Do you put any faith in crowd calendars?

[tmitch]

supposedly a 3/10 for magic kingdom today, and I'm in an 85 min wait for Peter Pan? 35 for jungle cruise too. I'll personally never count on those things again, even for an estimate

 

[tmitch]

Relax, the comment was suggesting that the pictures were taken at a bottleneck of the park, and can be a little misleading. I get it, the parks were abnormally busy.

I would relax but you said my pics were misleading, not a little. They were using people movers. I had 90 min waits for Peter Pan, buzz light year, 7 dwarf mine coaster. 45 min waits for tomorrow land speedway, barnstormer, and dumbo. If I could remember anything else, I would post it. I also have other people on this forum verifying what I'm saying.

 

[tmitch]

I am not implying crowds are something people are imagining. I am implying that the crowd levels are relative. It may be busier in September that the years past, but it is also busier in December in the years past, hence, a lower crowd level for September.

Let me make this simple so you understand, if a box can hold 100 people and in December 100 people go in the box, on a scale of 1-10 it would be marked a 10. If 70 people go in box in September, it would be a 7, regardless of last September or december

 

[JourneysEnd]

I'm wishing I hadn't looked at crowd calendars. Can only go when the grand kid is out of school, don't have a lot of choice. We're going to stay longer and take longer breaks during the day. All I know to do.

 

[MickeyMomV]

Let me make this simple so you understand, if a box can hold 100 people and in December 100 people go in the box, on a scale of 1-10 it would be marked a 10. If 70 people go in box in September, it would be a 7, regardless of last September or december

I get both sides of this discussion. The problem I see is that the crowd calculators are WAY behind. There may have been a time 5 to 10 years ago where the "box" would have been filled with 10 people and it would have been marked as a 1 and 60 people would have been marked at a 6. Advance 5-10 years and with the increased crowd levels the same box has 60 people in it and it is now should be a 2. 80 people in the box should be a 5. Days with 10-50 people no longer exist. I think this is what NelsonRD was trying to get at with it all being relative. Hitting MK right at open and not expecting a long wait at bag check is unrealistic (I do agree 40 minutes is a bit excessive).

Living in Michigan we are no way local but it seems like we are down there twice a year or at least 3 times every 2 years and over the last 15 years crowds have been getting heavier and heavier. That is why we look at the calendar choose a time that looks good and go. Lately its the run Disney calendar so things are ever busier but hey you do what you have to do.

 

[PlaneCrazy1978]

I get both sides of this discussion. The problem I see is that the crowd calculators are WAY behind. There may have been a time 5 to 10 years ago where the "box" would have been filled with 10 people and it would have been marked as a 1 and 60 people would have been marked at a 6. Advance 5-10 years and with the increased crowd levels the same box has 60 people in it and it is now should be a 2. 80 people in the box should be a 5. Days with 10-50 people no longer exist. I think this is what NelsonRD was trying to get at with it all being relative. Hitting MK right at open and not expecting a long wait at bag check is unrealistic (I do agree 40 minutes is a bit excessive).

Living in Michigan we are no way local but it seems like we are down there twice a year or at least 3 times every 2 years and over the last 15 years crowds have been getting heavier and heavier. That is why we look at the calendar choose a time that looks good and go. Lately its the run Disney calendar so things are ever busier but hey you do what you have to do.

True. Crowds have increased year to year but I go often and every year in Sept. This year is abnormal cause there is a drastic increase from last year and I'm wondering why. And by drastic I mean a 6 or 7. It shouldn't jump that much in one year. I'm waiting 30 minutes in a Nemo line right now when the crowd calendar says 2. Last year we walked on. I think everyone who has ever looked at a crowd calendar would be a little shocked

 

[tmitch]

I get both sides of this discussion. The problem I see is that the crowd calculators are WAY behind. There may have been a time 5 to 10 years ago where the "box" would have been filled with 10 people and it would have been marked as a 1 and 60 people would have been marked at a 6. Advance 5-10 years and with the increased crowd levels the same box has 60 people in it and it is now should be a 2. 80 people in the box should be a 5. Days with 10-50 people no longer exist. I think this is what NelsonRD was trying to get at with it all being relative. Hitting MK right at open and not expecting a long wait at bag check is unrealistic (I do agree 40 minutes is a bit excessive).

Living in Michigan we are no way local but it seems like we are down there twice a year or at least 3 times every 2 years and over the last 15 years crowds have been getting heavier and heavier. That is why we look at the calendar choose a time that looks good and go. Lately its the run Disney calendar so things are ever busier but hey you do what you have to do.

I can appreciate your rationale, but I would think the numbers (ratings wise) would stay the same seeing as Disney has said they have a max capacity number. Even with a little fluctuating on that max number, the ratings on crowds should be consistent

 

[Figmentation]

I can appreciate your rationale, but I would think the numbers (ratings wise) would stay the same seeing as Disney has said they have a max capacity number. Even with a little fluctuating on that max number, the ratings on crowds should be consistent

Too bad there is no such thing as a consistent crowd. Especially at Disney.
People go when they go, and most of them on a whim.
People can only estimate on previous experiences, and they use previous experiences to make the calendar.
The crowd calendars that people are complaining about show that last year, at this time, the crowd was a 2 or 3, the same for the year before and probably the year before.
It isn't abnormal to have a day jump from a 2 to a 7 because of day placement.
That day could of been in the middle of the week last time, then in the future it could end up on a weekend.

I like crowd calendars but I know they are inconsistent. They always will be.

 

[MickeyMomV]

I can appreciate your rationale, but I would think the numbers (ratings wise) would stay the same seeing as Disney has said they have a max capacity number. Even with a little fluctuating on that max number, the ratings on crowds should be consistent

I completely agree that they should keep things constant but if they do that I'm afraid that every day would end up being between a 7 and 10 regardless of the time of year.

Maybe, just maybe the AK and HS expansions will help disburse the crowds and the old rating system will again have true meaning. We only have to wait 3-4 years to find out.

 

[NelsonRD]

Let me make this simple so you understand, if a box can hold 100 people and in December 100 people go in the box, on a scale of 1-10 it would be marked a 10. If 70 people go in box in September, it would be a 7, regardless of last September or december

No, that is a linear scale, not relative. The crowd calendars are relative, the spike yesterday was an anomaly. That is exactly how it does not work.

It could still be 100 people in September and be a 7 if the days around it are greater.

Besides, why aren't you enjoying yourself at Disney, instead of getting on here to argue with me on how busy it is?

 

[tmitch]

No, that is a linear scale, not relative. The crowd calendars are relative, the spike yesterday was an anomaly. That is exactly how it does not work.

It could still be 100 people in September and be a 7 if the days around it are greater.

Besides, why aren't you enjoying yourself at Disney, instead of getting on here to argue with me on how busy it is?

A linear scale would work if your max capacity crowd number, which is a known number, doesn't change. I'm arguing with you because you said I was misleading people, which I'm not

 

[NelsonRD]

A linear scale would work if your max capacity crowd number, which is a known number, doesn't change. I'm arguing with you because you said I was misleading people, which I'm not

I am not arguing the park was not busier than expected, I just suggested that the photo was taken at a bottleneck area of the park, and even on the weakest days can show congestion. The point would have been clearer if it was a photo of the extended queues, or packed Liberty Square. Second, people are mislead by the crowd calendars thinking a 1, 2, or 3 days are 'not busy'. It is a relative scale, and what was a 8 or a 9 years ago, may be a 2 or 3 today, and people are still struggling to understand that point.

 

[tmitch]

I am not arguing the park was not busier than expected, I just suggested that the photo was taken at a bottleneck area of the park, and even on the weakest days can show congestion. The point would have been clearer if it was a photo of the extended queues, or packed Liberty Square. Second, people are mislead by the crowd calendars thinking a 1, 2, or 3 days are 'not busy'. It is a relative scale, and what was a 8 or a 9 years ago, may be a 2 or 3 today, and people are still struggling to understand that point.

I would almost believe the sincerity of that except I posted those pictures along with my statement that it was 40 mins to an hour for security bag check, and you said that I was misleading people and that people were actually trying to get on the mono rail, which was a separate line altogether.

 

[NelsonRD]

I would almost believe the sincerity of that except I posted those pictures along with my statement that it was 40 mins to an hour for security bag check, and you said that I was misleading people and that people were actually trying to get on the mono rail, which was a separate line altogether.

No, I said that area was shared with people waiting for transportation. I just looked at the pics again. I may have misinterpreted the pic looking towards Bay Lake as people heading towards the ferry boats. If that is the line for the bag check, i'll retract, but stand by my statements of how to interpret the crowd calendars, and a picture inside the park might have make the point clearer.

 

[PlaneCrazy1978]

I completely agree that they should keep things constant but if they do that I'm afraid that every day would end up being between a 7 and 10 regardless of the time of year.

Maybe, just maybe the AK and HS expansions will help disburse the crowds and the old rating system will again have true meaning. We only have to wait 3-4 years to find out.

I hope the expansions will help!! I'm just glad I made all my ressies and fast pass selections so early cause we'd be waiting forever for everything, including meals!!

 

[tmitch]

No, I said that area was shared with people waiting for transportation. I just looked at the pics again. I may have misinterpreted the pic looking towards Bay Lake as people heading towards the ferry boats. If that is the line for the bag check, i'll retract, but stand by my statements of how to interpret the crowd calendars, and a picture inside the park might have make the point clearer.

The touring plans pic which showed an actual crowd number as 7, along with mine and everyone else's wait time reports, along with my several pics of incredibly long line for security check made my point crystal clear. If you misinterpreted the pics, you should have asked for more clarity before making your erroneous statement about me misleading people

 

[MickeyMomV]

I hope the expansions will help!! I'm just glad I made all my ressies and fast pass selections so early cause we'd be waiting forever for everything, including meals!!

Agreed. Especially on meals. When we were there in Feb I can't tell you how many people I seen turned away from TS restaurants because they were not accepting walk ups. When we decided on a quick trip in Oct the first thing I did was FP+ and Dining reservations. FP+ was no issue, we got all the rides we wanted. TS reservations on the other hand took looking everyday over the course of a couple of weeks to get good reservations, not the exact ones we wanted but good ones (flexibility pays off).

 

[NelsonRD]

The touring plans pic which showed an actual crowd number as 7, along with mine and everyone else's wait time reports, along with my several pics of incredibly long line for security check made my point crystal clear. If you misinterpreted the pics, you should have asked for more clarity before making your erroneous statement about me misleading people

I am just saying if I was going to try to demonstrate how busy the parks were, I would not use a picture of the entrance as my example. Every morning during rope drop, the entrance has crowds that are spilling over - regardless of the crowd levels. This area is a bottleneck, and people are arriving in bulk from the monorail, and ferry boats, which can quickly congest the entrance, even on light days. That is the point I am making, that I am not going to assume the park is grossly busy based on the entrance - although I understand yesterday this was not the case and the park was actually very busy.

 

[Lexi]

. Guess we'll find out with how the rest of our week here is. Also had a couple of cast members talk about how unusually busy it was today so they all seemed surprised by the crowds too. So you need to stop implying the crowds are something people are imagining.

I skipped a couple of pages of this thread so someone might have mentioned this already, but its a Jewish Holiday (yesterday and today) which I'm sure I had a lot to do with public schools being off, so I would guess the crowds will decrease tomorrow.There is another holiday next week as well (9/22-9/23) that might cause the numbers to go up again.

 

[PlaneCrazy1978]

I skipped a couple of pages of this thread so someone might have mentioned this already, but its a Jewish Holiday (yesterday and today) which I'm sure I had a lot to do with public schools being off, so I would guess the crowds will decrease tomorrow.There is another holiday next week as well (9/22-9/23) that might cause the numbers to go up again.

I hope that was it. Looks like the MNSSHP was sold out last night - and it was the first one of the year!!

 

[Kosmo1986]

I am a semi-local passholder who takes 4 long weekend trips a year and i usually go 4-5 single days a year as well. While I still look at the crowd calenders , I don't put much stock in them.

I think a lot of people use these calendars to try and plan their trips AND it is always when big groups from various countries go which makes it seem even more crowded. WDW also has a lot of deals for Florida residents around the slow seasons for cheaper hotels rooms.

Anywho.... Unless its the busy season -summer (June- August), Spring break, Thanksgiving, or Christmas. The the crowds are pretty much the same all year.