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Do you put any faith in crowd calendars?
- Thread starter tmitch
- Start date
Horizons '83
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- No
Can we all just agree that you should always expect a 10 out of 10? Then you won't be disappointed any time of year you go? This is the #1 Amusement park in the WORLD, there is no such thing as a "lite day" at Magic Kingdom. Lighter, yes, but this is the current state and everyone should know this going into their trip.
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Takeitforgranite
Active Member
I joined TP at the beginning of the year because I am a numbers guy who wants to outsmart all the people I know who go without doing any research at all. We went in mid Jan and late May. Not because it supposed to be the best times to go, but it was the best time WE could go. I found TP to be pretty fairly reliable on our trips, but I like to pull up wait times all the time just to see how things are playing out, and they are way off sometimes.
Fact is, they use actual data, but data comes from things that have already happened. It can't predict the future. Also, the average wait times for a 1, compared to a 10, isn't that much of a gap. We are talking like a 15-20 minute range from 1 to 10 on some rides, not 60 minutes. More and more people are going during the "slow" times, and I have come to the conclusion that there really isn't a great time to go anymore. Any fraction of time you might save in slightly shorter lines is offset by earlier closures.
I can say for sure that it's better to go during a time when you know it's busy and be mentally prepared than to sacrifice and go during and off peak time expecting light crowds and be caught off guard.
Fact is, they use actual data, but data comes from things that have already happened. It can't predict the future. Also, the average wait times for a 1, compared to a 10, isn't that much of a gap. We are talking like a 15-20 minute range from 1 to 10 on some rides, not 60 minutes. More and more people are going during the "slow" times, and I have come to the conclusion that there really isn't a great time to go anymore. Any fraction of time you might save in slightly shorter lines is offset by earlier closures.
I can say for sure that it's better to go during a time when you know it's busy and be mentally prepared than to sacrifice and go during and off peak time expecting light crowds and be caught off guard.
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Dads 2 Boys
Well-Known Member
I think the crowd calendars are based on outdated information IMO.
Almost all of the information is based on the pre-fastpass plus data. Since FP+ has been in full effect, the wait time history has been very, very different.
Almost all of the information is based on the pre-fastpass plus data. Since FP+ has been in full effect, the wait time history has been very, very different.
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kimberlymautz
Well-Known Member
I've actually started doing almost the opposite of what the crowd calendar suggests because I know people will be checking them and whatever park has EMH is the one I avoid for the day. Yeah, it's nice being able to go in early or stay late, but the parks get so much more crowded on those days.
Ive also heard that September is really buy this year because so many schools have multiple three day weekends. Not sure how accurate that is, but I know the school district here had 3 three day weekends scheduled this month.
Ive also heard that September is really buy this year because so many schools have multiple three day weekends. Not sure how accurate that is, but I know the school district here had 3 three day weekends scheduled this month.
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sxeensweet
Love a little Disney every day!! ;)
The first MNSSHP and first MVMCP's usually always sell out. That's pretty much the norm every year for both parties.
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sxeensweet
Love a little Disney every day!! ;)
I have never seen the EMH day parks much more crowded than a regular day. We have gone many days where they had morning EMH's (don't get there first thing though) and We use every evening EMH day in the 3 parks that have them and love going those days. I frankly think in our experiences there is less people on EMH days due to people thinking they need to avoid them on the EMH days. lol So we actually plan to be in parks on EMH days or any day that works for us and have never had a problem with crowds. We go when we want to whichever park that works best for us each and every day with no using of crowd calendars or avoiding EMH's.
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PlaneCrazy1978
Active Member
The first MNSSHP and first MVMCP's usually always sell out. That's pretty much the norm every year for both parties.
You sure about that?
They are never sold out the past 5 years when I have been there. Usually only the last date in September sells out.
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MickeyKimmy
Active Member
I think this is correct about the Jewish Holiday. There were pretty heavy crowds on our trip Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday but they decreased significantly the rest of our week to what I would consider more normal September crowds. I do think the crowd calendars (particularly Touring Plans) are generally pretty reliable as far as general crowd levels (never really used them for deciding which park to go to just best times of year to go). However, since they are based on past years sometimes there are things like this that come up and do not always occur at the same time every year that are not taken into account.
The first MNSSHP and first MVMCP's usually always sell out. That's pretty much the norm every year for both parties.
I don't believe this is correct. September MNSSHP do not always sell out. In fact, I don't think I have ever been to one in September that was sold out. Maybe they do in October, don't usually go then.
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sxeensweet
Love a little Disney every day!! ;)
Not the rest of them but the first and last few as I mentioned of any party often sells out OR comes close to selling out. **SORRY I DID NOT ADD THAT STATEMENT ABOUT COMING CLOSE TO SELLING OUT. **
I know I have been to the first MVMCP as recent as last year and it was indeed sold out. I have also heard of the MNSSHP's selling out for the first party OR close to selling out let me correct that. Lol Yes the rest of Sept usually does not but the first its not totally uncommon for this to happen or almost happen. For example some people want first dibs on all special merchandise that some special items do sell out the first party or the first few parties sells out. Also so just like the excitement of going to the 1st party of the year.
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sxeensweet
Love a little Disney every day!! ;)
You sure about that?
I never said they all do just said usually and not uncommon, BUT to add even if they don't they are usually close to selling out the first. See my response above this one. They have had I think 2 more parties now since the first and those have not sold out so if people were talking about how it seems busier in the parks this Sept. then the others would have sold out too and they have not yet for any this month besides the first so far.
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PlaneCrazy1978
Active Member
I never said they all do just said usually and not uncommon, BUT to add even if they don't they are usually close to selling out the first. See my response above this one. They have had I think 2 more parties now since the first and those have not sold out so if people were talking about how it seems busier in the parks this Sept. then the others would have sold out too and they have not yet for any this month besides the first so far.
OK. Well like @MickeyKimmy said, this year was strange because of the Jewish holiday. So I'll keep going on the first or second one every year and let everyone else go to others. Hopefully it'll be empty like usual
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PlaneCrazy1978
Active Member
Really? What are some of the waits like? We were there last week and it died down later in the week. Hope it's the same for you!!
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sxeensweet
Love a little Disney every day!! ;)
I think as years go on maybe the sell out at the 1st may happen more than in the past. You will be golden if it's the second party of the year maybe as that one I have never seen sell out yet.,,,I repeat yet! Haha.OK. Well like @MickeyKimmy said, this year was strange because of the Jewish holiday. So I'll keep going on the first or second one every year and let everyone else go to others. Hopefully it'll be empty like usual
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sxeensweet
Love a little Disney every day!! ;)
They usually have the free dining every Sept at least the past 5-10 years and as others noted it's never usually that busy in the parks in Sept. So it is a bit of an odity regardless of free dining.
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Mchugs7
Active Member
Well that's good to hear. I'll keep my fingers crossed! Right now the waits are their usual long (80ish) minutes for the big stuff like Splash and 7DMT but the more shocking waits are for things that are usually walk ons. People Mover hit 20 minutes at one point today. We also saw that at EPCOT, Figment had a 20 minute wait today. It's crazy, but especially crazy considering this is a "quieter time" of year.
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