A more detailed look at the numbers for
The Little Mermaid from Deadline.
"In a rare situation for a Disney tentpole, particularly a live-action title based on a treasured classic animated musical,
The Little Mermaid looks to bank more at the domestic box office ultimately than overseas, with $300M-$350M U.S./Canada to $260M abroad.
At that level, per finance sources, off a reported $250M production cost and $140M global marketing spend,
The Little Mermaid could very well break-even. However, anything in the low $400M global threshold and this fish is apt to be sinking to a loss of around $20M.
“Not a huge disappointment, but a disappointment, nonetheless,” one film finance insider told Deadline, given the blockbuster streak often associated with Disney. The studio’s summer slate remains in a precarious position after it boldly world premiered two major titles in Cannes to lackluster reviews:
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (49% Rotten Tomatoes) and Pixar’s
Elemental (58% Rotten, $40M projected U.S. opening)."
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"Again, the slowdown with
Little Mermaid, despite a strong start stateside of $118.8M over the 4-day Memorial Day holiday (ahead of
Aladdin‘s $116.8M) and a running total through yesterday of $130.2M, stems from the backlash the pic has received in certain offshore markets (i.e. Korea, China, France, Germany) over the casting of star Halle Bailey in the title role as well as review-bombing. Hopeful box office sources maintain that the pic’s opening in Japan, as well as buoyant results in Mexico ($8.5M), UK ($6.3M), Italy ($4.7M), Brazil ($4M) and Australia ($4M), will get
The Little Mermaid to a final tally of $260M overseas.
In a break-even scenario off a $560M global box office (meaning a net profit of $71M before participations and residuals are accounted for), we’re told that
Little Mermaid‘s global film revenues would amount to $547M against its combined production, global theatrical and home entertainment marketing expenses of $476M. The pic’s revenues broken down include $267M in global theatrical film rentals, $100M net in domestic pay/free TV and what Disney pays itself to put the movie on Disney+, $100M in U.S. home entertainment (DVD, digital), and $80M in international home entertainment and TV.
This weekend,
Little Mermaid encounters competition from Sony Animation’s
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, which is expected to do $80M-$90M in U.S./Canada. However, that movie is largely a fanboy draw, and not expected to crimp
Little Mermaid‘s fins. Hence, the second weekend hold for
Little Mermaid looks to be around around $40M, -58%.
Aladdin posted a second weekend of $44.9M, -53%, and ended its domestic run at $355.5M."
In a rare situation for a Disney tentpole, particularly a live action title based on a treasured animated classic, 'The Little Mermaid' may lose money.
deadline.com