more ago and only the Teen Titans Go! movie this month it's $731.9 million will be fairly unchanged for a bit.
• Sony is coming in from a fairly low $463.5 million but with back to back releases of Hotel Transylvania 3 and The Equalizer 2 that may change.
• Paramount, even with a Mission: Impossible movie, is still well out of striking range with a $345.3 million total so far this year.

As a quick reference: at the moment Disney has made done 3 times more in box office than it's next closes rival. This outstrips the furthest lead they've had by a fairly large margin.

 

[seascape]

Disney is, as of EOD 7/10, currently a little over 2.4 Billion domestic (4.8 WW) so far. We're at a bit of a "slower" time in the year. Ant-Man and the Wasp being the last large scale release likely until November, unless Christopher Robin is a surprise hit.

• Wrinkle in Time finally closed it's run at $100,478,608
• Black Panther is still trying for that 700K, but I think it's topping out near it's current $699,881,409
• Infinity War is slowing to the point that it's not likely to out pace Black Panther from it's $675,157,041
• Solo, fading fast, is likely to begin it's move to 2nd run theaters sooner that typical in hopes to boost the $211,247,396 it's taken in so far
• Incredibles 2 is still preforming like a champ taking the #1 animated spot (and is about to enter the #10 all time domestic) with $512,620,407
• Ant-Man and the Wasp is out pacing the original by about 30% bringing in $92,839,005 so far

As for the other studios:

• Universal leapfrogged to #2 with Jurassic World 2 and is at $794 million for the year. With 3 releases in a row; The First Purge, Skyscraper, and Mamma Mia 2; they are likely to be the next billion dollar studio.
• Fox had minimal movement, entirely from Deadpool 2, and has risen to $729.8 million. With no releases in the next few weeks I don't expect any movement.
• WB is in a similar state with 2 releases a month or more ago and only the Teen Titans Go! movie this month it's $731.9 million will be fairly unchanged for a bit.
• Sony is coming in from a fairly low $463.5 million but with back to back releases of Hotel Transylvania 3 and The Equalizer 2 that may change.
• Paramount, even with a Mission: Impossible movie, is still well out of striking range with a $345.3 million total so far this year.

As a quick reference: at the moment Disney has made done 3 times more in box office than it's next closes rival. This outstrips the furthest lead they've had by a fairly large margin.

The most interesting fact is that Antman and the Wasp is catching up to Thor. It did 10 million plus Tuesday vs 5 million plus for Thor. I would not be surprised to see Antman beak 300 million and that Incredibles might just hit 600 million. You are right as far as Black Panther not making it to 700 million. 690 million is still a great number and I am sure Disney is overjoyed with its success.

 

[seascape]

Here is another interesting thought. Disney's fiscal year end September 30. So far they have issued 9 movies and have Christopher Robin's left along with the final receipts from Antman and Incredibles 2. Anyway through Wednesday July 11 they have totaled $3,446,942,300. They only need $553,057,700 more to reach $4 billion in their fiscal year. Can they do it? I think they will fall short because they would need Incredibles 2 to break 600 million and Antman to break 300 and the Christopher Robin's to be a surprise success and reach 250 million. However none of that matters as their fiscal numbers are amazing and no one has ever come close. Those 9 movies will end up averaging over 400 million each.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

The most interesting fact is that Antman and the Wasp is catching up to Thor. It did 10 million plus Tuesday vs 5 million plus for Thor. I would not be surprised to see Antman beak 300 million and that Incredibles might just hit 600 million. You are right as far as Black Panther not making it to 700 million. 690 million is still a great number and I am sure Disney is overjoyed with its success.

Tuesdays are truly the next day to watch for trends! With most theaters settling on that day for their discounts it gives you a better idea of the traffic that day gets, along with the re-watchers.

Ant-Man 2 should overtake Thor and probably Thor 2 fairly easily, however it's closest MCU performance comparison has been Doctor Strange. With the OW on the slightly lower half of expectations and the competition it will have for it's various audiences in the next weeks I don't imagine it making it past 220-240 with moderately good legs.

The way Incredibles 2 is going, it's should get close to 560-570 just under regular momentum. But it's turned out to be the big summer camp movie this year. There might be a bit of a transition to Hotel Transylvania 3 but there is really no other competition for that market. It could coast to 600 just on that by the time this kids go back to school.

 

[Princess Leia]

I’ve got a feeling that this was Black Panther’s last week in theaters (it was down to only 52 domestic theaters), so it’s going to miss the $700 million mark by about $100K. If it’s not this week, it will be next week, but it still won’t make the $700M mark

I definitely see Ant-Man & the Wasp getting close to the $300 million mark

 

[WhatJaneSays]

Disney has crossed the 2.5 billion domestic and 5 billion world wide mark.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

With reports from the weekend there wasn't a ton of movement for Disney. Just a little over 2.55b.

• Black Panther was expanded from 28 to 154 theaters in an attempt to break 700m. It did reasonably okay pulling in a but over 25k over the weekend. The short fall is around 62k. A strong showing in it's remaining time could do it.
• Infinity War is in slow trickle mode and should rolling to second run theaters within the next week or two. But I'm not expecting much more it's current 676.9m.
• Solo has mostly run it's course and is fading faster than the earlier released Infinity War. Again I'm not expecting much more it's current 212.4m.
• Incredibles 2 is still preforming well staring it's 6th week for a total of 559.5m. Combined with it's overseas success it should be joining the WW Billion dollar club within the next two weeks or so.
• Ant-Man and the Wasp regained some ground after a higher than expected drop the previous weekend. It only dropped to #4 despite a number of wide releases. It's currently at 167.2m

Christopher Robin on 8/3 is not expected to make giant waves but should hit a 25-35m opening weekend. This is the last release for Disney until November with Nutcracker and the Four Realms and Wreck-It Ralph 2. Some time after those releases we should expect to cross the 3 Billion mark. Mary Poppins Returns was also moved up to 12/19 that should give that movie an additional boost to the box office.

 

[seascape]

With reports from the weekend there wasn't a ton of movement for Disney. Just a little over 2.55b.

• Black Panther was expanded from 28 to 154 theaters in an attempt to break 700m. It did reasonably okay pulling in a but over 25k over the weekend. The short fall is around 62k. A strong showing in it's remaining time could do it.
• Infinity War is in slow trickle mode and should rolling to second run theaters within the next week or two. But I'm not expecting much more it's current 676.9m.
• Solo has mostly run it's course and is fading faster than the earlier released Infinity War. Again I'm not expecting much more it's current 212.4m.
• Incredibles 2 is still preforming well staring it's 6th week for a total of 559.5m. Combined with it's overseas success it should be joining the WW Billion dollar club within the next two weeks or so.
• Ant-Man and the Wasp regained some ground after a higher than expected drop the previous weekend. It only dropped to #4 despite a number of wide releases. It's currently at 167.2m

Christopher Robin on 8/3 is not expected to make giant waves but should hit a 25-35m opening weekend. This is the last release for Disney until November with Nutcracker and the Four Realms and Wreck-It Ralph 2. Some time after those releases we should expect to cross the 3 Billion mark. Mary Poppins Returns was also moved up to 12/19 that should give that movie an additional boost to the box office.

I think you are underestimating WiR and Mary Poppins. Mary was moved up a week because of its reviews. I also thing Christopher Robin's will surprise at the box office. That said I am leaning towards a 2018 box office total over 3.5 billion. And I am with you on hoping BP breaks 700 but I strongly believe Incredibles 2 will break 600.