FastPass+ Most Certainly Not Coming Back As It Was

[UNCgolf]

The stats in the study are really good. Your point about the two types of FP is valid though. Someone did bring up that some of the rides in the study never had legacy FP, so for those rides you are comparing FP+ to no FP. The other issue is that with increasing capacity attendance happening with FP+ implementation it is hard to tease out what caused the increase in wait times.

That's my point -- there are so many variables at play (like attendance increases) that those numbers aren't very useful, especially today. There's far too much noise.

It's not that the numbers they pulled are wrong. I'm not saying that. It's just that they don't really tell you anything beyond the fact that the change from legacy FP to FP+ didn't have a big effect on wait times on holidays. It's a specific conclusion for a specific set of circumstances that can't be applied accurately to a larger set because of all those variables.

 

[acup313]

That's my point -- there are so many variables at play (like attendance increases) that those numbers aren't very useful, especially today. There's far too much noise.

It's not that the numbers they pulled are wrong. I'm not saying that. It's just that they don't really tell you anything beyond the fact that the change from legacy FP to FP+ didn't have a big effect on wait times on holidays. It's a specific conclusion for a specific set of circumstances that can't be applied accurately to a larger set because of all those variables.

Yeah I guess based on the data available and the variables at play it is probably impossible to make a conclusion in either direction.

 

[rreading]

Was your June trip after they brought the ride back to full capacity? I'm pretty sure they were skipping every other Doombuggie previously.

They were filling every doombuggie and the queue was flowing right through the stretching room.

 

[UNCgolf]

Yeah I guess based on the data available and the variables at play it is probably impossible to make a conclusion in either direction.

Which is all I'm saying! I'm not arguing that it absolutely did or didn't make wait times longer. I'm just saying we don't have enough evidence to know and I wish we had more.

I'm also pointing out that people shouldn't be looking at that study posted earlier and thinking it proved anything across the board, because a cursory knowledge of statistics is enough to tell you it's only applicable to a specific, narrow set of circumstances and not something that can be extrapolated out into any kind of definitive statement.

 

[Hcalvert]

Was your June trip after they brought the ride back to full capacity? I'm pretty sure they were skipping every other Doombuggie previously.

I visited this month (left on the 18th) and they were filling all ride vehicles.

 

[acup313]

Which is all I'm saying! I'm not arguing that it absolutely did or didn't make wait times longer. I'm just saying we don't have enough evidence to know and I wish we had more.

Yeah I was trying to find some older wait time data, but couldn't find anything. I assume I could build a more thorough model if I could find the data.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

I sure hope they bring it back. I'm perfectly fine grabbing 3 rides with a short wait then goofing off the rest of the day. If I can grab another FP or catch a short SB. Bonus.

 

[UNCgolf]

Yeah I was trying to find some older wait time data, but couldn't find anything. I assume I could build a more thorough model if I could find the data.

Yeah. We'd need data from when the parks were standby only, but with attendance so much higher now, I'm still not sure how useful it would be. They'd all look longer now regardless.

 

[acup313]

Yeah. We'd need data from when the parks were standby only, but with attendance so much higher now, I'm still not sure how useful it would be.

With enough data we should be able to control for attendance as well. We’d need wait times, attendance, and ride capacities. Probably other stuff as well.

 

[UNCgolf]

With enough data we should be able to control for attendance as well. We’d need wait times, attendance, and ride capacities. Probably other stuff as well.

Stuff that only Disney would have internally, most likely -- and they may not even have it, especially going back 20+ years.

 

[pdude81]

Today there were 2 fp kiosks uncovered in tomorrowland. Scanned my band and nothing much happened. They are covered everywhere else so I'm assuming it's for a test of some kind.

 

[CastAStone]

Yeah I was trying to find some older wait time data, but couldn't find anything. I assume I could build a more thorough model if I could find the data.

There is no database of pre FP wait time data. It doesn’t exist. You’d have to rely on modeling using mathematical principles.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Today there were 2 fp kiosks uncovered in tomorrowland. Scanned my band and nothing much happened. They are covered everywhere else so I'm assuming it's for a test of some kind.

Yes, and sorry to say, you failed it!!

 

[mikejs78]

Which is all I'm saying! I'm not arguing that it absolutely did or didn't make wait times longer. I'm just saying we don't have enough evidence to know and I wish we had more.

I'm also pointing out that people shouldn't be looking at that study posted earlier and thinking it proved anything across the board, because a cursory knowledge of statistics is enough to tell you it's only applicable to a specific, narrow set of circumstances and not something that can be extrapolated out into any kind of definitive statement.

So to get another data point, I looked at another attraction that got FP fairly recently right before the pandemic - Millenium Falcon. Falcon got FP+ added to it on February 19, 2020. I looked at the Crowd level 10 days before and immediately after FP was added using Touring Plans data, as they were all listed as crowd level 10 days at DHS (except 2/21, which I took out of the equation). So I measured 2/15-2/18, and then 2/19, 2/20, 2/22, and 2/23. Granted the full sample size for MF on FP+ is very small due to Covid shutting everything down, but it does present an interesting case study. All dates had MF at 100% capacity (no downtime to skew the results).

The standby line increased by an average of 11.5 minutes between the before and after days - right in line with what we saw with Pooh, HM, etc. back in 2014. So a small increase overall in standby wait times, but not substantial.

Other things can also be factors, such as other attractions being down, the fact that CL10 has a very wide range in TouringPlans' model, etc... (For example, I also picked 4 CL10 days in January and came up with an average of 116 minutes, which means if I had done that comparison, FP+ would have resulted in a 2.5 minute shorter standby line). This is also a *very* small sample size, so it should be taken with a grain of salt. It would have been better if we had several months of FP+ data so we could weed out any initial operational challenges, etc. that may have occured with the start of FP+ at Falcon.

What I think this shows though is that there is some data to say that while FP+ *may* result in longer lines (and no data exists to show that it actually results in significantly longer lines that anyone has been able to show me), it doesn't result in *appreciably* longer lines.

Pre-FP Avg daily wait time:
2/15: 99
2/16: 112
2/17: 97
2/18: 100
Avg: 102 minutes

Post-FP Avg Daily wait time:
2/19: 116
2/20: 120
2/22: 106
2/23: 112
Avg: 113.5 minutes

 

[CastAStone]

The basic principle to model is simple; here is a very distilled example:

4 people walk up to a ride with a posted 30 minute wait. Two of them wouldn’t wait more than 20 minutes for that particular ride. The other two would gladly wait an hour.

How many people get in line if FP doesn’t exist?
How many people get in line if one person from each group has a FP?

The answers are 2 and 3. You’ll note that 3 is more than 2.

Model out large numbers of people with lots a variance in their wait willingness and you can start to build something useful.

What are the impacts of a FP system?

• The average wait time a person who rides the ride waits overall goes down
• The average time a person in the standby queue waits goes up
• Fewer people are in the queue at any given moment. A portion of the people not in line for this ride will go to other rides, increasing their wait times. This has knock on wait time effects I have not modeled
• Overall, guests are being less efficiently matched with the attractions they most want to do, as tolerances for wait times vary based on interest, but most guests will wait 5 minutes for most rides.

You can read all about it in my book Fastpass: It’s a Thing That Exists That I Express No Opinion On Except That It Annoys Me To See People Making Demonstrably False Claims On Both Sides.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

So maybe I'm missing something here, but could it be argued that the only way FP or FP+ could increase wait times (assuming that attendance is the same each day, which we know it isn't) would be if people were riding more rides than they did without FP or FP+? Since longer lines mean that more people are on the line (because the time it takes for 1,000 people to board a ride doesn't change just because, for example, 750 of them are using FP+) and if the argument is that wait times are up all over the parks due to FP+, then it seems like that should only be possible if the average guest is riding more rides per day than they were before FP+. If that's the case, then why is that a bad thing? Sure, your wait for Pirates might have gone up 10-15 minutes, but you saved more than that using your 3 FP+ selections.

 

[threvester]

I can tell you from being here this past week that guests want and expect it..i cant tell you how many families i talked to that were going to let them know about it and were not going to come back if its just standby..number 2 gripe was no fireworks

 

[UNCgolf]

So to get another data point, I looked at another attraction that got FP fairly recently right before the pandemic - Millenium Falcon. Falcon got FP+ added to it on February 19, 2020. I looked at the Crowd level 10 days before and immediately after FP was added using Touring Plans data, as they were all listed as crowd level 10 days at DHS (except 2/21, which I took out of the equation). So I measured 2/15-2/18, and then 2/19, 2/20, 2/22, and 2/23. Granted the full sample size for MF on FP+ is very small due to Covid shutting everything down, but it does present an interesting case study. All dates had MF at 100% capacity (no downtime to skew the results).

The standby line increased by an average of 11.5 minutes between the before and after days - right in line with what we saw with Pooh, HM, etc. back in 2014. So a small increase overall in standby wait times, but not substantial.

Other things can also be factors, such as other attractions being down, the fact that CL10 has a very wide range in TouringPlans' model, etc... (For example, I also picked 4 CL10 days in January and came up with an average of 116 minutes, which means if I had done that comparison, FP+ would have resulted in a 2.5 minute shorter standby line). This is also a *very* small sample size, so it should be taken with a grain of salt. It would have been better if we had several months of FP+ data so we could weed out any initial operational challenges, etc. that may have occured with the start of FP+ at Falcon.

What I think this shows though is that there is some data to say that while FP+ *may* result in longer lines (and no data exists to show that it actually results in significantly longer lines that anyone has been able to show me), it doesn't result in *appreciably* longer lines.

Pre-FP Avg daily wait time:
2/15: 99
2/16: 112
2/17: 97
2/18: 100
Avg: 102 minutes

Post-FP Avg Daily wait time:
2/19: 116
2/20: 120
2/22: 106
2/23: 112
Avg: 113.5 minutes

That makes sense intuitively, at least to me. There's already a soft cap on how long most people are willing to wait for most attractions, so the lines aren't going to just get infinitely longer as other things change.

I do think there's a chance things would be different if attendance levels weren't so consistently high now, due to the prebooked nature of FP+ resulting in people grabbing them for attractions that really shouldn't need one just to make sure they have 3 booked. But attendance levels are consistently high now, so that's essentially irrelevant.

 

[nickys]

Today there were 2 fp kiosks uncovered in tomorrowland. Scanned my band and nothing much happened. They are covered everywhere else so I'm assuming it's for a test of some kind.

So you didn’t notice the free FPs for the rest of the day and for your entire party they loaded onto your MDE account?

 

[UNCgolf]

You can read all about it in my book Fastpass: It’s a Thing That Exists That I Express No Opinion On Except That It Annoys Me To See People Making Demonstrably False Claims On Both Sides.

The second half of this sentence describes how I feel about almost everything.