FastPass+ Most Certainly Not Coming Back As It Was

[ctrlaltdel]

Still, though - the thing that gets me is that it's every single park. Every day. The pleasures of avoiding EMH mornings is gone! And if you do take advantage... I sure hope people aren't expecting to do much at MK or DHS.

That's fair. I guess with the non-MK parks there isn't all that many attractions to do. So knocking out 2 early is a big dent in the day and I won't mind as much waiting in line/being a little more patient for crowds to die down in the middle of the day.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

My Disney FB group may not last much longer at this rate.

I'm an Xer.

You know…when you said “honeymoon 2000”…I immediately assumed you’re a COUGAR

…or a dude. sorry

- Grumpy co-Xer

 

[RobbinsDad]

Still, though - the thing that gets me is that it's every single park. Every day. The pleasures of avoiding EMH mornings is gone! And if you do take advantage... I sure hope people aren't expecting to do much at MK or DHS.

And even crappier... you currently can't park hop until 2:00! We're a family of rope-droppers, but the flexibility to leave after a couple hours with a hopper was awesome. Now you're stuck.

 

[el_super]

People on these threads who remember me from years ago might recall the many charts I posted to show how the cost of a WDW vacation has grown oppressively faster than people's ability to pay for it. Here's just one of them:

At this point though.... both things can't be true: Pricing can't be oppressively high AND the park is overcrowded.

So which one is the more pressing problem? I can solve for overcrowding by raising prices, and I can solve for value by implementing capacity restrictions, but the results are exactly the same: some portion of the available audience is denied entry.

In a sense, I prefer the idea of straight across the board price increases, because they are simple to implement and don't require any additional thought on my part. I'm sure some folks are more comfortable with going the route in line with the status quo: park reservations, ADRs/Fastpasses months in advance, long standby lines and reduced services/amenities all in order to keep the experience affordable.

I think it's subjectively a toss up on which route is the "better" route. I wouldn't want to price people out, but I also don't want a miserable experience for people either.

But that leads us right to where Disney is today. What we are seeing here is the compromise between the two extremes. They don't want to raise prices to $200 to $300 dollars day because you're right, they will alienate way more of their audience and that can have remarkable effects on synergies they are getting elsewhere (with Disney+ and ShopDisney). On the flip side, they can't offer Fastpass to everyone, and they can't guarantee a ride on Space Mountain for everyone because capacity just won't allow it.

So if you can't offer a better experience to everyone, is it better to offer it only to those that are willing to pay more, or just not offer it at all?

Corporate leadership should have long-term vision. Today's TWDC is cashing in on the vision of generations past.

I don't have as negative as an outlook, although I think there is tremendous pressure on Disney to stay the same rather than innovate. I actually do think they are working on a solution ... that wouldn't be a 3rd US Resort or a 5th Park at WDW. Something that would move them forward.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

You know…when you said “honeymoon 2000”…I immediately assumed you’re a COUGAR

…or a dude. sorry

- Grumpy Co-Worker

There are two things people claim to like about my group...that I call Disney out on their bull, and that I don't allow drama.

The levels of bull have gotten to the point that it's really hard to say anything good anymore.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

There are two things people claim to like about my group...that I call Disney out on their bull, and that I don't allow drama.

The levels of bull have gotten to the point that it's really hard to say anything good anymore.

That we are…we’re not the greatest generation…but we have a skepticism that isn’t standard issue anymore. And that - frankly for you fools in princess dresses in the line at Gideon’s in your late 30’s - is valuable.

we’ll save you on many things

 

[kong1802]

I wonder how much Disney factors in average guest satisfaction. Lets say a sliding scale of 1-10 for satisfaction of how long someone waits for FOP. At the 2019 level, standby is a 10, and currently at 105 minutes the satisfaction is a 7. Is Disney more thrilled with 95% of guests having a rated 7 satisfaction than 70% having a 3 (due to securing FP) and 30% having a 10? Coming back to potential paid FP, and assuming only 20% of people purchase, the numbers might look like something 20% have a 2 and 80% rating their wait satisfaction as a 8.

That's a really good question.

If 210 mins is a 10 then 105 has to be around a 5, though...

The real issue is that 20% who have a 2 most likely are spending a lot more than most of the 80% having an "8" day.

That's where the model is weighted.

My best case scenario for this whole ordeal is that only 20% buy it and headliners go back to 70 min wait standbys that move.

No more 210 standby's.

I'm skeptical.

 

[el_super]

Yes, but even adjusted for inflation and the much higher wages of today - that ticket book pricing was nothing compared to what we may be forced to pay for.
We are talking big bucks here by any measure.
Prices that will literally price families with children out, except for those with ample disposable income, and a willingness to dispose of it.

Well while the ticket book reference was really one regarding capacity management rather than pricing, I will point out that the ticket books only really gave the illusion of value. A the end of the day, people were still paying more for the same experience with the ticket book, since they were still paying for extra C/D/E Tickets. Lots of folks made it home from a day at Disneyland with unused A/B and later C still attached to the booklet.

And Disneyland priced people out from day one, even at just $3 a day.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

That we are…we’re not the greatest generation…but we have a skepticism that isn’t standard issue anymore. And that - frankly for you fools in princess dresses in the line at Gideon’s in your late 30’s - is valuable.

we’ll save you on many things

And I'm the optimist in the family...if hubby finds out that they're considering charging for FP, his head will explode. He loves WDW as much as I do, but he balks at things way more quickly than I do.

 

[dovetail65]

Well while the ticket book reference was really one regarding capacity management rather than pricing, I will point out that the ticket books only really gave the illusion of value. A the end of the day, people were still paying more for the same experience with the ticket book, since they were still paying for extra C/D/E Tickets. Lots of folks made it home from a day at Disneyland with unused A/B and later C still attached to the booklet.

And Disneyland priced people out from day one, even at just $3 a day.

My dad had to buy 5 or ten booklet sometime in a day! Why? Because me and my brother wanted the E tickets and dad could not buy just an E ticket. The book that we received when we arrived wasn't nearly the cost . So for me the cost today with free 3 a day FP park just is not that expensive, for a 10 day pass what is it like 46 a day? It is the hotels that seem to cost so much more now.

Now under any newer paid FP potentially costs can get out of hand quickly.

 

[el_super]

I do think there is some hope that backlash/anticipated backlash could get resort guests something. Even just one free pass/day would probably be lapped up and a genuine reason for those really into the parks to continue staying on site (even if it is still an erosion overall).

What's the math in this? Isn't getting an Extra Magic Hour already basically getting one additional free ride a day?

Funny how every other finite capacity thing manages that. Hotels, events, etc.

Remember when Hamilton tickets got up to $1200... for a three hour show? And they still had to implement a lottery system.

 

[dovetail65]

Nah…I don’t think most at the poly will care.

they’ll pay.

except maybe the majority of dvc…they might be surly.

I gotta ask: do you honestly think people won’t pay, this won’t become “the norm”, and it won’t be “integrate or be left out”?

We don’t have an announcement…but if there is one…be sure they know that what I just said will be true. They wouldn’t take a flyer on this.

People will pay. We heard the same thing when they charged for parking, then I tried to book a room at 900 a night and there was a 10 month wait.

 

[flynnibus]

Remember when Hamilton tickets got up to $1200... for a three hour show? And they still had to implement a lottery system.

Hamilton has ~6500 tickets a week. Disney has more than that just in value hotel rooms each day, let alone attendance

 

[Parker in NYC]

That we are…we’re not the greatest generation…but we have a skepticism that isn’t standard issue anymore. And that - frankly for you fools in princess dresses in the line at Gideon’s in your late 30’s - is valuable.

we’ll save you on many things

And if not princesses... every day can't be dapper day.

 

[jpinkc]

IMO the anger is draining from the blogosphere and the message boards now with everybody's doom and gloom scenarios, then Disney can announce whatever they want later after listening to all the free response data. They can give a free fastpass to each guest or to on-site guests, and that would be enough for people to not fight too hard. It doesn't have to be the same system as Paris to make a tremendous amount of money. I'm still of the opinion it won't all be strictly monetized, and thus won't come with much blowback.

Disney doesnt listen!!! Thats been proven in the last 20 years over, and over and over and over.................

 

[jpinkc]

While I think there are other considerations why not building a 5th park in Orlando was prudent (guest LOS / labor issues), I think the previous poster who mentioned that Disney should build another US theme park resort is onto something. A third resort would be an alternative way to release the pressure building up in Central Florida. That brings me back to the point I made yesterday, Burbank lacks faith that the US theme park market is a growth opportunity. If Disney's America got built, where would we be?

Or even I dare say Wescot? That project could have eased WDW burdens. But it wont happen (new 5th Gate) and if it did at the Disney speed of building it would take 20 years to build

 

[kong1802]

People will pay. We heard the same thing when they charged for parking, then I tried to book a room at 900 a night and there was a 10 month wait.

When AP's went to like $600 people were saying they weren't going to pay anymore.

Then at $750 they were still a "deal".

Then at $850, still making the case.

Then at $1200, "If I could just get them on a payment plan"....

People will definitely pay.

 

[el_super]

Hamilton has ~6500 tickets a week. Disney has more than that just in value hotel rooms each day, let alone attendance

Supply and Demand ... still alive and well.

You know that does lead to an interesting hypothetical: If the parks are meeting demand, but just really busy, is there really such a thing as overcrowding? I mean I think it's miserable and I'm pretty tired of paying money to wait in long lines for the same attractions over and over again but .... people still do it. Maybe there really isn't any problem to be solved here. Let the market figure it out.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yeah but look what he says right there in the article - "If you are a glutton and try everything". What percentage of things, particularly e-tickets, is it possible to do in one day at the current $105-$125 price point? (don't forget, $105 is the starting price which changes by day of the week, meaning it is not the regular price and does not cover the spectrum of days on most trips)

And if you only get six "experiences" in, which is Disney's metric for a successful day, how much do they rebate that admission?

The idea you have fairly easy access to use everything behind a tickets gate you pay $800 a week to enter is “gluttonous” is as insane as last years politics. More…actually

Apple pay... that's not money is it? What's another $80 for us to get on Peter Pan's Flight. It's just this once.

(20 minutes later). What's another $80 for us to get on Seven Dwarfs Mine Train? Just this once. Ooh, and we can get a special photopass photo! $10.99? Sure, why not. THEY'LL SEND A PRINT HOME TO US FRAMED and SIGNED BY DOPEY? $199 plus shipping? Hey, it's a once in a 18 MONTH trip! Sure, I'll accept.

FTFY

A lot of people will pay. But more then you think.. WAY more then you think either will not pay OR give up something else like a more expensive meal plan, or cut off a few days on their stay, or downgrade their hotel, or cut back elsewhere. Disney will make money for once avenue and lose it for another.

There is this perception that people in Deluxe resorts just freely spend on everything and do not care what Disney charges. Not only is is wrong, to a lot of people who stay there its offensive. Its not out of my league to stay at a Deluxe once or twice, but I spend a lot of time at the parks minus a resort/pool/rest day in between a week or 9 day trip. And to stay there means I'd have to eliminate other things. Not everyone who stays at the Deluxe resorts stay there all the time. They stay at different resorts on property and do not just splurge on every new upcharge Disney throws their way. Caving in on some things within reason and means is one thing. You are talking about people who have large families and to charge for going ON rides quickly will price them out.

So you think Disney Might be taking a huge financial flyer on this reported plan? (If it happens)

is that what they do/their pattern? Or do they have a pretty good idea first?

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Hamilton has ~6500 tickets a week. Disney has more than that just in value hotel rooms each day, let alone attendance

10,552 a week. But your point still stands.