MoxHair
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Lamborghini Countach
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Disney's Q3 FY15 Earnings Results
- Thread starter wdwmagic
- Start date
Iger attempted to take his frustration out by crashing through the Poly Bungalows since thy did not yield a quick enough margin boost from the insane price point they set. Luckily, the stale quaaludes took effect before he could do any damage.
Actually, there was a Ferrari in the movie as well.Lamborghini Countach
Perhaps, @PhotoDave219 was referring to the fact that the Ferrari was able to enjoy Margo Robbies butt sitting in its seat but it didnt go any further than that, what a tease, and indeed...poor Ferrari
PhotoDave219
Well-Known Member
I'm a fan of that movie… And I do enjoy the nursery scene
I
They could just film Margo Robbie reading names out of the phone book and I would be satisfied, but that nursery scene....oh boy... high noon on the sun dial for shizzle
rael ramone
Well-Known Member
As I posted in the 'spirit' thread.
The mouse was 'priced to perfection'. (Companies don't have that big of a P/E unless it is expected to grow big). Meaning that it had to beat expectations. The Streets expectations. It's possible to beat your own guidance and still get slammed if the Street expected more.
But I think (and most of the press seems to think this) that this is mostly about ESPN/Cord cutting. And it's taking down all other media companies with it - it's already the ESPN correction. A few more points it's the ESPN Bear (soon to be sold next to Duffy with a frowny face with a technical chart on his tummy showing the stock going down).
Mouse Trap
Well-Known Member
I swear I heard a pretty talking head on CNBC say the same thing basically word for word, minus the terrible bear joke.
POLY LOVER
Well-Known Member
this is the most dangerous time for Disney, If they decide to over react to the market and scale back, layoff, and water down the expansion. I feel this will be a slide downward and the bad PR will place a cloud over their heads for years to come. The number miss is not that bad but its all abbout their reaction to it. Lets say they are at a cross roads is Iger the guy to leed them through it or not ? its all about quality not quick fixes that don't last. Sure they could layoff a bunch of people and scale down product, it will be good for one quarter but then what?
Mouse Trap
Well-Known Member
That's not going to happen. They aren't going to totally overhaul their business because of a short term market reaction. Honestly if people can't stomach this kind of move you shouldn't be invested in the stock market. Apple is also down 15% this month and they aren't printing doomsday plans. Everyone needs to chill...
I realize if you haven't been invested in Disney for more than 3-4 years you've never seen this sort of drop before. Your precious stock is fine and has just returned to earth.
Horizons '83
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- No
Yep.
Be prepared for another recession soon. Everything is artificially inflated at the moment.
POLY LOVER
Well-Known Member
No Panic here I live in the market everyday, I just see how companys get pushed by the market to make quick fixes. The market is quick to ride a stock up and equally as quick to label a company and ride it down, thats how billions are made and lost each day. as you know the market is nothing more than gambling.
ford91exploder
Resident Curmudgeon
And yet some investment advisors (buy side) are looking at a $90-$95 target which I think is more realistic. The current share price is way too high relative to the fundamentals of the business.
ford91exploder
Resident Curmudgeon
Yup 'Wall St is the world's largest casino which is why I invest in stuff I know about, Bought DIS at $40 sold most of it at $114
ford91exploder
Resident Curmudgeon
Lots more share price losses on DIS to come, The share price has been based on buybacks and the invincibility of ESPN now with studies coming out that less than half of households would PAY for ESPN and that neatly coincides with about 1/3 of the people I know are rabid sports fans. Yes ESPN has college games but once again only the rabid fans in the family actually watch.
We actually had an interesting dynamic on our family christmas trip GV at BLT, DBIL wanted to have ESPN on in the living room the rest of us basically said we have no INTEREST in sports and there are 5 other TV's in this suite take the sports ELSEWHERE. This is the dynamic which DIS is fighting soon they will not be able to strong arm carriers into the Disney package ie ESPN, A&E networks and Disney Channels for each sub, I suspect most of us want the A&E packages but ESPN and Disney channels well Sports Nuts and Families with small children.
ford91exploder
Resident Curmudgeon
And people said that I was crazy for having this view just a few weeks ago and that DIS and ESPN would go up forever...
ford91exploder
Resident Curmudgeon
What you describe is exactly what Iger's team has done all along cut and increase prices in the P&R business, If SW does NOT break 2B in December watch out as the cuts fly.
Prime example instead of moving ESPN to an on demand internet platform NOW! Iger's team decided to make huge budget cuts and fire ESPN on-camera talent (ie one of the prime reasons other than live games people watch ESPN) which of course will exacerbate the loss of subscribers problem. Now we all know Disney has not seen stellar success in the internet space however the talent to succeed in the internet space IS out there IF Disney had the wisdom to hire some of them and actually LISTEN to them.
Iger's team is not good at creative solutions they look to financial engineering to solve their issues, To prop up the share price they have a share buyback program which absorbs much of DIS free cash flow, Instead of creating new products and experiences DIS resorts to quality cuts.
I've been expecting a train wreck and it looks like the conditions are finally coming into alignment for that train wreck to occur, Two kinds of companies are susceptible to train wrecks
1 - Companies whose products/services are 'ahead of their time' they enter with a big splash and then crash and burn
2 - Companies who rely on financial engineering these are generally mature companies who lost the desire to compete in the marketplace
and pour all their creativity into the finance side of the business while cutting back quality of products and services. The train wreck for these companies usually occurs as part of changes in the regulatory environment and/or changes in foreign markets.
rael ramone
Well-Known Member
Which part? The 'priced to perfection' part? (I heard Cramer say that). Or the ESPN Correction/ESPN Bear part? (that's all me, whoever said that must be following me here
. Does this mean 'Mouse Arrest Band', "Cockerell Fries', and 'Igerville' will become part of the CNBC vocabulary ?Anyway the most important thing about $DIS is - It isn't a value stock (certainly not w/ a 23 P/E). And definitely not a income stock (not with a measly 1.09% yield). It's a growth stock. Growth stocks are expected to grow. Growth stocks w/ large PE/s are expected to grow big. If you want value, you sniff around the oil patch to see who will survive low oil. If you want income/safety you pick up AT&T/Verizon or some big utility.
The Mouse is NOT a Consumer Staple company. People need Colgates toothpaste, Proctor & Gambles shampoo, Kimberly Clarks toilet paper (and for those who are addicted - Altrias cancer sticks). They don't need 3D movies, expensive vacations/cruises, and it sounds more & more they don't need the Mouses cable content at the price the Mouse wants for it.
It's a Consumer Discretionary company - a category by definition offering a potential larger return then a Staple but also having a higher risk profile. Not only do people not need what you sell when things are good, they'll use it even less if a recession hits. (An article I'm reading on Seeking Alpha right now the author says the next recession will accelerate cord cutting). .
http://seekingalpha.com/article/341...pe5d:1as9bjc:d5cc9fb4400b68490a3c85bea01f7765
On CNBC right now (10:21 AM):
The cable industry is a business based on getting you to buy something you. do. not. want. (Just said by NY Times's Jim Stewart on CNBC). Everyone who isn't watching ESPN is subsidizing those who do (again JS). The minute they sell the 'cost cutting' story, they aren't growth stocks anymore. (this guys on fire) (In fairness he said that everyone will have to take a haircut - both the media as well as the sports themselves)..
ps - the ESPN/Duffy Bear joke is awesome
rael ramone
Well-Known Member
Yes, the precious buybacks. Either they will be buying in full force once the SEC regulations allow, or they are waiting for a better price themselves if they believe the bottom isn't in yet
.The new stuff in the swamps will still happen, but cuts will happen (either there or elsewhere).
As far as growth is concerned we can't forget about China. Not only about the possible slowdown there, but the Shanghai opening fiasco shows that the CCP is fully intent on putting a 'governor' on the Mouses IP growth in the Mainland.
Mouse Trap
Well-Known Member
Which part? The 'priced to perfection' part? (I heard Cramer say that). Or the ESPN Correction/ESPN Bear part? (that's all me, whoever said that must be following me here
Anyway the most important thing about $DIS is - It isn't a value stock (certainly not w/ a 23 P/E). And definitely not a income stock (not with a measly 1.09% yield). It's a growth stock. Growth stocks are expected to grow. Growth stocks w/ large PE/s are expected to grow big. If you want value, you sniff around the oil patch to see who will survive low oil. If you want income/safety you pick up AT&T/Verizon or some big utility.
The Mouse is NOT a Consumer Staple company. People need Colgates toothpaste, Proctor & Gambles shampoo, Kimberly Clarks toilet paper (and for those who are addicted - Altrias cancer sticks). They don't need 3D movies, expensive vacations/cruises, and it sounds more & more they don't need the Mouses cable content at the price the Mouse wants for it.
It's a Consumer Discretionary company - a category by definition offering a potential larger return then a Staple but also having a higher risk profile. Not only do people not need what you sell when things are good, they'll use it even less if a recession hits. (An article I'm reading on Seeking Alpha right now the author says the next recession will accelerate cord cutting). .
http://seekingalpha.com/article/341...pe5d:1as9bjc:d5cc9fb4400b68490a3c85bea01f7765
On CNBC right now (10:21 AM):
The cable industry is a business based on getting you to buy something you. do. not. want. (Just said by NY Times's Jim Stewart on CNBC). Everyone who isn't watching ESPN is subsidizing those who do (again JS). The minute they sell the 'cost cutting' story, they aren't growth stocks anymore. (this guys on fire) (In fairness he said that everyone will have to take a haircut - both the media as well as the sports themselves)..
ps - the ESPN/Duffy Bear joke is awesome
I agree with most of what you said with a few points. Disney is and will remain a great growth stock for at least the next 2-3 years in my opinion. A record quarter almost entirely across the board is something we take too lightly.
Secondly, and more importantly is that Disney has EVERYTHING to gain from the shift to digital from cable. Content creators will become extra wealthy during this transition because of the three things everyone wants from this shift...
1. Better pricing
2. Better content
3. They want it immediately
ESPN rolled into a streaming package (Apple pls) would mean snip snip snip for a few million cable subscribers. Everyone in the industry knows how precious of a commodity ESPN is. A full Disney package...ESPN...ABC Family...Disney Channel....in a streaming package would be huge. That alone covers almost every family dynamic. Disney has lots to gain from this transition and if they can package their content right and find a good suitor (APPLE!!!11!!111!) there will be tons of money to be made.
rael ramone
Well-Known Member
I go back to Jim Stewart from NYT's comments on CNBC. The current model is not long for this earth. There is only so much desirable live content. More companies want a share of distributing it (including the content providers themselves). If the shift results in more $$$ in the pockets of the consumer, then that is coming from somewhere. Whoever has the most leverage gets to keep the most of what they have now. While this might be nuclear for MLB (the VAST majority of spending $$$ comes from local cable deals), I strongly suspect football will not only dig its heals in, but might want another significant raise. MNF may become a loss leader for the Mouse.
And right now if you live in a major metro area and have rabbit ears, you get 2-3 NFL sunday games (including the sunday night game - the only one that has a flex option later in the season to improve the matchup), plus several college games (including the SEC game of the week on CBS) gratis. Trying to push these games behind a pay wall may not sit well with lawmakers (since many are playing in taxpayer funded stadiums).
Bundles in of themselves may not go away - unless Congress enacts a la carte which they have threatened to do. Once that happens nobody who doesn't watch ESPN will pay for it - and if the result raises the prices for the rest many may decide to watch at the local watering hole instead - esp. if they force a year subscription and you only care about football.