Disney's FY20 Q3 Earnings (8/4/20)

Chef Mickey

Well-Known Member
I don’t remember that exact quote, but he made a statement that it is going to take a return in consumer confidence in addition to getting past COVID for the parks & resorts to get back to their former performance. That is a statement that while this all may have started with COVID the problems facing the parks & resorts are now deeper than just the virus itself.
I heard the quote.

You're doom and glooming. Consumer confidence is directly virus related and has nothing to do with the Disney brand. See the Disney parks numbers pre virus. Growing as usual.

No question travel has been hit hardest and it will take time to return. But people want to go to Disney, just like they always have...they just need to gain the confidence to travel again. It will come back. Always does. Already seeing it.
 

brianstl

Well-Known Member
The $4.953 is not revenue it’s an expense, it’s just a non-cash expense so for the statement of cash flows it’s included as part of the loss in net income but then you add it back since it’s non-cash. The impairment is related to goodwill that was put on the books from an acquisition. If they shut down those channels they have to write-off any goodwill or fixed assets associated with them.
It is listed as income and not a net loss in the 10 Q. Page 5
 

WDW Pro

Well-Known Member
Mulan to be released on Disney+ September 4th - $29.99.

I made a thread about this months ago and said this was a serious option... reception from some was not great.

Did I hear that right? WDW is operating as a net positive $-wise?

If you count large third party investments rather than typical revenue streams, yes for now. That is unlikely to hold.

Quick tangent: The report says Disney makes and average of $4.62/month per subscriber. That’s not much to float the entire company, even at 52 million subs. But once everything is up and running again, it’s a nice chunk of change for making old Vault content available again. (That’s not a complaint. Bring on more Vault Disney!)

Which is why Disney+ subscriptions are likely to rise in cost over the next years.

No thet lost almost $5 billion in real money. People need to learn how to read a report.

And they have enough cash on hand to burn through for 12 months at this rate. Given that they're unlikely to let cash reserves drop below 5 billion, they might consider asset sales starting this winter if the situation doesn't improve.

All the doom and gloom insiders of late really not looking good right now. Disney is not on the verge of bankruptcy, they're not going to seriously entertain selling off the China parks to stay above water, this company is fine and all the insiders are vastly exaggerating things as evidenced by todays earnings.

I'm just not sure people have a grasp on what 5 billion burn means with significant rising costs upcoming and uncertainty as to an improving situation. The stock predictably didn't change drastically because investors already knew this would be brutal... that's already baked into the stock price. If you want to see Disney's stock crater, see what happens if it's announced that no vaccine candidates show efficacy. Everything right now comes down to the belief that Disney can resume full business operations no later than summer 2021.

So Disney+ finally goes international... and only adds like 3million subs??

And they pop their cherry on charging PPV on top of subscription prices? That's coming a lot earlier than expected :) :)

I think you make a very astute observation here. Likewise I think it's interesting they're counting bundle subscribers as multiple independent subscriptions.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Thats the statement of cash flows. You take Net Income and then back out any non-cash items in Net Income and add in any cash items that result in a change in the balance sheet instead of net income. So depreciation is shown as a positive number there too since it’s a non-cash expense.

Ignoring the other items let’s say you have a loss of 1B in net income, 4B of that from depreciation and 5B of impairment charges you take -1 + 4 + 5 to get to 8B of cash flows from operations. That’s the piece of net income that is related to cash.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Here’s the details of the impairment charges from the 10Q. It is related to Covid but has nothing to do with theme parks. They are writing off a portion of the value on the books from the Fox acquisition relating to International Channels. The value on TWDC books was based on fair value (what they were worth) at acquisition and since they are worth less today they had to impair them. It’s a non-cash expense.

18. Restructuring and Impairment Charges Goodwill and Intangible Asset Impairment
As discussed in the Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates section of our fiscal 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K, the fair value of our International Channels reporting unit previously exceeded the carrying value by less than 10% at September 28, 2019. Our International Channels reporting unit, which is part of the Direct-to-Consumer & International segment, comprises the Company’s international television networks. Our international television networks primarily derive revenues from affiliate fees charged to multi-channel video programming distributors (i.e. cable, satellite, telecommunications and digital over-the-top service providers) (MVPDs) for the right to deliver our programming under multi-year licensing agreements and the sales of advertising time/space on the networks. A majority of the operations in this reporting unit were acquired in the TFCF acquisition and therefore the fair value of these businesses approximated the carrying value at the date of the acquisition of TFCF.
The International Channels business has been negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic resulting in decreased viewership and lower advertising revenue related to the availability of content, including the deferral or cancellation of certain live sporting events. The Company’s increased focus on DTC distribution in international markets is expected to negatively impact the International Channels business as we shift the primary means of monetizing our film and television content from licensing of linear channels to use on our DTC services because the International Channels reporting unit valuation does not include the value derived from this shift, which is reflected in other reporting units. In addition, the industry shift to DTC, including by us and many of our distributors, who are pursuing their own DTC strategies, has changed the competitive dynamics for the International Channels business and resulted in unfavorable renewal terms for certain of our distribution agreements.
Due to the current circumstances, for the third quarter of fiscal 2020, we performed an impairment test of the International Channels’ goodwill and long-lived asset groups including intangible assets.
The impairment test requires a comparison of cash flows expected to be generated over the useful life of an asset group to the carrying value of the asset group. Assets are grouped at the lowest level for which identifiable cash flows are largely independent of the cash flows of other groups of assets. If the carrying value of an asset group exceeds the estimated undiscounted future cash flows, an impairment is measured as the difference between the fair value of the group’s long-lived assets and the carrying value of the group’s long-lived assets.
We determined the appropriate asset groups for our International Channels to be the regions in which they operate. We estimated the projected undiscounted cash flows over the remaining useful life of an asset group. The more significant inputs used in determining our estimate of the projected undiscounted cash flows included future revenue growth and projected margins as well as the estimate of the remaining useful life of an asset group.
If the carrying value of an asset group exceeded the estimated undiscounted cash flows, the impairment loss is the excess of the carrying value over the fair value. The determination of fair value requires us to make assumptions and estimates about how market participants would value the asset groups. The most sensitive factors affecting the fair value of an asset group are the future revenue growth and projected margins for these businesses as well as the discount rates used to calculate the present value of future cash flows.
For the quarter-ended June 27, 2020, we recorded a non-cash impairment charge on our MVPD agreement intangible assets of $1.9 billion. After impairment, the remaining balance of the International Channels MVPD agreement intangible assets is approximately $3.0 billion.
We tested the International Channels reporting unit goodwill for impairment on an interim basis by comparing the fair value of the International Channels reporting unit to its carrying value. The fair value was determined using a discounted cash flow analysis. The determination of fair value requires us to make assumptions and estimates about how market participants would value the International Channels. The more sensitive inputs used in the discounted cash flow analysis include future revenue growth and projected margins as well as the discount rates used to calculate the present value of future cash flows. Given the ongoing impacts of COVID-19, the projected cash flows and underlying assumptions are subject to greater uncertainty than normal.
For the quarter-ended June 27, 2020, the carrying value of the International Channels exceeded the fair value, and we recorded a non-cash impairment charge of $3.1 billion to fully impair the International Channels reporting unit’s goodwill.
The $1.9 billion impairment of our MVPD relationships and $3.1 billion impairment of goodwill are recorded in “Restructuring and impairment charges” in the Condensed Consolidated Statements of Income.
 

nyrebel3

Active Member
Look at the Income Statement on Page 2. It shows Restructuring and impairment charges of ($5,047). That is a non-cash expense and why it is being added back to the Statement of CASH Flows. You are confusing the different Financial Statements.

Essentially Disney overpaid an acquisition and is having to correct their Balance Sheet to the correct amount. It’s like you bought a Movie Theater Chain for $7.5B and you consider that an asset. Now because of Covid, the Movie Theater chain is only worth $2.5B and it is never going to increase in value again. You are recognizing that the value of your asset has permanently decreased $5.0B and have to record a non-cash expense. This has nothing to do with operations and Wall Street usually ignores non-cash write-offs.
 

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
It's no surprise but I just wanted to share this from Disney's 10Q since it's shocking to see in print:

theme parks.jpg


Theme park revenue down 96.5%. :jawdrop:
 

Ldno

Well-Known Member
$15 seems more reasonable IMHO.
If this was being sold on iTunes, $30 seems appropriate. But it’s not. It’s 100% Disney profit. No middleman. And I pay to use the delivery mechanism, which uses MY bandwidth to do so.

$29 is absurd.
Never have I seen itunes charge 30 bucks for a rental, Sony did it right by letting you pay 24.99 for a movie to own on release date or 19.99 to rent, with 30 bucks you don’t even own the movie. Disney has been charging 24.99 on the Microsoft store and Vudu for their 4k versions of movies while leaving Apple behind because of a disagreement.
2019 US average ticket price was $9.11. Times four that is $36.44. One month of D+ if you’re only subscribing for the month is $7 USD. This costs the same as a matinee and Disney keeps around 95-97% of the take. Even better deal if you have a 4K HDR TV at home since D+ streams in that format and TWDS started moving their new releases to that format.

We don’t know the conditions of the transaction, but that’s a steal.
Theaters in my city are 11.50-15.00 for imax, we pay close to 30 bucks to “watch” A movie at a theater but it’s not the same for VOD when you already subscribe for it. Even with Amazon Prime, yes you pay for the service but you can still buy the digital movie outside prime.
Comcast has been using this model for years already. New releases first show for purchase usually at $19.99 when the film is available for digital purchase. Shortly after, they appear on the paid movie channels and OnDemand for those who have the paid movie channels or for rent for $5.99 for those who don't have them. MONTHS later, they show up in the OnDemand that's free for all subscribers.

Comcast did this the right way, they made so much money off trolls world tour that I actually got a 10$ voucher from iTunes in July for renting this movie during the first week it made 100million. Can’t complain at all, they can release any movie they want to and I will rent it out day one.
If it's not, Mulan will be the most popular movie on BitTorrent in 2020.
Ain’t this the sad truth.
Originals stories...no sequels, remakes or reboots

Slowwwly notice the pattern

There are almost no new ideas or characters in that entire slate. 10 years
Disney can screw itself for this for killing the public domain, I hope Mickey Mouse goes public come 2024 finally once and for all. This is what they get and hopefully Disney And Hollywood learned their lesson.
 

Chef Mickey

Well-Known Member
I made a thread about this months ago and said this was a serious option... reception from some was not great.



If you count large third party investments rather than typical revenue streams, yes for now. That is unlikely to hold.



Which is why Disney+ subscriptions are likely to rise in cost over the next years.



And they have enough cash on hand to burn through for 12 months at this rate. Given that they're unlikely to let cash reserves drop below 5 billion, they might consider asset sales starting this winter if the situation doesn't improve.



I'm just not sure people have a grasp on what 5 billion burn means with significant rising costs upcoming and uncertainty as to an improving situation. The stock predictably didn't change drastically because investors already knew this would be brutal... that's already baked into the stock price. If you want to see Disney's stock crater, see what happens if it's announced that no vaccine candidates show efficacy. Everything right now comes down to the belief that Disney can resume full business operations no later than summer 2021.



I think you make a very astute observation here. Likewise I think it's interesting they're counting bundle subscribers as multiple independent subscriptions.
Explain how they continue to burn cash at this rate? They just reported a quarter with no open theaters, no sports, no US park operations open and mostly closed all over the world...all that has already changed and they still made $1B in operating income.

The $5B charge was mostly a one time impairment of goodwill due to the situation, not something that happens every quarter.

The impairment of goodwill and intangible assets reflected the impacts of COVID-19 and of the ongoing shift of film and television distribution from licensing of linear channels to a direct-to-consumer business model on the International Channel businesses.

This was the bad quarter and it wasn’t that bad, all considered.

Your asset sale statement is pure speculation. They have plenty of cash and their income will improve this quarter.

I mean, obviously they need a recovery in travel, but it’s going to happen. People are already adjusting. Wear a mask, live your life. People put up with staying in their houses about 2 months (and not even really that). People won’t avoid traveling forever. Too boring. My flight to Orlando was 80% full and return was almost 90%.
 
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brianstl

Well-Known Member
so if I am reading this correctly Disney has borrowed over $28 billion dollars this fiscal year, paid off $11 billion in debt this year and has $23 billion on hand. They have a total debt of over $64 billion. Plus, they have a $17.25 billion line of credit that they haven’t tapped yet.
 

Crazydisneyfanluke

Well-Known Member
Why would I pay $29 on top of the subscription price to watch a movie on my TV....?

How dumb.
Have you been to any Disney park?

It's like paying a ticket to go to a park, where I park my car for $25 a day, then pay $X a day for pictures, then pay $X for a party ticket, then pay $X to attend a private party with in the event.

This has clearly worked for their brand. It won't stop.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Have you been to any Disney park?

It's like paying a ticket to go to a park, where I park my car for $25 a day, then pay $X a day for pictures, then pay $X for a party ticket, then pay $X to attend a private party with in the event.

This has clearly worked for their brand. It won't stop.
And that is the DUMBEST behavior pattern in the history of Disney parks by the consumers

...I’ve done the research...and I could write a book
 

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