FastPass+ Most Certainly Not Coming Back As It Was

[Jrb1979]

$5,000 is for 10 guests.

Very different than $8,000 for 4.

And even if that were the case, them "selling out" tours means nothing. The number of tours is quite limited: 1,000-2,000 people per day. Certainly their new FP product would need to appeal to far more people than that.

There are no where near enough people willing to spend that money on FastPass, the program would be a massive failure.

Hell, you could get 6 FastPass+ reservations 90 days in advance for only $50 per day per person while staying club level; that program failed miserably according to multiple sources.

Real talk though, it's not going to cost that much money lol. Worst case is likely $1,000 per person for a week.

That's still too cheap. You want to limit the amount of people getting it.

 

[Disney Glimpses]

That's still too cheap. You want to limit the amount of people getting it.

You are vastly over estimating the number of families willing to pay $4,000 on top of the $6-10k they've already spent on the vacation simply to get unlimited fastpasses.

You think it's too cheap (the number I estimated is approx. $150 per day) yet the wealthiest families who stayed in club level rooms almost always opted out of a measly $50 per day for what was basically unlimited FP+ (six is plenty).

 

[matt9112]

When I went back recently it was just so much more manageable without FP+. I'd much rather have to deal with 45 minute waits in big rides instead of getting a couple short waits with FP and then crazy 2 hour + waits for big attractions the rest of the time. Limited capacity/reservations and no FP make for a better guest experience.

FP will probably be returning in some form but hopefully it is limited so it does not disrupt the wait times too much.

This is how i feel i dont mind the two hour wait for big rides but jungle cruise should be a walk on.....its absurd all it has done it make all rides have long lines and than allow you to skip a couple of those.

 

[CastAStone]

That said, only the “Unlimited” paid FP option would significantly cannibalize VIP Tour sales. The other offerings that have been rumored here (Pay per attraction and Pay per group of attractions) would likely be cheaper and more targeted towards your average guest.

I agree that’s why my point was that I think unlimited is pretty unlikely.

 

[Jrb1979]

You are vastly over estimating the number of families willing to pay $4,000 on top of the $6-10k they've already spent on the vacation simply to get unlimited fastpasses.

You think it's too cheap (the number I estimated is approx. $150 per day) yet the wealthiest families who stayed in club level rooms opted out of a measly $50 per day for what is basically unlimited FP+ (six is plenty).

I'm saying $1000 for a week is too cheap. It should be $150 at least per person per day. You want it to be walk-ons for those who pay and then it shouldn't affect standby lines too much.

 

[Disney Glimpses]

I agree that’s why my point was that I think unlimited is pretty unlikely.

Unless they don't care as much about the VIP tour business as you think. If they can make millions more in paid FastPass by sunsetting VIP tours, they will do so.

 

[Disney Glimpses]

I'm saying $1000 for a week is too cheap. It should be $150 at least per person per day. You want it to be walk-ons for those who pay and then it shouldn't affect standby lines too much.

Huh? $1,000 is literally $150 per day lol (short 50 bucks)

$150 per day per person for a family of 4 comes out to approx. $4,000 plus or minus a couple hundred for a week.

Again, you are vastly over estimating the number of families willing to spend that on top of the already exorbitant WDW vacation costs.

Even After Hours events (which are basically unlimited FastPass for a few hours for $100) are basically empty.

 

[aaronml]

On the best days, I'd say they had about 120 tours out, at about $5K per tour (not including if the guests go over their 7 hours). This is all just a guess, but the money is substantial.

So as of 2-3 years ago, I’m told that approximately half of DLR guests pay for MaxPass.

If half of all daily WDW guests were to spend at least $20 - $30 per day on paid FP, it would make a lot of money… at least as much as the VIP tours but likely much more. You are definitely right about the VIP Tours revenue being nothing to sneeze at though.

Disney is already making money from the ultra-wealthy paying to skip lines via VIP Tours and/or Club 33. The main new revenue stream with this is to get your average park guest to spend more.

 

[matt9112]

What about 2+ hour waits for all the big attractions with no FP? Because that's what will happen once capacity gets scaled back up.

I would rather wait 2 hours for space and than walk on pirates...vs 45 and 45. (Example) also you know they could just....build more rides
...instead of replacing rides with rides adding almost no capacity to parks that have had attendance sky rocket. Why is fp+ or pricing the only answer? Why cant they just build more attractions...specifically more C ticket attractions that gobble people....

 

[Jrb1979]

I would rather wait 2 hours for space and than walk on pirates...vs 45 and 45. (Example) also you know they could just....build more rides
...instead of replacing rides with rides adding almost no capacity to parks that have had attendance sky rocket. Why is fo+ or pricing the only answer? Why cant they just build more attractions...specifically more C ticket attractions that gobble people....

Cause new attractions don't have as big of ROI as people paying more to ride attractions.

 

[Disney Glimpses]

I would rather wait 2 hours for space and than walk on pirates...vs 45 and 45. (Example) also you know they could just....build more rides
...instead of replacing rides with rides adding almost no capacity to parks that have had attendance sky rocket. Why is fp+ or pricing the only answer? Why cant they just build more attractions...specifically more C ticket attractions that gobble people....

You'd rather wait 2 hours instead of 1.5 hours?

 

[CastAStone]

Unless they don't care as much about the VIP tour business as you think. If they can make millions more in paid FastPass by sunsetting VIP tours, they will do so.

If they sell a ton of the unlimited FP it won’t be worth anything, especially if you don’t schedule return times. Everyone will try to jump in FOP at 1PM when the lines are longest and it will be an hour hour wait with the paid service, and no one will buy it again. There’s a lot more to balance here in terms of maximizing revenue than how many can we sell on the first day. It has to actually function.

That’s why Universal only sells a limited number a day beyond what they give away to hotel guests. And at that rate for Disney, you’re not making enough money to make up what you killed off in VIP tours and other Plaid tours (Ultimate Day of Thrills etc)

At the end of the day, none of us have access to the numbers that we would need to talk about this intelligently, but I do think I know enough to say that Disney will not offer an unlimited fast pass in unlimited quantities, and I would be blown away if they offer one at anything close to a $300/day price point.

 

[Jrb1979]

Huh? $1,000 is literally $150 per day lol (short 50 bucks)

$150 per day per person for a family of 4 comes out to approx. $4,000 plus or minus a couple hundred.

Again, you are vastly over estimating the number of families willing to spend that on top of the already exorbitant WDW vacation costs.

Even After Hours events which are basically unlimited FastPass for a few hours for $100 are basically empty.

That's the point. You want it to be limited. I think what the issue seems to be is that many think FP if monetized should be low enough that most can have it

 

[Disney Glimpses]

If they sell a ton of the unlimited FP it won’t be worth anything, especially if you don’t schedule return times. Everyone will try to jump in FOP at 1PM when the lines are longest and it will be an hour hour wait with the paid service, and no one will buy it again. There’s a lot more to balance here in terms of maximizing revenue than how many can we sell on the first day. It has to actually function.

That’s why Universal only sells a limited number a day beyond what they give away to hotel guests. And at that rate you’re not making enough money to make up what you killed off in VIP tours.

At the end of the day, none of us have access to the numbers that we would need to talk about this intelligently, but I do think I know enough to say that Disney will not offer an unlimited fast pass it on limited quantities, and I would be blown away if they offer one at anything close to a $300/day price point.

My guess is $99 for the first day and then tiered for additional days (per person). They would make millions and you'd wait no more than 15 minutes per attraction.

 

[CastAStone]

My guess is $99 for the first day and then tiered for additional days (per person). They would make millions and you'd wait no more than 15 minutes per attraction.

My guess is $500/person/day if it happens at all.

 

[Disney Glimpses]

That's the point. You want it to be limited. I think what the issue seems to be is that many think FP if monetized should be low enough that most can have it

Way too limited. FP queues would be empty most of the day and they'd make more money with the current VIP tour business.

My guess is $500/person/day if it happens at all.

LMAO no chance. What makes more money: 1000 people at $500 or 25,000 people at $100?

Where are these people paying $500 per day for unlimited fastpass when people who had the opportunity to pay $50 for the same thing passed on it? Makes no sense at all

You're equating VIP tours to FastPass. People aren't paying $500/hour to ride Splash Mountain without waiting 40 minutes.

 

[Jrb1979]

Way too limited. FP queues would be empty most of the day and they'd make more money with the current VIP tour business.


LMAO no chance. What makes more money: 1000 people at $500 or 25,000 people at $100?

In theory it makes more money but value wise it doesn't. If that many people have it then the wait times would be long.

 

[Disney Glimpses]

In theory it makes more money but value wise it doesn't. If that many people have it then the wait times would be long.

What? Were the old FP+ wait times long? 25,000 people distributed over a 12 hour day across x number of attractions does not equal long wait times. Most of these rides are 5 minutes long. They're going to want the queues filled so you are waiting 10-15 minutes at every attraction at any moment. Which equates to several thousand sales of the product, not 500 or 1,000 rich people.

 

[aaronml]

If they sell a ton of the unlimited FP it won’t be worth anything, especially if you don’t schedule return times. Everyone will try to jump in FOP at 1PM when the lines are longest and it will be an hour hour wait with the paid service, and no one will buy it again. There’s a lot more to balance here in terms of maximizing revenue than how many can we sell on the first day. It has to actually function.

That’s why Universal only sells a limited number a day beyond what they give away to hotel guests. And at that rate for Disney, you’re not making enough money to make up what you killed off in VIP tours and other Plaid tours (Ultimate Day of Thrills etc)

At the end of the day, none of us have access to the numbers that we would need to talk about this intelligently, but I do think I know enough to say that Disney will not offer an unlimited fast pass in unlimited quantities, and I would be blown away if they offer one at anything close to a $300/day price point.

It would definitely be limited (Unlimited paid FP) in terms of inventory sold per day.

Disney doesn’t want everyone paying for unlimited FP. They want your average guest to pay for time-bound FPs on specific rides or groups of rides. The Unlimited offering would likely be targeted at a smaller population of more wealthy individuals, similar to the current VIP tours.

 

[MurphyJoe]

So as of 2-3 years ago, I’m told that approximately half of DLR guests pay for MaxPass.

If half of all daily WDW guests were to spend at least $20 - $30 per day on paid FP, it would make a lot of money… at least as much as the VIP tours but likely much more. You are definitely right about the VIP Tours revenue being nothing to sneeze at though.

Disney is already making money from the ultra-wealthy paying to skip lines via VIP Tours and/or Club 33. The main new revenue stream with this is to get your average park guest to spend more.

That's an interesting thought. Disney could charge $30 for a digital version of FP alongside premium offerings (such as a $300 unlimited). $30 looks like a steal right next to a triple digit offering even if it's something that was included before.