Disney's Live Action The Little Mermaid

erasure fan1

Well-Known Member
the posts here are anything to go by, those declaring the film a failure are doing just fine and certainly not being silenced. My only issue is that we’re not actually discussing the film, which is a great shame.
But for instance, I didn't call it a failure. I gave my opinion as to what would qualify as a failure in my eyes. I'm on record many times saying I think it will do fine and should make money. But any perceived threat against what they think about this, or any of the other movies that have garnered the same arguments, is shouted down instantly. They go all Anakin Skywalker, if you're not with me, then you're my enemy!!!
 

LittleBuford

Well-Known Member
But for instance, I didn't call it a failure. I gave my opinion as to what would qualify as a failure in my eyes. I'm on record many times saying I think it will do fine and should make money. But any perceived threat against what they think about this, or any of the other movies that have garnered the same arguments, is shouted down instantly. They go all Anakin Skywalker, if you're not with me, then you're my enemy!!!
Being disagreed with and challenged is not the same as being shouted down.
 

DCBaker

Premium Member
A more detailed look at the numbers for The Little Mermaid from Deadline.

"In a rare situation for a Disney tentpole, particularly a live-action title based on a treasured classic animated musical, The Little Mermaid looks to bank more at the domestic box office ultimately than overseas, with $300M-$350M U.S./Canada to $260M abroad.

At that level, per finance sources, off a reported $250M production cost and $140M global marketing spend, The Little Mermaid could very well break-even. However, anything in the low $400M global threshold and this fish is apt to be sinking to a loss of around $20M.

“Not a huge disappointment, but a disappointment, nonetheless,” one film finance insider told Deadline, given the blockbuster streak often associated with Disney. The studio’s summer slate remains in a precarious position after it boldly world premiered two major titles in Cannes to lackluster reviews: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (49% Rotten Tomatoes) and Pixar’s Elemental (58% Rotten, $40M projected U.S. opening)."

-----

"Again, the slowdown with Little Mermaid, despite a strong start stateside of $118.8M over the 4-day Memorial Day holiday (ahead of Aladdin‘s $116.8M) and a running total through yesterday of $130.2M, stems from the backlash the pic has received in certain offshore markets (i.e. Korea, China, France, Germany) over the casting of star Halle Bailey in the title role as well as review-bombing. Hopeful box office sources maintain that the pic’s opening in Japan, as well as buoyant results in Mexico ($8.5M), UK ($6.3M), Italy ($4.7M), Brazil ($4M) and Australia ($4M), will get The Little Mermaid to a final tally of $260M overseas.

In a break-even scenario off a $560M global box office (meaning a net profit of $71M before participations and residuals are accounted for), we’re told that Little Mermaid‘s global film revenues would amount to $547M against its combined production, global theatrical and home entertainment marketing expenses of $476M. The pic’s revenues broken down include $267M in global theatrical film rentals, $100M net in domestic pay/free TV and what Disney pays itself to put the movie on Disney+, $100M in U.S. home entertainment (DVD, digital), and $80M in international home entertainment and TV.

This weekend, Little Mermaid encounters competition from Sony Animation’s Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, which is expected to do $80M-$90M in U.S./Canada. However, that movie is largely a fanboy draw, and not expected to crimp Little Mermaid‘s fins. Hence, the second weekend hold for Little Mermaid looks to be around around $40M, -58%. Aladdin posted a second weekend of $44.9M, -53%, and ended its domestic run at $355.5M."

 

TalkingHead

Well-Known Member
Disney traditionally specialized in moderately (some might say low-) budgeted live action. 20K and Poppins were the exception, not the rule. Not to mention Walt using ABC’s tv money to help pay for live action features that were used for Disneyland episodes.

Even in the 90s, Disney/Touchstone specialized in mid budgets. The recent (last 15 yr) history of the Disney blockbuster is anomalous and not sustainable, especially since these titles are increasingly becoming gambles as theatrical audience interest is unpredictable, here and abroad.

If Indy 5 underperforms…could get ugly for Iger.
 

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
A more detailed look at the numbers for The Little Mermaid from Deadline.

"In a rare situation for a Disney tentpole, particularly a live-action title based on a treasured classic animated musical, The Little Mermaid looks to bank more at the domestic box office ultimately than overseas, with $300M-$350M U.S./Canada to $260M abroad.

At that level, per finance sources, off a reported $250M production cost and $140M global marketing spend, The Little Mermaid could very well break-even. However, anything in the low $400M global threshold and this fish is apt to be sinking to a loss of around $20M.

“Not a huge disappointment, but a disappointment, nonetheless,” one film finance insider told Deadline, given the blockbuster streak often associated with Disney. The studio’s summer slate remains in a precarious position after it boldly world premiered two major titles in Cannes to lackluster reviews: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (49% Rotten Tomatoes) and Pixar’s Elemental (58% Rotten, $40M projected U.S. opening)."

-----

"Again, the slowdown with Little Mermaid, despite a strong start stateside of $118.8M over the 4-day Memorial Day holiday (ahead of Aladdin‘s $116.8M) and a running total through yesterday of $130.2M, stems from the backlash the pic has received in certain offshore markets (i.e. Korea, China, France, Germany) over the casting of star Halle Bailey in the title role as well as review-bombing. Hopeful box office sources maintain that the pic’s opening in Japan, as well as buoyant results in Mexico ($8.5M), UK ($6.3M), Italy ($4.7M), Brazil ($4M) and Australia ($4M), will get The Little Mermaid to a final tally of $260M overseas.

In a break-even scenario off a $560M global box office (meaning a net profit of $71M before participations and residuals are accounted for), we’re told that Little Mermaid‘s global film revenues would amount to $547M against its combined production, global theatrical and home entertainment marketing expenses of $476M. The pic’s revenues broken down include $267M in global theatrical film rentals, $100M net in domestic pay/free TV and what Disney pays itself to put the movie on Disney+, $100M in U.S. home entertainment (DVD, digital), and $80M in international home entertainment and TV.

This weekend, Little Mermaid encounters competition from Sony Animation’s Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, which is expected to do $80M-$90M in U.S./Canada. However, that movie is largely a fanboy draw, and not expected to crimp Little Mermaid‘s fins. Hence, the second weekend hold for Little Mermaid looks to be around around $40M, -58%. Aladdin posted a second weekend of $44.9M, -53%, and ended its domestic run at $355.5M."

I am rooting for the break even and hoping they make some money.
If Disney does not pull it from the theaters too soon, I think they can make some money. Surely better than losing money.
 

EPCOT-O.G.

Well-Known Member
A more detailed look at the numbers for The Little Mermaid from Deadline.

"In a rare situation for a Disney tentpole, particularly a live-action title based on a treasured classic animated musical, The Little Mermaid looks to bank more at the domestic box office ultimately than overseas, with $300M-$350M U.S./Canada to $260M abroad.

At that level, per finance sources, off a reported $250M production cost and $140M global marketing spend, The Little Mermaid could very well break-even. However, anything in the low $400M global threshold and this fish is apt to be sinking to a loss of around $20M.

“Not a huge disappointment, but a disappointment, nonetheless,” one film finance insider told Deadline, given the blockbuster streak often associated with Disney. The studio’s summer slate remains in a precarious position after it boldly world premiered two major titles in Cannes to lackluster reviews: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (49% Rotten Tomatoes) and Pixar’s Elemental (58% Rotten, $40M projected U.S. opening)."

-----

"Again, the slowdown with Little Mermaid, despite a strong start stateside of $118.8M over the 4-day Memorial Day holiday (ahead of Aladdin‘s $116.8M) and a running total through yesterday of $130.2M, stems from the backlash the pic has received in certain offshore markets (i.e. Korea, China, France, Germany) over the casting of star Halle Bailey in the title role as well as review-bombing. Hopeful box office sources maintain that the pic’s opening in Japan, as well as buoyant results in Mexico ($8.5M), UK ($6.3M), Italy ($4.7M), Brazil ($4M) and Australia ($4M), will get The Little Mermaid to a final tally of $260M overseas.

In a break-even scenario off a $560M global box office (meaning a net profit of $71M before participations and residuals are accounted for), we’re told that Little Mermaid‘s global film revenues would amount to $547M against its combined production, global theatrical and home entertainment marketing expenses of $476M. The pic’s revenues broken down include $267M in global theatrical film rentals, $100M net in domestic pay/free TV and what Disney pays itself to put the movie on Disney+, $100M in U.S. home entertainment (DVD, digital), and $80M in international home entertainment and TV.

This weekend, Little Mermaid encounters competition from Sony Animation’s Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, which is expected to do $80M-$90M in U.S./Canada. However, that movie is largely a fanboy draw, and not expected to crimp Little Mermaid‘s fins. Hence, the second weekend hold for Little Mermaid looks to be around around $40M, -58%. Aladdin posted a second weekend of $44.9M, -53%, and ended its domestic run at $355.5M."

Again. Math and the release calendar doesn’t favor this being a financial success
 

Trauma

Well-Known Member
A more detailed look at the numbers for The Little Mermaid from Deadline.

"In a rare situation for a Disney tentpole, particularly a live-action title based on a treasured classic animated musical, The Little Mermaid looks to bank more at the domestic box office ultimately than overseas, with $300M-$350M U.S./Canada to $260M abroad.

At that level, per finance sources, off a reported $250M production cost and $140M global marketing spend, The Little Mermaid could very well break-even. However, anything in the low $400M global threshold and this fish is apt to be sinking to a loss of around $20M.

“Not a huge disappointment, but a disappointment, nonetheless,” one film finance insider told Deadline, given the blockbuster streak often associated with Disney. The studio’s summer slate remains in a precarious position after it boldly world premiered two major titles in Cannes to lackluster reviews: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (49% Rotten Tomatoes) and Pixar’s Elemental (58% Rotten, $40M projected U.S. opening)."

-----

"Again, the slowdown with Little Mermaid, despite a strong start stateside of $118.8M over the 4-day Memorial Day holiday (ahead of Aladdin‘s $116.8M) and a running total through yesterday of $130.2M, stems from the backlash the pic has received in certain offshore markets (i.e. Korea, China, France, Germany) over the casting of star Halle Bailey in the title role as well as review-bombing. Hopeful box office sources maintain that the pic’s opening in Japan, as well as buoyant results in Mexico ($8.5M), UK ($6.3M), Italy ($4.7M), Brazil ($4M) and Australia ($4M), will get The Little Mermaid to a final tally of $260M overseas.

In a break-even scenario off a $560M global box office (meaning a net profit of $71M before participations and residuals are accounted for), we’re told that Little Mermaid‘s global film revenues would amount to $547M against its combined production, global theatrical and home entertainment marketing expenses of $476M. The pic’s revenues broken down include $267M in global theatrical film rentals, $100M net in domestic pay/free TV and what Disney pays itself to put the movie on Disney+, $100M in U.S. home entertainment (DVD, digital), and $80M in international home entertainment and TV.

This weekend, Little Mermaid encounters competition from Sony Animation’s Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, which is expected to do $80M-$90M in U.S./Canada. However, that movie is largely a fanboy draw, and not expected to crimp Little Mermaid‘s fins. Hence, the second weekend hold for Little Mermaid looks to be around around $40M, -58%. Aladdin posted a second weekend of $44.9M, -53%, and ended its domestic run at $355.5M."

This movie has a big hill to climb. Spidey is about to turn it into a mountain.
 

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
The real question is whether Disney should have budgeted with the disastrous Asian box office in mind. And could they ever have foreseen it? Do they cut the budget at risk of the film doing much worse domestically? That's a hard one because, as I said, it was impossible to foresee what happened overseas. It was not until the movie was about to be released that the writing was on the wall for Asia. And it was obviously too late at that point.

The only thing they can do for the future is either (1) keep budgets VERY small or (2) study the Asian markets and purposely make movies tailor made to succeed there (IF they even want to see anything from Disney). Either is a gamble.
 

Trauma

Well-Known Member
The real question is whether Disney should have budgeted with the disastrous Asian box office in mind. And could they ever have foreseen it? Do they cut the budget at risk of the film doing much worse domestically? That's a hard one because, as I said, it was impossible to foresee what happened overseas. It was not until the movie was about to be released that the writing was on the wall for Asia. And it was obviously too late at that point.

The only thing they can do for the future is either (1) keep budgets VERY small or (2) study the Asian markets and purposely make movies tailor made to succeed there (IF they even want to see anything from Disney). Either is a gamble.
So your saying when your spending 550-650m on something you should study the marketplace ahead of time?

Fascinating…
 

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
So your saying when your spending 550-650m on something you should study the marketplace ahead of time?

Fascinating…
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LittleBuford

Well-Known Member
But that's being argumentative for the sake of being argumentative. And that's no different than the people who "just want it to fail". It might be tiresome to hear it's a flop or a failure all the time. But it really does work both ways.
I’m not sure if I’m one of the people you’re referring to, but I don’t argue for the sake of arguing. My posts in the Strange World thread, where I fully acknowledged that the film was a flop even though I personally liked it, are proof enough that I don’t just defend things out of some unthinking loyalty to Disney. By my standards (which appear to be different from yours), The Little Mermaid is not a failure. If I felt the opposite, I would readily say so.
 

CinematicFusion

Well-Known Member
Perhaps it should, but why we’re discussing Disney’s earnings rather than the film itself is beyond me given the ostensible topic of the thread.
What’s there to talk about with the film. It’s a remake of an all time classic. Like
My daughter said, it was ok but doesn’t hold a candle to the animated film.
If it doesn’t cross 800 million, it was an unnecessary money loss for Disney.

Let’s see what happens
 

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