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Disney's Next Acquisition Speculation / Discussion
- Thread starter Darkprime
- Start date
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Well the article was more posed as a question, that they then went on to answer in the affirmative.
Should Disney Buy AMC? | The Motley Fool
Disney's new focus on content and distribution and AMC's financial woes could make for the right deal at the right time.
www.fool.com
However they go on to say in the article that Paramount, Universal, even Netflix and Amazon all make sense as well in terms of buying AMC if given the opportunity.
So in the end they aren't suggesting that Disney really should buy AMC. Just that it makes business sense to do so and provides reasons why it makes sense if the opportunity arises.
Slpy3270
Well-Known Member
No one's buying AMC period.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
They’re unlikely to make it to the end of the year
brodie999
Active Member
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Cross-marketing promotions between companies happen all the time. It does not mean that a merger is in the works. Marvel Games was involved in at least part of the development of the game. So it would make sense for its parent company Disney to promote the game. In addition Marvel Games released 2 days ago a prequel novel to the game called, Marvel's Spider-Man: Miles Morales - Wings of Fury.
So no a merger is not likely in the works. Sorry.
Slpy3270
Well-Known Member
Rich Spleenfield at it again.
www.hollywoodreporter.com
He says it's unlikely to happen but the fact that he is merely suggesting it shows how far he's fallen.
WarnerMedia and NBCUniversal Should Be Merged, Analyst Argues
"In today’s media world, we believe focused scale is the only way to be both large enough and nimble enough to embrace technological change and carve a meaningful space in a tech platform-dominated landscape," says Richard Greenfield.
www.hollywoodreporter.com
He says it's unlikely to happen but the fact that he is merely suggesting it shows how far he's fallen.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Once again doesn't mean much, especially since he himself said it was unlikely to happen. Plus it has nothing to do with Disney or its own acquisition strategy.Rich Spleenfield at it again.
WarnerMedia and NBCUniversal Should Be Merged, Analyst Argues
"In today’s media world, we believe focused scale is the only way to be both large enough and nimble enough to embrace technological change and carve a meaningful space in a tech platform-dominated landscape," says Richard Greenfield.
He says it's unlikely to happen but the fact that he is merely suggesting it shows how far he's fallen.
Twilight_Roxas
Well-Known Member
Despite that Universal would have Looney Tunes, Hanna-Barbera, and DC Comics in their hands, and do those scrapped contents in their Orlando parks.Rich Spleenfield at it again.
WarnerMedia and NBCUniversal Should Be Merged, Analyst Argues
"In today’s media world, we believe focused scale is the only way to be both large enough and nimble enough to embrace technological change and carve a meaningful space in a tech platform-dominated landscape," says Richard Greenfield.
He says it's unlikely to happen but the fact that he is merely suggesting it shows how far he's fallen.
Merging Universel alone with Warner Brothers alone would be interesting. But, there is no way to get this done. Comcast will not split their company up and as long as the have cable, television and the studio any merger would go up against the antitrust laws. The same thing for AT&T but on their side is more likely to agree with a breakup. Besides this is a tread about Disney's next acquisition not Comcasts and on that fron I would like to see them buy the entire Spiderman library and rights from Sony. Yes, I know that won't happen but I can wish.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Why would Disney need to "buy" the rights back from Sony? The rumor has been around for awhile now that Sony wants to dump Sony Pictures. In the event that happens and Sony Pictures is bought by someone else all rights to Spider-Man revert back to Marvel for FREE (its part of the Sony/Marvel contract). Disney doesn't have to spend a dime. So short of Disney buying Sony Pictures themselves (which doesn't gain them much in terms of content so not needed) all they have to do is wait and play nice in the short term and they get Spidey back at no cost.
They would get the rights back going forward but the existing Sony Spiderman Library would stay with whoever purchased them. Anyway, I do not think Sony has any intention of selling Sony Pictures but they could use a few billion dollars to help recover from Covid19.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
It would be no different than Hulk, prior Indiana Jones films, the original Star Wars (prior to the 21st Century deal) or any other film that didn't come with the previous acquisitions Disney has made over the years.
I mean you don't see Disney trying to actively "buy" back the rights to Hulk from Universal at this point do you? I'm sure its come up in conversation about what could be done, but its not like you hear much about it compared to the Spidey deal.
Disney has shown it doesn't "need" to pay for prior film titles from another studio. It only cares about the IP itself. It would be no different in this case. Disney cares about the Spidey IP in order to get it back under the Marvel umbrella. But paying for the entire catalog doesn't make sense. Honestly those older films aren't making Sony any money at this point, and it wouldn't make any other studio money either. And if they did try to somehow make money off of them, it only benefits Disney/Marvel in the long run. Because everyone at that point would identify Spidey back with Marvel. So its win-win-win for Disney all around.
And yes Sony has shown an interest in selling Sony Pictures, it just takes the right price.
AnotherDayAnotherDollar
Well-Known Member
We also never hear Disney talking about anything until they do. We didn't (or at least I didn't) hear anything about Brightline train stop on Disney Springs until it was announced. I'm sure there's been talking about not only those, but all of the Marvel movies/tv shows they don't have the distribution rights to. Also Muppets and Indiana Jones. I wouldn't be surprised if there were talks to acquire the domestic or international distribution rights to some movies that were co distributed (i.e. Paramount and Titanic domestic).
Furthermore Disney SHOULD want to buy the distribution rights to the legacy content. A one stop shop to watch any and all Marvel, Indiana Jones, or Muppets content is a selling and marketing point. And, just like Star Wars, it'll be very very tough to top some of those old Indy flicks. Iger had mentioned how important Disney+ was. Chapek is reorganizing the whole company around it. If Disney+ is that important to them I think they should try to acquire those rights (licensing will only keep getting them in bid wars and they cannot outbid Amazon or Apple).
According to a study from 2018, 80% of Netflix content viewership was from licensed content https://variety.com/2018/digital/ne...rding to a data,more of their total streaming). Given Disney+ lack of must see original content in its first year but impressive growth I am willing to bet the vast majority of viewership was on old content too.
Finally the Sony - Marvel contract is a bit ambiguous on whether or not an eventual SPE buyer would keep the Spider-man movie rights. I think they would based on the 2011 amended contract, but I'm not a lawyer.
You cant deny that it would be a good way for them to compete with Disney/Fox and would give HBO Max a much needed boost in content. I wonder what would happen to Peacock in that situation? Would both streaming services coexist? The problem there though, I cant see a Universal/WB merger being approved under a Biden administration. Under a Trump administration? Maybe. Even if they announced a merger now it would be Biden's DOJ who would say yes or no to the approval. And I just cant see it happening.
Disney's stock is just about back to its all time high of 153.41, closing at 151.49. Disney also has lots of treasury
You need to read the full proposal. It involves the spin off of NBC, and Comcast's cable business. Of course from a legal perspective, Comcast would be selling Universal to the new company made up of WB and Universal. Therefore, the deep pockets of Comcast would no longer be available for Universal's themeparks.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Its long been reported by everyone including Forbes that if SPE is sold that all Spidey rights would be reverted back to Marvel. This was brought to light again when the rumors of Apple buying SPE surfaced last year:
Spider-Man Deal On Hold Because Of Apple Possibly Buying Sony
Apple might be the hero of the day.
cosmicbook.news
As for the rest its a matter of opinion. Disney+ has done just fine without all the other content you mentioned, gaining subs every quarter even with lack of content. Yes there will be some that would like that content in one location. But nothing is stopping Sony or Disney in making a deal right now to put older Spidey movies on D+, as Sony no longer has its own streaming service. There were even rumors it might happen.
Point is that I'm sure Disney would be happy to have all of it under their roof, but they seem happy even if its not. Despite all complaints against them, both Iger and Chapek are smart. They aren't going to pay for something unless it would truly benefit the company. And obviously the right deal hasn't come along yet to make it beneficial to Disney to buy up all the rights again to the older titles.
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Getting back to what Disney should acquire next. It all depends on what would help the streaming business and their other businesses. The idea of theaters is interesting and could help the studio but it would compete with streaming.
Expanding the themepark division in the US would be extremely expensive if they built from scratch. They could buy Cedar Fair and/or Seaworld and that would add millions of guests each year to directly reach and advertise movies and their streaming services along with other Disney Merchandise. Those two companies also complement WDW and DL.
Buying another studio is almost impossible for antitrust reasons.
Buying a video game company is another possibility but given their track record in that area only leads me to believe they would mess it up.
So, where does that leave Disney on expansion and acquisitions. Well, Disney can build new themeparks abroad, Brazil, India and another location in China. That will eventually happen but it will cost tens of billions for 3 parks.
After finishing the worldwide rollout of Disney's streaming services in 2021 and 2022, Disney needs a new goal and it has to be themeparks. I believe adding a regional component is a good way to go and complementary to their destination parks. They could also add some parks in Europe and Latin America. Those would help sell all the other services Disney offers as well as travel to their destination parks, cruises and Adventures by Disney.
Now what will Disney actually do? Nothing until the change their management. Anyone who starts their career with Covid19 will never be a risk taker nor have the vision of what the company can be. No, starting your time with the biggest problems the company has ever faced leads to no risk taking and no expansion. We need new management starting in 2023 for the company's centennial.
Expanding the themepark division in the US would be extremely expensive if they built from scratch. They could buy Cedar Fair and/or Seaworld and that would add millions of guests each year to directly reach and advertise movies and their streaming services along with other Disney Merchandise. Those two companies also complement WDW and DL.
Buying another studio is almost impossible for antitrust reasons.
Buying a video game company is another possibility but given their track record in that area only leads me to believe they would mess it up.
So, where does that leave Disney on expansion and acquisitions. Well, Disney can build new themeparks abroad, Brazil, India and another location in China. That will eventually happen but it will cost tens of billions for 3 parks.
After finishing the worldwide rollout of Disney's streaming services in 2021 and 2022, Disney needs a new goal and it has to be themeparks. I believe adding a regional component is a good way to go and complementary to their destination parks. They could also add some parks in Europe and Latin America. Those would help sell all the other services Disney offers as well as travel to their destination parks, cruises and Adventures by Disney.
Now what will Disney actually do? Nothing until the change their management. Anyone who starts their career with Covid19 will never be a risk taker nor have the vision of what the company can be. No, starting your time with the biggest problems the company has ever faced leads to no risk taking and no expansion. We need new management starting in 2023 for the company's centennial.
AnotherDayAnotherDollar
Well-Known Member
Its long been reported by everyone including Forbes that if SPE is sold that all Spidey rights would be reverted back to Marvel. This was brought to light again when the rumors of Apple buying SPE surfaced last year:
Spider-Man Deal On Hold Because Of Apple Possibly Buying Sony
Apple might be the hero of the day.
As for the rest its a matter of opinion. Disney+ has done just fine without all the other content you mentioned, gaining subs every quarter even with lack of content. Yes there will be some that would like that content in one location. But nothing is stopping Sony or Disney in making a deal right now to put older Spidey movies on D+, as Sony no longer has its own streaming service. There were even rumors it might happen.
Point is that I'm sure Disney would be happy to have all of it under their roof, but they seem happy even if its not. Despite all complaints against them, both Iger and Chapek are smart. They aren't going to pay for something unless it would truly benefit the company. And obviously the right deal hasn't come along yet to make it beneficial to Disney to buy up all the rights again to the older titles.
Disney has done more than fine. It has done superbly without any AAA content this side of Mandalorian. That strengthens my argument on the value of legacy content on the platform, not weaken it.
Regarding Sony - Marvel Spider-man right I go by the actual source (i.e. the leaked the contract), not coscmicbook.news. Here is the verbiage - verbatim - from the 2011 contract. We have discussed this in this forum before, so I don't want to revisit it. If you'd like a link to the contract I can try to provide it. Again I may be wrong, I am not a lawyer, but it seems to me like the rights do transfer in case of a sale.
Theaters is an interesting one post covid. I would think if they were to get in that business they would want a high end, lower volume, higher price experience for the major tentpole blockbuster movies. A "Disney difference" kind of experience or DisneyQuest 2.0 of sorts if you will. Major metropolitan areas, Disney Springs/Downtwon Disney and so on. I don't think they'd need or want to spend the capital to acquire something like AMC, Regal or Cinemark for it.
A theme park is certainly interest especially ones in strategic areas, Cedar Fair or Sea World. Sea World's location in TX is desirable. I kinda thought Disney or Comcast was going to purchase Sea World when their stock was in the tank. Probably wanted to avoid the Black Fish controversy at the time. Regardless they would have to repurpose and remodel the parks, so a lot of CAPEX, but it'd still be cheaper than starting from scratch.
Another studio is not gonna happen. They'd probably pass anti trust, but they don't need it and it's not worth it.
Videogame company is the one they really need to get into. Take 2, Square Enix, Capcom, Nintendo, Sega, Ubisoft, etc are all very good companies with great IPs ready to be mined. Videogame industry is huge, probably as big as the movie industry. Disney - if they were to get in the industry again - would have to buy a couple of publishers, some developers and be pretty hands off post integration.
I think the next step though is to deleverage and get back to A+ credit rating that they have historically been. Christine McCarthy said as much, I believe.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
The article was to show its out there, and is brought up every time a rumor of SPE being bought comes up. Its actually Fortune not CBN (among others) who went through the leaked contract and concluded the rights revert back. I'm sure they did have lawyers review it in order to clarify things.
I've read the Wikileaked contract myself (actually have a copy of it on my computer downloaded when first leaked), and while not a lawyer myself, they don't indicate to me that any buyer of SPE keeps all Spider-Man rights at the conclusion of the sale. Unlike the famous Universal/Marvel theme park deal where all rights are kept in perpetuity. There are also more sections that talk about limitations regarding the rights assignment. But since we are both not lawyers its all moot and suggest we just chalk it up to just agree to disagree. I'm sure at some point in the future if Sony does indeed sell SPE to another party it'll all be made clear.
Also just an aside to this, it was rumored during the spat between Sony and Marvel that Sony offered to sell the Spidey rights back to Marvel/Disney. There were numbers thrown around, if I recall correctly, it was between $5 and $10 Billion. If true this shows that Disney isn't all that keen on paying to get the rights back, otherwise they would have jump on it (even at that price). This might even show that Disney knows what has been discussed is true (which was rumored one of the reasons Disney turned it down), that if Sony sells SPE that rights return for free to Marvel.
Anyways this is all speculation on both our sides, and is fun to talk about at least in my opinion. As I said before I'm sure at some point in the future we'll find out the truth of it all.
To get back on topic, I don't see Disney making a major acquisition at least for the next 2 years. Unless something falls into their lap cheaply, like a theater chain, it just doesn't make sense to spend a large chunk of money externally right now.