DVC Website

[correcaminos]

I didn’t think of the multi room conversion might mean fewer guests.

Some weird DVC hater at WL tried to state that it brought in more guests. We laid out how it was wrong and they were surprised and claimed there definitely had to be more people. I suggested it was because it was booked more solidly than before - that didn't end well

I have given up on the one contract. Seller won't negotiate even though they said they would and wanted me to bid higger without a counter offer. Um not how this works....

 

[LuvtheGoof]

Some weird DVC hater at WL tried to state that it brought in more guests. We laid out how it was wrong and they were surprised and claimed there definitely had to be more people. I suggested it was because it was booked more solidly than before - that didn't end well

I have given up on the one contract. Seller won't negotiate even though they said they would and wanted me to bid higger without a counter offer. Um not how this works....

I guess people don’t understand that if you convert 3 resort rooms into a single 2 bedroom, you go from 12 possible to 9 at most. Same with the 1 bedroom made out of 2 resort rooms going from 8 to 5.

 

[CastAStone]

I suggested it was because it was booked more solidly than before

At WL this is very likely the case!

 

[CastAStone]

I have given up on the one contract. Seller won't negotiate even though they said they would and wanted me to bid higger without a counter offer. Um not how this works....

hope they enjoy being one of the FOURTEEN HUNDRED DVC contracts currently for sale for another several months.

I think the prices people got last spring/summer when there were just 200 contracts for sale across the entire market detached reality from expectations.

 

[correcaminos]

hope they enjoy being one of the FOURTEEN HUNDRED DVC contracts currently for sale for another several months.

I think the prices people got last spring/summer when there were just 200 contracts for sale across the entire market detached reality from expectations.

Yup! I think the agent was a bit frustrated but understood why I was done with them. I have no actual need for points either. I'm very much in the black and just thought a third home would be nice. Especially one we like staying that is getting harder to book. I cannot tell if the AKL bookings are an anomaly or what but they've been less available than ususal.

I'm happy to keep looking or spend on something else tbh

I guess people don’t understand that if you convert 3 resort rooms into a single 2 bedroom, you go from 12 possible to 9 at most. Same with the 1 bedroom made out of 2 resort rooms going from 8 to 5.

They really didn't get that and we did have to spell it out to them. I get that many love their specific resort and defend it but I didn't quite get the DVC hate.

At WL this is very likely the case!

Yeah that implication was what they really hated. It was funny to watch them argue. But there is a reason why Disney converts rooms to DVC. It's usually because bookings are low.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I imagine the less availability is still a result of the points backlog that started over 2 year ago

it’s not because great things are going on in the parks and restaurants

 

[correcaminos]

I imagine the less availability is still a result of the points backlog that started over 2 year ago

I hope so. We love AKL. I don't mind buying in if I need though.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Some weird DVC hater at WL tried to state that it brought in more guests. We laid out how it was wrong and they were surprised and claimed there definitely had to be more people. I suggested it was because it was booked more solidly than before - that didn't end well

I have given up on the one contract. Seller won't negotiate even though they said they would and wanted me to bid higger without a counter offer. Um not how this works....

DVC haters are angry at the rack prices they paid to tell you their thoughts

it’s always been that way…but this is the worst imbalance ever

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I hope so. We love AKL. I don't mind buying in if I need though.

You don’t need to “buy in”…the points transfer

 

[i<3riviera]

hope they enjoy being one of the FOURTEEN HUNDRED DVC contracts currently for sale for another several months.

I think the prices people got last spring/summer when there were just 200 contracts for sale across the entire market detached reality from expectations.

yes, prices have essentially been flat since July 2021 which also coincides with when the number of active listings began to increase dramatically

what is happening is that more contracts are being bought back via the ROFR process which is eroding the base prices for resale contracts; so for example: if you report on summary metrics for resale prices, your data will show that the average resale price has indeed increased because all those big juicy contracts (>100 points) that were passing ROFR no longer are so you average resale price looks like it's increasing

but at the end of the day, what you paid for a 100 point contract at most resorts is July 2021 is about the same as what people paid for a 100 point contract at the same resort in Dec 2021; there are exceptions but they are in both directions; OKW has slightly increased in value and BCV + PVB has slightly decreased in value, again focusing on a specific contract size; including inflation and you can make a case that the value of DVC contracts in the resale market that people are willing to pay has decreased in the last ~6 months

at the same time, a good number of sellers with listings, especially the >30 day listings, have alternative ways to use points so that they can continue to list high and not run the risk of losing the value of expiring points; they really have no incentive to reduce prices; these are typically the stripped contracts which continue to be stripped of more points as their use year's approach

 

[correcaminos]

You don’t need to “buy in”…the points transfer

That's work though and meaning I need to think ahead

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’m glad the resell prices are flat…because people acted stupid for 10 years prior

 

[i<3riviera]

Really enjoying reading along with your discussion.

me too, this has been a great thread to read!

here's some data to help with the discussion ...

membership

• 250,669 members as of 31 Dec 2021; overwhelming majority direct or direct + resale
• 264 average points per owner (excluding RVA because I don't have great numbers on that)
• 272 average points per owner at OKW
• I find medians more useful but since there are very few super owners and the upper limit is 4,000 / 8,000 points; the average ≈ median

point charts

• OKW, SSR, AKV Kidani, BLT, and VGF do not have dedicated ds
• OKW, SSR, AKV Jambo, AKV Kidani, BLT, and VGF do not have dedicated 1b
• AKV uses all the same point chart so the fact that AKV Jambo has dedicated ds protects AKV Kidani
• VGF2 resort studios are in a different category than VGF deluxe studios so they could independently change (e.g. SSR 2b vs. treehouses)
• in theory, any resort without dedicated ds and 1b can have their point charts adjusted with more flexibility on DVCM's part; in reality if it's out-of-line with other resorts, it's unlikely to go over well

point chart changes (high level)

1. original 5 season, weekends >> weekdays
2. 5 season weekends reduced, weekdays increased
3. 2020 increases in lock-off premium (reversed)*
4. 2021 7 season point chart, some balancing of high demand seasons
5. 2022 some balancing of high demand seasons, separation of before / after easter period, inflated point charts (easter effect reversed)
6. 2023 some balancing of high demand seasons, before / after easter aligned again
7. SSR specific: treehouses changed to more than 2b, addition of preferred
8. AKV + BLT specific: changes for room view re-categorization (minor)

* this one was a bit unusual because ds and 1b went up while 2b went down; some thought a ds increase with 1b decrease would be appropriate but this was not that

bungalows

• declared points per bungalow 24,112 (20 bungalows)
• booking points per bungalow 53,601*
• declared points per ds 9,861 (same for ds standard and ds preferred / lake)
• booking points per dss 7,928*
• booking points per dsp 9,409*
• booking points per ds 8,224* (weighted average, 288 dss + 72 dsp)
• bungalows make up 12% of all declared points but 27% of all booking points
• ds make up 88% of all declared points but 73% of all booking points
• points aren't pushed from bungalows to ds, they are pushed from ds to bungalows

cabins

• declared points per cabin 24,279 (26 cabins)
• booking points per cabin 41,754*
• cabins make up 19% of all declared points but 33% of all booking points
• non-cabins make up 81% of all declared points but 67% of all booking points
• points aren't pushed from cabins to other villas, they are pushed from other villas to cabins

* 2023 full year, not significantly different from prior years

 

[CaptainAmerica]

AKV uses all the same point chart so the fact that AKV Jambo has dedicated ds protects AKV Kidani

Is it the case that AKV MUST use the same points chart for Jambo and Kidani?

 

[i<3riviera]

Is it the case that AKV MUST use the same points chart for Jambo and Kidani?

good question; it’s not a requirement, they could add it as another view or category like they did when they created the SSR preferred / standard split

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

me too, this has been a great thread to read!

here's some data to help with the discussion ...

membership

• 250,669 members as of 31 Dec 2021; overwhelming majority direct or direct + resale
• 264 average points per owner (excluding RVA because I don't have great numbers on that)
• 272 average points per owner at OKW
• I find medians more useful but since there are very few super owners and the upper limit is 4,000 / 8,000 points; the average ≈ median

point charts

• OKW, SSR, AKV Kidani, BLT, and VGF do not have dedicated ds
• OKW, SSR, AKV Jambo, AKV Kidani, BLT, and VGF do not have dedicated 1b
• AKV uses all the same point chart so the fact that AKV Jambo has dedicated ds protects AKV Kidani
• VGF2 resort studios are in a different category than VGF deluxe studios so they could independently change (e.g. SSR 2b vs. treehouses)
• in theory, any resort without dedicated ds and 1b can have their point charts adjusted with more flexibility on DVCM's part; in reality if it's out-of-line with other resorts, it's unlikely to go over well

point chart changes (high level)

1. original 5 season, weekends >> weekdays
2. 5 season weekends reduced, weekdays increased
3. 2020 increases in lock-off premium (reversed)*
4. 2021 7 season point chart, some balancing of high demand seasons
5. 2022 some balancing of high demand seasons, separation of before / after easter period, inflated point charts (easter effect reversed)
6. 2023 some balancing of high demand seasons, before / after easter aligned again
7. SSR specific: treehouses changed to more than 2b, addition of preferred
8. AKV + BLT specific: changes for room view re-categorization (minor)

* this one was a bit unusual because ds and 1b went up while 2b went down; some thought a ds increase with 1b decrease would be appropriate but this was not that

bungalows

• declared points per bungalow 24,112 (20 bungalows)
• booking points per bungalow 53,601*
• declared points per ds 9,861 (same for ds standard and ds preferred / lake)
• booking points per dss 7,928*
• booking points per dsp 9,409*
• booking points per ds 8,224* (weighted average, 288 dss + 72 dsp)
• bungalows make up 12% of all declared points but 27% of all booking points
• ds make up 88% of all declared points but 73% of all booking points
• points aren't pushed from bungalows to ds, they are pushed from ds to bungalows

cabins

• declared points per cabin 24,279 (26 cabins)
• booking points per cabin 41,754*
• cabins make up 19% of all declared points but 33% of all booking points
• non-cabins make up 81% of all declared points but 67% of all booking points
• points aren't pushed from cabins to other villas, they are pushed from other villas to cabins

* 2023 full year, not significantly different from prior years

Where’d ya get those fancy numbers, fella?

 

[correcaminos]

Where’d ya get those fancy numbers, fella?

If you scout the internet you can find so much out there. You should see some spreadsheets I have on room types and such. It's insane what crazies keep track of.

 

[correcaminos]

good question; it’s not a requirement, they could add it as another view or category like they did when they created the SSR preferred / standard split

But the resorts are combined for total points in all the records I see so if they move one they'd adjust for another. I think...

 

[i<3riviera]

Where’d ya get those fancy numbers, fella?

three main places …

1. public offering statements
2. condo declarations and drawings
3. point charts

like @helenabear said, lots of data out there; as an example @Micah008 tabulated room types for all resorts (not sure if he is active on here)

once you have all the puzzles pieces, it’s just maths to get all the fancy numbers

 

[correcaminos]

three main places …

1. public offering statements
2. condo declarations and drawings
3. point charts

like @helenabear said, lots of data out there; as an example @Micah008 tabulated room types for all resorts (not sure if he is active on here)

once you have all the puzzles pieces, it’s just maths to get all the fancy numbers

I created my own since I haven't seen it since before murphy beds went in and RR numbers were confirmed. I plan to triple-check after VGF updates come in and we 100% know what goes on with those like turret rooms.

I have it in excel form too that I'm glad to share (but cannot upload). I welcome any and all edits as well. I have a generic room break down of points and total inventory of rooms I update regularly.