Elemental (Pixar - June 2023)

[TsWade2]

I don't think Wish will make more than The Little Mermaid.

Speak for yourself!

 

[Disney Analyst]

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Thank goodness for small favors.

Universal will probably lost money on this one, even though it only had a $70 Million production budget (one third of Elemental's budget).

If we guesstimate a $100 mill marketing budget Ruby needs to make $240 million to break even, Elemental needs to make $500 million to break even.

Elemental is forecast for $300-350 million for a $150 mill loss, Ruby is forecast for $70-75 million for a $165 mill loss… hard time to be a movie studio.

 

[Tha Realest]

If we guesstimate a $100 mill marketing budget Ruby needs to make $240 million to break even, Elemental needs to make $500 million to break even.

Elemental is forecast for $300-350 million for a $150 mill loss, Ruby is forecast for $70-75 million for a $165 mill loss… hard time to be a movie studio.

In what universe does Ruby have a $100M marketing budget? No indication of that at all. More likely less than half of that was spent on marketing

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

In what universe does Ruby have a $100M marketing budget? No indication of that at all. More likely less than half of that was spent on marketing

Just trying to make a fair comparison so I used the same marketing budget on both since we don’t know. Can’t guesstimate $50 on one and $100 on the other or it‘ll be ignored as cherry picking. I’d rather overestimate than underestimate.

 

[Tha Realest]

Just trying to make a fair comparison so I used the same marketing budget on both since we don’t know. Can’t guesstimate $50 on one and $100 on the other or it‘ll be ignored as cherry picking. I’d rather overestimate than underestimate.

I think the consensus marketing budget is 1/2 the production cost.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I don't think Wish will make more than The Little Mermaid.

Wait for Snow White next year, that’ll likely make all of this years flops look like box office blockbusters.

 

[Tha Realest]

Wait for Snow White next year, that’ll likely make all of this years flops look like box office blockbusters.

Despite all the hype as the Next Big Thing, Rachel Zegler has picked some real turkeys to star in

 

[TsWade2]

Give Disney some time, okay? Let’s just wait and see if Disney can release the second trailer of Wish this month or next month. Let’s wait instead predicting it’ll do bad at the box office.

 

[Disney Analyst]

 

[MisterPenguin]

Ruby's budget is $70M. Breakeven is $210.

 

[Disney Irish]

Ruby's budget is $70M. Breakeven is $210.

At this point it'll be lucky to break $75M.

 

[mightynine]

Finally got a chance to see this one today and man, did trailers/marketing not help. A really good film, not Pixar’s best but certainly not it’s worst.

 

[BrianLo]

You know, this may be one of those weird movies that finds its semblance of success post theatrically. I have no allusions that it started out way too low, but the holds indicate it might find actually find an audience eventually.

That doesn't help its financial performance, but people may actually watch it on D+ since clearly there is some nice word of mouth that the marketing never managed to get across.

All of which is to say this movie deserved to do better.

 

[TP2000]

All of which is to say this movie deserved to do better.

They should have played up the Guess Who's Coming To Dinner? angle more. And also Catherine Freaking O'Hara.

The kids running the marketing department in Burbank are idiots.

 

[TP2000]

You’re assuming the marketing people have ever heard of either of those.

True. That's sad and funny at the same time. And yet... true.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

You know, this may be one of those weird movies that finds its semblance of success post theatrically. I have no allusions that it started out way too low, but the holds indicate it might find actually find an audience eventually.

That doesn't help its financial performance, but people may actually watch it on D+ since clearly there is some nice word of mouth that the marketing never managed to get across.

All of which is to say this movie deserved to do better.

I'm increasingly coming down on the side of Elemental being a brand rebuilding exercise for Pixar, albeit an expensive one.

After the dumping of films on streaming over the past few years and noise around Turning Red and Lightyear (as well as Strange World), this film at least seems to be liked by those who are seeing it and the holds (particularly internationally) are suggesting that response is encouraging people to make the trip to the cinema rather than just waiting for it on Disney+. Hopefully that leads to a better response for Elio.

To me, it seemed an open question whether families could still be coaxed to spend the significant sums involved taking the family to see Disney-branded entertainment when presumably part of the logic of paying the monthly Disney+ fee is that it's cheaper than a trip to the movies. I also feel Little Mermaid is a positive sign in that regard for Disney as it shows the audience is still out there to bring in hundreds of millions at the box office.

Whether all of that supports $200million+ budget films is another question. Again, though, I agree that Disney+ revenues are not irrelevant to this equation. The service isn't turning a profit yet, but it is bringing in around $2billion in revenue every quarter for Disney in part based on the promise Disney will regularly have new films like TLM and Elemental coming onto the service. I don't know how you calculate that into the revenue that each of these films ultimately brought in to the company, but it's certainly not nothing.

 

[Ghost93]

You know, this may be one of those weird movies that finds its semblance of success post theatrically. I have no allusions that it started out way too low, but the holds indicate it might find actually find an audience eventually.

That doesn't help its financial performance, but people may actually watch it on D+ since clearly there is some nice word of mouth that the marketing never managed to get across.

All of which is to say this movie deserved to do better.

It may also give the movie a second life in merchandising.

Remember, The Princess and the Frog was also a financial disappointment. However, the Disney company has still made a lot of money off of Tiana merch due to the movie finding an audience on home video.

 

[Ghost93]

They should have played up the Guess Who's Coming To Dinner? angle more. And also Catherine Freaking O'Hara.

The kids running the marketing department in Burbank are idiots.

Now that you mention it, the movie WAS very much "Guess Who's Coming to Dinner" while the marketing made it seem more "Romeo and Juliet."

 

[BrianLo]

Whether all of that supports $200million+ budget films is another question. Again, though, I agree that Disney+ revenues are not irrelevant to this equation. The service isn't turning a profit yet, but it is bringing in around $2billion in revenue every quarter for Disney in part based on the promise Disney will regularly have new films like TLM and Elemental coming onto the service. I don't know how you calculate that into the revenue that each of these films ultimately brought in to the company, but it's certainly not nothing.

Apparently they have been paying about 50-200 million towards theatrical films. 55 on the low end to Strange World, Lightyear 95, Thor was 160, Wakanda 170, Doctor Strange 180, and Avatar WoW 200 on the high end.

They seem to be paying somewhat, what they think the films are worth, if they had not been sent to D+. Roughly.

We don't have receipts but I think they footed the entirety of the bills for the direct to stream Pixar movies. Probably why loses re-escalated with Chapek despite the service 'making' more and more money the entire time.

So I'd imagine with strong audience reception, they may allot on the 100 million end to Elementals.