VaderTron
Well-Known Member
Except your "Kraken" somehow destroyed a huge portion of your taxi cab fleet (why are you keeping your taxi fleet in the middle of the ocean anyway?) not just one and lost you billions, not just $10,000.
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Disney's FY20 Q3 Earnings (8/4/20)
- Thread starter brb1006
- Start date
Except your "Kraken" somehow destroyed a huge portion of your taxi cab fleet (why are you keeping your taxi fleet in the middle of the ocean anyway?) not just one and lost you billions, not just $10,000.
WDW Pro
Well-Known Member
Again correct, but just know that further debt they incur, outside of government bailouts, is likely to require greater and greater interest rates. That's why in any Corporation, at some point they go from taking on debt to selling assets in a situation such as this.
Dave Z
Well-Known Member
Or Bob bucksBut it’s all smoke and mirrors...because if you’re “worth” That much you’re never required to actually pay it...The “free” market indeed
VaderTron
Well-Known Member
Here is something I have been thinking about in regard to the heavy focus on Disney+ performance.
1) Disney+ is a new offering, especially oversees. Anything that is even slightly interesting gets attention when it's new. I remember the days that people were swooning over Sling TV. Heck, they have a button on Roku remotes. Their subscriber numbers are dropping. The novelty has worn off and people are finding something else they prefer. I see this happening with Disney+ sooner rather than later. I myself have already watched what I was interested in. Now we probably turn to Disney+ two maybe three times a month, and that's more because I want to get some use out of what I've paid for, not because I'm dying to watch something from their library. Our household is likely to drop it once the year subscription runs out. We may return later once new content builds to a level worth paying for a month or two, but I likely will not do another 1Y membership.
2) How many subscribers paid the 1-3 year deal upfront? I feel like it's a substantial number north of 25%. All that money was given to Disney last year. They aren't seeing any revenue from those subscribers now. Zero, zilch, nada.
3) As far as the timing for Disney+ to debut, it almost is like a marlin jumped into the fishing boat. Such incredible good fortune. They get a large number of people to subscribe using a long-term subscription. Then, just a few months later a global pandemic starts just as they have rolled out internationally. People are encouraged to stay home as much as possible. The perfect storm has arrived for increased consumers to beg you to take their money. What happens? Even as the situation slogs on, only 60mil have subscribed worldwide. And for all three of their streaming platforms they have a total of 100mil subscribers. That looks like a lot, but they were at 70 million in March. So, only 30 million more across all three platforms. Even still, the three together are dwarfed by Netflix's 182mil, almost double the subscribers for one service. Rather than Netfilx's having it's customers stolen, they had a net increase in subscriptions of 22% over the previous year.
The take-away: Disney+ will likely never have as good of an opportunity to gain subscribers than it did in the past quarter. People were just short of chained to their couches and told to watch TV for several months. Yet, only 30 million new subscribers decided they wanted to watch ESPN+, Disney+ or Hulu. Not good.
1) Disney+ is a new offering, especially oversees. Anything that is even slightly interesting gets attention when it's new. I remember the days that people were swooning over Sling TV. Heck, they have a button on Roku remotes. Their subscriber numbers are dropping. The novelty has worn off and people are finding something else they prefer. I see this happening with Disney+ sooner rather than later. I myself have already watched what I was interested in. Now we probably turn to Disney+ two maybe three times a month, and that's more because I want to get some use out of what I've paid for, not because I'm dying to watch something from their library. Our household is likely to drop it once the year subscription runs out. We may return later once new content builds to a level worth paying for a month or two, but I likely will not do another 1Y membership.
2) How many subscribers paid the 1-3 year deal upfront? I feel like it's a substantial number north of 25%. All that money was given to Disney last year. They aren't seeing any revenue from those subscribers now. Zero, zilch, nada.
3) As far as the timing for Disney+ to debut, it almost is like a marlin jumped into the fishing boat. Such incredible good fortune. They get a large number of people to subscribe using a long-term subscription. Then, just a few months later a global pandemic starts just as they have rolled out internationally. People are encouraged to stay home as much as possible. The perfect storm has arrived for increased consumers to beg you to take their money. What happens? Even as the situation slogs on, only 60mil have subscribed worldwide. And for all three of their streaming platforms they have a total of 100mil subscribers. That looks like a lot, but they were at 70 million in March. So, only 30 million more across all three platforms. Even still, the three together are dwarfed by Netflix's 182mil, almost double the subscribers for one service. Rather than Netfilx's having it's customers stolen, they had a net increase in subscriptions of 22% over the previous year.
The take-away: Disney+ will likely never have as good of an opportunity to gain subscribers than it did in the past quarter. People were just short of chained to their couches and told to watch TV for several months. Yet, only 30 million new subscribers decided they wanted to watch ESPN+, Disney+ or Hulu. Not good.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Interest rates go up as credit rating goes down. TWDC is still 2 levels above the bottom of investment grade so they have a ways to go before interest rate matters. The company I work for is a level below investment grade and we can still borrow money easily at a pretty attractive rate right now. The capital markets are flush with cash right now, not like 2008. Eventually you have to pay the piper so at some point if they take on a lot of extra debt they may consider a sale of assets to pay it down, but I would think that would be part of a strategic decision on if they want to keep those assets long term. Right now the theme parks are worth the least they probably ever were so it’s a terrible time to think about selling them. It would be like trying to sell a beach house on a barrier island the day after a hurricane while the power is still out and the only bridge to the island was knocked out and is closed for the next year. Someone may see the potential that house will have in a year when the dust settles, but most buyers would say no way, unless they got it for a rock bottom price.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Excellent point about Disney+
People are Gagas over it...and it is a very nice platform...
But they’re going to ebb in interest/subscriptions unless they provide massive new content. And I don’t know if I trust them to do it or be able to even write it??
Disney story departments haven’t been churning out ingenious new ideas.
More bad takes on old ones.
Box office results are not a correlation to quality.sadly.
Notes from Neverland
Well-Known Member
Disney stock is surging upward this morning.
tirian
Well-Known Member
Quick aside: I’m getting frustrated with the visual quality of many things made before 1990. It looks like an intern crunched a DVD with the default settings in Handbreak: the interlacing is terrible. Try watching the Mickey Mouse short “Brave Little Tailor” for an egregious example. Much of the Vault Disney TV content also looks like it’s from home videotape, including commercials and VCR/VHS tracking!
Horizons '83
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- No
Seems like analysts were expecting a lot worse. I think Q4 will be more telling.
VaderTron
Well-Known Member
I truly believe the financial world has lost it's mind. 12.35% increase and still going. They announced nothing new. The "Star" streaming service is slated to stream content they already own, not new content, and won't debut until sometime in 2021...You know...right when people hope to be getting out of their homes and seeing the world again! Somehow that is worth a 12%+ increase??!!
I feel like that old person who doesn't recognize the world around them anymore...
UNCgolf
Well-Known Member
Well, to be fair, it's not like there was really anything to watch on ESPN+.
With that said, ESPN+ will only become a big deal if cord-cutters can subscribe to it and get access to everything being broadcast on ESPN, ESPN2, etc. like Monday Night Football. That's not the case right now (and may not ever be due to different rights issues); it's basically just access to some very minor additional games and some exclusive reporting content. If that does eventually happen, though, ESPN+ could become a profit machine.
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
If it is surging like that you know the Bobs aren't out there selling off their shares. Loose money looking for a place to sit.
ElvisMickey
Well-Known Member
And there’s still legacy content that’s not on it...Something Wicked This Way Comes, Watcher In The Woods, etc. I could care less about the new content. Give me everything Pre Iger.
Nubs70
Well-Known Member
90%+ decrease in revenue yields 12% increase in stock price??? Imagine how stock price would surge further if WDW had a 100% decrease in revenue.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
You got most of it...and if you thirst for more you are very “niche”
New content has become the driver of streams.
I bet Disney HATES that
As much as I think people subscribe to get Delta Force (most awesomely bad movie ever)...‘‘tis not so
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DVCakaCarlF
Well-Known Member
It would be even higher...ask @realBobChapek!
DVCakaCarlF
Well-Known Member
@realBobChapek did you get a popsicle and 10 more minutes of cartoons last night from your pops (Iger), after that great call?
peter11435
Well-Known Member
That 12% increase is really just restoring value that was lost due to Covid. It’s still lower than it was before all this started.
RunningKoen
Well-Known Member
Is there a need for something new to justify a stock increase?
Maybe the numbers aren't as bad as expected, and there is the news that the parks are profitable with all the restrictions.
The company surviving well enough and the glimpse of profits in the future seems to be enough reasons for a stock increase ;-)
Nubs70
Well-Known Member
Seriously, your prized dog just took a financial poop on the carpet and the market is saying "good dog" because the size of the log could have been larger.