I remember seeing a lot of LGBT people on Twitter, when they saw Strange World flop opening weekend, complain that they didn't see the movie because Disney hadn't marketed enough. But once they became aware of the movie after it flopped opening weekend they didn't say "oh, I better support it in theaters!" Instead most said "this is great representation! I can't wait to check it out on Disney Plus!"
I don't know what it would take for the "wait for Disney Plus" mindset to go away for a non-franchise movie. All of the Disney movies that have been profitable the past year have had pre-existing fanbases, like Avatar and Marvel.