Basic economic theory will apply. For a moment, let's pretend that this decision backfires on DVC. Resale prices fall in the short term and--as you describe--more people turn to resale.
Greater demand for resales will ultimately drive prices back up.
Unless sellers panic, I really don't think prices will fall much at all. Over the past 10 days I've read quite a few doom-and-gloom scenarios. Some people have gone so far as to imply that DVC resales will soon be like other timeshares where you can buy one eBay for $250 plus closing costs.
But take a step back for a moment. Walt Disney World and Disneyland are premier vacation destinations. The market for DVC may be limited at $110+ per point, but even people who regularly stay at the Value resorts would be lined up around the block to buy resales at $10-20 per point. And ultimately the market will keep prices far higher than that.
The bottom is simply not going to fall out of DVC because people WANT to visit the resorts. People are willing to pay far more than $250 plus closing costs for those ownership rights.
Will this decision backfire on DVC? Personally I doubt it. Using the Internet as a barometer has proven to be flawed in the past. In recent years websites and forums have created a tempest in a teapot over things like valet parking and point reallocations. If you just read the web discussions about such moves, you'd think members were ready to lead a revolt.
Nevertheless, member satisfaction surveys have continued to show exceptional results for DVC. Market Metrix is the only independent evaluator I'm aware of, and they have DVC ranked above 90% in terms of member satisfaction. DVC is the leader in the timeshare industry.
A few random members may claim to be losing faith in DVC. They may lose some add-on sales to those individuals. But I still suspect this policy change will result in a positive net gain in direct sales. It may not be a dramatic increase, but even 2-3% adds to the bottom line without really costing DVC anything.
