Disneyland To Open Sept. 16th?

Darkbeer1

Darkbeer1

Well-Known Member
capitolweekly.net

Facing possible loss of House seat, California awaits census - Capitol Weekly

With some experts predicting an undercount in the 2020 census, it appears more likely that the state could drop from 53 Congress representatives to 52.
capitolweekly.net capitolweekly.net

>>Jessica Patterson, the new chair of the California Republican Party, pointed out that a contributing factor to the state’s declining population growth is people moving out of California because the state is unaffordable. The LAO reported last year that 6 million moved out of California while only 5 million moved in. Patterson a recent poll that showed that 53 percent of Californians are considering moving out of state.<<
 
el_super

el_super

Well-Known Member
Darkbeer1 said:
Jessica Patterson, the new chair of the California Republican Party, pointed out that a contributing factor to the state’s declining population growth is people moving out of California because the state is unaffordable.
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It's unaffordable, because there is a severe housing shortage in California that needs to be (and actually is finally) being addressed. That's why you're not seeing a huge swing in population in California, which is still, by a considerable margin, the most populous state in the US.

CA is losing a house seat mostly due to the way apportionment works, not because of a population decline (and in fact, between the 2010 census and 2020 census, CA's population will have increased by about 6%). Apportionment is the reasons why Californian's votes weigh less in Congress.

Housing is going to be a hot topic in California for decades to come, and it's one of the areas where Newsom's polling shows he is struggling. It's worth mentioning that his poll numbers regarding his response to COVID-19 are actually pretty favorable.
 
C

cmwade77

Well-Known Member
Getting back on topic, I predict that Newsom will have a press conference today (tomorrow at the latest) and one of two things will happen:
  • He will release theme park guidelines and pretend that he always intended to release them at that time and accuse Disney and other theme parks of not being patient.
  • He will completely vilify Disney for laying off so many people and will fail to acknowledge that he is the reason the number is as high as it is.
I think the first one vilifies Disney, the second one could backfire in a major way, as some of the Disneyland unions have said that their members will receive notice of termination on November 1. And I think that is a political move on Disney's part, as it gives enough time for people to forget it if Newsom went this route and still enough time for Disney to vilify the Democrats before the election.

So, overall the next day or two will be interesting to see how it plays out, but one thing is clear, the layoffs are a political move and unfortunately CMs are pawns in this ultra high stakes game of chess.
 
chadwpalm

chadwpalm

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
No
el_super said:
It's unaffordable, because there is a severe housing shortage in California that needs to be (and actually is finally) being addressed. That's why you're not seeing a huge swing in population in California, which is still, by a considerable margin, the most populous state in the USCA is losing a house seat mostly due to the way apportionment works, not because of a population decline (and in fact, between the 2010 census and 2020 census, CA's population will have increased by about 6%). Apportionment is the reasons why Californian's votes weigh less in Congress.
Click to expand...

While I'd love to debate you about why there's a housing shortage, I want to address your 6% increase over 10 years. That's atrocious. Let's look at the states that Californians are allegedly (not really alleged because there are literally real-estate companies being formed to cater to people moving out of state) moving to.

2010-2019 (2020 census not complete yet):
Idaho: 13.8%
Nevada: 14.0%
Arizona: 13.6%
Texas: 14.9%

Let's look at a graph:

1601417404104.png


The green line is the annual percent change in the population of California over the past 10 years. The ratio between incoming and outgoing is shrinking.....fast. The growth between 2018 and 2019 was only 0.13%

Except for the short period of the dot com crash in the early nineties, California has always seen a yearly growth between 0.8% to 2%. For the first time in California's known history, it's dropped below 0.5%.....on Newsom's watch. If the trend continues, and I believe if the recall efforts fail and he remains for 2 more years, we should be in the negative this year or next. I also remind you, this is ALL pre-COVID. This year isn't counted yet, but I'm confident if the strict quarantines stay in effect that line will continue moving down.

I see these numbers and can only LOL at anyone saying people aren't leaving......or at the least, aren't coming in. A simple Google search will direct you to real estate blogs with real stories about people selling their homes, cashing out, and moving out.

https://www.curbed.com/2019/10/22/20921192/california-real-estate-housing-middle-class-affordable
While much of the inbound migration to Boise comes from elsewhere in Idaho, many newcomers are from high-cost metros on the west coast. Per census data, 17,000 of the roughly 80,000 new Idaho residents in 2016 came from California. According to an analysis by Realtor.com, homebuyers from 82 California ZIP codes made up 4.5 percent of the page views for Boise real estate; many of them were concentrated near the Bay Area.
Click to expand...

California is losing people at a fast clip. Between 2007 and 2016, the state lost 1 million residents who picked up and moved elsewhere in the U.S., about 2.5 percent of the state population (the state is still gaining population overall, due to births and immigration). The state lost 38,000 last year alone, part of a migration trend that’s speeding up (the state ranked 49th in total amount of domestic outmigration last year). A LinkedIn analysis of the last four years of profile data found that California professionals aged 55-64 are mostly likely to move to Phoenix, Seattle, Las Vegas, New York City, and Portland, Oregon.
Click to expand...

This is the Zillow map of my city. Five years ago you'd be lucky to find 2 or 3 homes for sale here.
1601498297793.png


The full listings of the statistics can be found here:
https://www.macrotrends.net/states/california/population
 
Mac Tonight

Mac Tonight

Well-Known Member
Housing shortage?? Everywhere I drive in town they're building new townhouse complexes on every single available inch of land that isn't needed to widen the road or for a new strip mall. I just keep wondering how many people keep actively moving here that they feel the need to keep building. Not to mention all the currently for-sale properties around here...

The saddest part of living in a SoCal suburb is that a house just sold near me for over $500,000 and it was a measely 2-bedroom at just over 1,000 sq ft. For that price, I could go to Texas, Ohio, Kentucky... etc. and get a brand-new construction 3,000+ sq ft home with land... and walk away with money in my pocket.
 
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mickEblu

mickEblu

Well-Known Member
Mac Tonight said:
Housing shortage?? Everywhere I drive in town they're building new townhouse complexes on every single available inch of land that isn't a road or new strip mall. I just keep wondering how many people keep actively moving here that they feel the need to keep building. Not to mention all the currently for-sale properties around here...



The saddest part of living in a SoCal suburb is that a house just sold near me for over $500,000 and it was a measely 2-bedroom at just over 1,000 sq ft. For that price, I could go to Texas, Ohio, Kentucky... etc. and get a brand-new construction 3,000+ sq ft home with land... and walk away with money in my pocket.
Click to expand...


Yup. In my neck of the woods, we have 1300 sq feet homes built in the 50s going for 800k
 
el_super

el_super

Well-Known Member
chadwpalm said:
I see these numbers and can only LOL at anyone saying people aren't leaving......or at the least, aren't coming in. A simple Google search will direct you to real estate blogs with real stories about people selling their homes, cashing out, and moving out.
Click to expand...

Yeah people are leaving, but they are almost immediately replaced. That's why the population has mostly still increased over the last 10 years (or if you want, as a compromise, we can agree has stayed flat compared to other states).

As noted by others, the median home price in CA is now over 700k, and people will pay it. The market doesn't lie.
 
M

MoonRakerSCM

Well-Known Member
el_super said:
Yeah people are leaving, but they are almost immediately replaced. That's why the population has mostly still increased over the last 10 years (or if you want, as a compromise, we can agree has stayed flat compared to other states).
Click to expand...
As the concept has been about people leaving CA for other states, per this article in the Sac Bee ( https://www.sacbee.com/news/databases/article236910698.html )-

"From 2015 to 2017, California saw a net loss of between 129,000 and 143,000 residents to domestic migration each year, according to census estimates. ... California has lost more people to other states than it has gained for much of the last two decades, census figures show."

Also the previous article I posted several days ago stating CA is expected to lose a congressional seat for the first time... AZ and TX expect to gain (3 for TX).
 
D

Deleted member 107043

mandelbrot said:
We've officially entered the upside-down:

www.ocregister.com

Disneyland and Universal Studios ask Newsom not to finalize theme park reopening plans just yet

The California Attractions and Parks Association asked state officials on Thursday, Oct. 1 to listen to theme park operators recommendations and modify some protocols before issuing reopening guide…
www.ocregister.com www.ocregister.com
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"Disney officials laid part of the blame for the layoffs at the feet of Newsom and his administration’s failure to issue theme park reopening guidelines.

I'm in agreement that Newsom should have established clear concise guidelines for theme parks in California by now. My hunch, though, is that whatever those guidelines end up being they will probably prohibit DLR from opening safely anytime soon.

That said I do not buy the claim that the failure to issue reopening guidelines is why Disney is laying off people. This strikes me as a ploy to win favor with Californians who aren't aware of similar layoffs at WDW, which has been open since July, and where just last week the entire state reopened and all Covid-19 restrictions were lifted, including fines for not wearing masks.
 
el_super

el_super

Well-Known Member
Dr. Hans Reinhardt said:
I'm in agreement that Newsom should have established clear concise guidelines for theme parks in California by now. My hunch, though, is that whatever those guidelines end up being they will probably prohibit DLR from opening safely anytime soon.
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Or more specifically, will prohibit DLR from being profitable returning a net positive contribution.

Newsom wasn't the hold up all along. The state had posted and removed fragments of their amusement park guidelines over the course of the last few months, so they have clearly been working on them for awhile. They had been so conspicuously absent from discussion and communication as to make it obvious now that it was intentionally being withheld by request. Disney didn't like what the experts were saying about theme parks in a pandemic.

If the rumors are true, and Disney was going to be limited to running a locals only park, it would make sense that Disney objected. They can't make money from a local audience that is already saturated with APs. Even if they could suspend the AP program, could they really convince APs to spend money on single day visits? Probably not.

I would hate to think though that other parks are going to suffer, because Disney can't reimagine their business model, or admit that filling their park with cheap APs for decades was a bad idea. The guidelines should just be accepted for being the safe and rational way forward, and if it doesn't work for Disney, so be it.
 
MisterPenguin

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
Parteecia said:
www.latimes.com

Disneyland’s push to reopen sets up critical moment in California’s coronavirus fight

Disney's blunt criticism of coronavirus restrictions is putting more pressure on Gov. Gavin Newsom and health officials at a critical moment.
www.latimes.com www.latimes.com
Click to expand...
So much has happened since yesterday morning.

Iger quit the state's pandemic task force.

Disney has seen the final guidelines and is obviously not liking them since they're now asking for them to be delayed after demanding them to be released.
 

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