CaptainMickey
Well-Known Member
I'm guessing shareholders won't be thrilled to hear these choices are making them less money.
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Disney's Live Action The Little Mermaid
- Thread starter NateD1226
- Start date
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
I will fully admit to saying it had a good shot at a billion. I 100% confess and will say I believe it until release. But here is why:
1. The domestic sales rate up until the last week were ahead of Aladdin. They were somewhere between Aladdin and BatB. Until the last week of sales, Thursday previews were looking to be around $12-$13 million.
2. RT critics gave it a higher rating than both Aladdin and Lion King-a LOT higher. It was right around BatB's rating and was fresh. For a short time, it was just under certified fresh.
3. There was no real indication of what was going to happen in Asia until the last few days before release. Of course, I don't follow Asian markets or their social media sites.
4. Looking at the domestic/overseas ratios for the remakes, none of the big remakes (JB, BatB, Alad, LK) made less than 60% from overseas. Most were in the mid-60's, meaning that around 35% of the total box office for those movies was domestic.
5. Box Office Pro adjusted their projections accordingly. $105-$110 million for the 3-day total was generally expected. Likewise, $130-$140 million was expected for the 4-day total. All numbers pointed there and no reason to suspect otherwise until its release.
6. Domestic multipliers for the 4 biggest remakes averaged 3.30x with the most comparable, Aladdin, coming in at the highest with 3.90x.
So going by all that math:
OW: $110m
domestic (based on the average multiplier)=$363million
WW (65%)=$1.037 billion
Nobody predicted that sales would slump the way they did in the last week.
Nobody could have predicted the Asian reactions. That has been a TOTAL shock. The domestic number would not be that far off from predicted, but oversea's numbers are a complete blindside.
So anyone saying that they saw this coming is being completely disingenuous.
CaptainMickey
Well-Known Member
You do understand what happens to companies that don't continue to make a profit, right?
LittleBuford
Well-Known Member
Disney has been the top-grossing studio every year since 2016. I’m not worried.
Walt Disney Studios Closes Out 2022 with 7th Consecutive Year at #1 Globally
The Walt Disney Studios has posted a global box office gross of $4.9 billion from 16 theatrical releases for the 2022 calendar year, including $2 billion domestic and $2.9 billion international. That figure puts the studio at #1 in the domestic, international, and global box office for 2022...
www.boxofficepro.com
doctornick
Well-Known Member
I mean, that’s fine for you but ultimately for the company the main issue is whether something is profitable. Now ultimately I think this eek out enough box office combined with other revenues like merch that it will be around break even. But let’s not fool ourselves into thinking that is what the company wanted when it greenlit and made this film.
The problem from my prospective is that they’ll learn the wrong lessons from this and do even more “safe” stuff with diminishing returns rather than being creative.
doctornick
Well-Known Member
Unfortunately they make particularly expensive films and grosses don’t equal profit.Disney has been the top-grossing studio every year since 2016. I’m not worried.
Walt Disney Studios Closes Out 2022 with 7th Consecutive Year at #1 Globally
The Walt Disney Studios has posted a global box office gross of $4.9 billion from 16 theatrical releases for the 2022 calendar year, including $2 billion domestic and $2.9 billion international. That figure puts the studio at #1 in the domestic, international, and global box office for 2022...
I’m not “worried” about Disney as a company going bankrupt or anything but the trend for films for them with increasing budgets and decreasing box office (or at least more variable/less reliable) is not going the right direction
Your seeing ghosts.
Halle is the ONLY reason to even see the movie.
If it wasn’t for her this would be a Strange World level flop.
The fact that this thing made any money at all is a testament to her performance.
That’s the shame of it all.
Great performance in a movie most people will never see.
LittleBuford
Well-Known Member
I don’t believe this particular remake was a “safe” bet at all.
To your larger point, the remakes have been going now for the best part of a decade, and they haven’t stopped Disney simultaneously pursuing more creative avenues. It needn’t be a binary choice.
LittleBuford
Well-Known Member
In your opinion. I found quite a bit to enjoy.
Whatever one may think of the film, the idea that it isn’t going to be viewed by a great many people seems untenable to me.
erasure fan1
Well-Known Member
As far as the box office goes, it is/was pretty well assumed by most that the movie would make between 600/700mil plus. Will that be a success or failure? Depends on your definition. If the movie makes money, I'd say it was successful. If it falls short of making a profit, that's a fail in my eyes.
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Agreed… I am also sure they knew it was risk, but also it may make up any profit losses in other ways outside of theatrical
Californian Elitist
Well-Known Member
Exactly. No film has been seen by “most people” in theaters during its release.
doctornick
Well-Known Member
That was obviously a joke but I don’t think under performing in Asia is any way surprising. I mean, it’s at least a train of thought out there than films with darker skinned leads do not do well in East Asia, which is reflected in how Disney among other studios tend to hide such actors on their marketing.
Furthermore, specific to China, I don’t think the original TLM is even known there to much of any degree. Which would limit how much nostalgia would come into play with driving the box office and these live action remakes largely depend on nostalgia to drive ticket sales.
I actually think the performance in Europe is more concerning than Asia which was always likely to be subpar.
CaptainMickey
Well-Known Member
The scary thing for Disney is this is probably going to be the most profitable movie of the tentpole movies on the upcoming calendar... Lucasfilm / Indiana Jones, Pixar / Elemental and Marvel / The Marvels. All 3 of those expected blockbusters will probably lose money. Those studios used to crank out slam dunk hits. Unreliable now.
I hope Wish is excellent or it's flops for the rest of the year.
Don't forget Disney has to purchase the rest of Hulu in January for a minimum of NINE BILLION DOLLARS.
I hope Wish is excellent or it's flops for the rest of the year.
Don't forget Disney has to purchase the rest of Hulu in January for a minimum of NINE BILLION DOLLARS.
doctornick
Well-Known Member
The Marvels is going to do great. I think it will definitely make more than TLM worldwide.
CaptainAmerica
Premium Member
M3GAN had a budget of like $12 million, not $250 million.If that’s the case Little Mermaid is a gold mine as it made roughly the same in its opening weekend
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
I predict The Marvels to be the next Eternals.
MagicHappens1971
Well-Known Member
I’m sure that won’t be surprising to Disney. It’s why they keep making these live actions, they’re basically guaranteed to make money. I think Indy will make at least $500M worldwide, and the Marvels $700-$800M worldwide. Elemental, not so confident in.
They don’t have to purchase it, but I’m sure they will.
While I was working this morning I had the news on in the background. The news story as far as Little Mermaid goes with the general, non-Disney freak public - a resounding success. They reported on it like it is a blockbuster!
So for most people who don't pay close attention, LM is HIT.
So for most people who don't pay close attention, LM is HIT.
BlakeW39
Well-Known Member
finally...something we agree on heheh