Disneyland officially reopening April 30th

[CaptinEO]

They don't need them at the moment, but they will.

Why?

 

[SoCalDisneyLover]

Why?

Because they're opening more capacity over the coming weeks. After Labor Day, they will lose all the Summer travelers, kids will be going back to school, and people are going to be over paying $105+ every time to visit the park.

A half full park means half as many guests buying parking. Half as many buying food, drinks, merchandise.

Looking at the reservation availability now, and things look bad. They now have opening for a Park Hopper on Sunday July 4, starting at Disneyland. Every single day is now available for Park Hoppers.

I fully expect they'll have announced whatever program they're planning on, by Labor Day, or soon thereafter.

Edit: Looks like Sunday is gone again.

 

[CaptinEO]

Because they're opening more capacity over the coming weeks. After Labor Day, they will lose all the Summer travelers, kids will be going back to school, and people are going to be over paying $105+ every time to visit the park.

A half full park means half as many guests buying parking. Half as many buying food, drinks, merchandise.

Looking at the reservation availability now, and things look bad. They now have opening for a Park Hopper on Sunday July 4, starting at Disneyland. Every single day is now available for Park Hoppers.

I fully expect they'll have announced whatever program they're planning on, by Labor Day, or soon thereafter.

Edit: Looks like Sunday is gone again.

I'm sure they can continually lower prices if needed to adjust with demand. It serves them better to sell tickets instead of APs and keeps guests there from opening to closing.

 

[SoCalDisneyLover]

I'm sure they can continually lower prices if needed to adjust with demand. It serves them better to sell tickets instead of APs and keeps guests there from opening to closing.

Lower prices? Disney? Really?

Perhaps they'll have a deal on a multi day pass for So Cal Residents, but Disney never lowers prices. The cheapest off peak 1-Park pass is $105 I believe. It is not going lower than that.

 

[SplashGhost]

Disney is doing okay with just selling tickets right now because of tourists and pent up demand from locals that has made them willing to pay the exceedingly high prices for tickets. The amount of tourists visiting will drop off tremendously in the middle of August, and by then, most any local willing to purchase tickets instead of APs will have gone and will be holding out for the new AP program to launch. I know the anti-AP crowd won't like this, but there is no way that Disneyland can be profitable with year round operations if they don't have APs.

 

[PiratesMansion]

While the old AP program created a lot of problems, it's likely not in Disney's best interest to phase out APs forever. Pretty much the entire industry has shifted towards encouraging season/annual passes and prioritizing passholders, and there's a reason. If the AP program didn't generate revenue in a way that was beneficial for Disney, they would have been phased out or restructured long ago. Especially during the last decade, when Disney basically decided that it didn't care if the public liked its decisions or not.

Obviously, the old model wasn't perfect, and I'm sure that Disneyland would like to put some limits on how the product is used for understandable reasons. But I don't think a model without any APs at all will work long-term.

 

[Tamandua]

But I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a day not completely sell out before the actual date.

Well today is the day it seems, and a Friday on a holiday weekend as well.

 

[el_super]

I know the anti-AP crowd won't like this, but there is no way that Disneyland can be profitable with year round operations if they don't have APs.

APs are just a form of discounting, and there are a lot of discounting options between full price, and re-instating APs. Resident discounts/weekday only passes/after 4pm passes/Twofer tickets... are all still on the table.

On the other side of the coin: Disneyland can certainly be profitable year-round without APs and did so successfully for decades before they came about. If it really becomes an issue they can cut back on entertainment and park hours until they find a balance that meets the demand.

If you spend any serious time following Disney, you can tell how serious they are about making this change work, fundamentally shifting their admissions strategy, from how it keeps coming up time and time again from the execs. They mention it over and over in phone calls and interviews and simple reason is: they are talking a lot about this internally. There's zero chance they are going to give up on this and reinstate an AP program just a few months after being open.

 

[CaptinEO]

If the AP program didn't generate revenue in a way that was beneficial for Disney, they would have been phased out or restructured long ago.

They did phase them out. And before the phase out they were restructuring them.

 

[mistyj]

Disney is doing okay with just selling tickets right now because of tourists and pent up demand from locals that has made them willing to pay the exceedingly high prices for tickets. The amount of tourists visiting will drop off tremendously in the middle of August, and by then, most any local willing to purchase tickets instead of APs will have gone and will be holding out for the new AP program to launch. I know the anti-AP crowd won't like this, but there is no way that Disneyland can be profitable with year round operations if they don't have APs.

And shortly, Disney will announce whatever Halloween plans they have (no matter how small,) and all the locals will run to buy tickets again...

 

[CaptinEO]

And shortly, Disney will announce whatever Halloween plans they have (no matter how small,) and all the locals will run to buy tickets again...

Yep, and then the Holidays.

 

[SoCalDisneyLover]

I'm standing by my prediction that we'll have an announcement about the new program, by the week of Labor Day, possibly earlier.

And I can't believe nobody is talking about the fact that except for July 4th itself, the Reservation calendar is wide open, with no unavailable dates at all.

 

[el_super]

I'm standing by my prediction that we'll have an announcement about the new program, by the week of Labor Day, possibly earlier.

And I can't believe nobody is talking about the fact that except for July 4th itself, the Reservation calendar is wide open, with no unavailable dates at all.

Oh I don't doubt that they will announce something, but I don't think it will be anything similar to the AP program of old. Since they keep referring to it as a membership or loyalty program, I think it's going to be closer to a frequent flyer setup than a pre-paid admission program.

 

[SplashGhost]

I'm standing by my prediction that we'll have an announcement about the new program, by the week of Labor Day, possibly earlier.

And I can't believe nobody is talking about the fact that except for July 4th itself, the Reservation calendar is wide open, with no unavailable dates at all.

While staffing might have recently increased, this is definitely a sign that demand is lower than supply, which means they need to adjust prices.

Oh I don't doubt that they will announce something, but I don't think it will be anything similar to the AP program of old. Since they keep referring to it as a membership or loyalty program, I think it's going to be closer to a frequent flyer setup than a pre-paid admission program.

Six Flags has memberships, and they are much better than something like a frequent flyer program. You can cancel them anytime after 12 months instead of having to renew them in 12 month increments, and different levels have different benefits. Nothing about the word, membership implies that it will be a crappy loyalty type program instead of something actually good like the APs of old.

The majority of locals only went on APs and there is no way Disney is going to be willing to lower ticket prices enough to make it feasible for average people that aren't exceedingly wealthy to find the park affordable without APs. Before APs were a thing, ticket prices were much more affordable for the average person. In the time since APs were introduced, ticket prices have rose astronomically while wages have failed to even come close to keeping up with the cost of living increases over the years. I know for rich people, a world without APs is great, but for normal people, they simply can't justify Disney prices without the value of APs.

 

[PiratesMansion]

They did phase them out. And before the phase out they were restructuring them.

They have, because of covid, for now. They had to because of what played out in Tokyo when that resort tried to keep operating their program as normal. It didn't end well.

That Disney also has an opportunity to truly change the program into one more beneficial for them is an attractive bonus.

But my point was that until very, very recently they kept things as they were because ultimately it was benefiting them. Anything they did do pre-pandemic was baby steps towards change, but hardly in a way that was revolutionary or seriously affected the functioning of the program as it had been up to that point.

There was never any danger of the AP program disappearing completely and forever.

 

[SoCalDisneyLover]

While staffing might have recently increased, this is definitely a sign that demand is lower than supply, which means they need to adjust prices.

Six Flags has memberships, and they are much better than something like a frequent flyer program. You can cancel them anytime after 12 months instead of having to renew them in 12 month increments, and different levels have different benefits. Nothing about the word, membership implies that it will be a crappy loyalty type program instead of something actually good like the APs of old.

The majority of locals only went on APs and there is no way Disney is going to be willing to lower ticket prices enough to make it feasible for average people that aren't exceedingly wealthy to find the park affordable without APs. Before APs were a thing, ticket prices were much more affordable for the average person. In the time since APs were introduced, ticket prices have rose astronomically while wages have failed to even come close to keeping up with the cost of living increases over the years. I know for rich people, a world without APs is great, but for normal people, they simply can't justify Disney prices without the value of APs.

Once again, Disney Does Not Lower Prices! I'd be willing to bet anyone on that score. They may offer a ticket deal of some sort for locals, for a limited time period, which they've done before. That will help, but I'm not sure how much, and it won't match the amount of traffic AP's used to bring in. They already had these deals back when they had AP's. It's not enough.

If they are going to have some sort of Frequent Visitor/Loyalty program, like buy 10 admissions, get 1 free, then my days of visiting Disneyland on a frequent basis, are over, and my days of going to Knott's, are just beginning. That seems ridiculous, and I can't imagine they think people are going to flock to buy something like that. So I go 10 times, then get my 11th visit free. How am I going to feel then, knowing I have to start all over, and pay for another 10 visits, before getting that free one again?

With all the talk about how they're considering eliminating monthly payments, I don't see how that fits in with a Six Flags type monthly membership, which is essentially an ongoing payment plan.

It's crazy how nobody has a clue what they've got planned, but I'm sure whatever it is, they're either ready to move forward with it, or are close.

 

[Tamandua]

but I'm sure whatever it is, they're either ready to move forward with it, or are close.

 

[el_super]

Nothing about the word, membership implies that it will be a crappy loyalty type program instead of something actually good like the APs of old.

Maybe not, but Disney's insistence in referring to it by a new term, rather than the same term, implies otherwise. If they were just "re-imagining" the AP program, they wouldn't be trying to convince everyone it would be so radically different by calling it a membership/loyalty program.

My guess here is the language used, specifically avoiding calling it a "pass," is a subtle hint that it will not include park admission.

The majority of locals only went on APs and there is no way Disney is going to be willing to lower ticket prices enough to make it feasible for average people that aren't exceedingly wealthy to find the park affordable without APs.

Disney isn't trying to make the park more affordable. They aren't even trying to keep the park packed with people. They're trying to maximize their yield. They do that by offering the lowest possible discounts they can.

 

[el_super]

They have, because of covid, for now. They had to because of what played out in Tokyo when that resort tried to keep operating their program as normal. It didn't end well.

I do want to point out here that Disney started indicating that there were issues with the AP program back in 2019 (pre-Covid), when Galaxy's Edge opened. Specifically these comments from Christine McCarthy and Bob Iger during a conference call:

“The decline in attendance at Disneyland Resort was primarily driven by lower annual passholder visitation as we managed demand the first few weeks after opening Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge in order to maintain a higher level of guest satisfaction,” McCarthy said.​

​

“We know that crowding can be an issue and that when our parks are the most crowded, the guest experience is not what we would like it to be,” Iger said. “So, we’re leveraging the popularity to obviously increase pricing and to spread demand to get much more strategic about how we’re pricing.”​

​

The implication being that more APs in the park, the lower guest satisfaction is. Even with the lower attendance in 2019, revenue was up, and they have been touting the "less is more" strategy for attendance since.

These evolution of the AP program was something they were looking at before COVID.

 

[SoCalDisneyLover]

“The decline in attendance at Disneyland Resort was primarily driven by lower annual passholder visitation as we managed demand the first few weeks after opening Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge in order to maintain a higher level of guest satisfaction,” McCarthy said.

​

“We know that crowding can be an issue and that when our parks are the most crowded, the guest experience is not what we would like it to be,” Iger said. “So, we’re leveraging the popularity to obviously increase pricing and to spread demand to get much more strategic about how we’re pricing.”​

​

The implication being that more APs in the park, the lower guest satisfaction is. Even with the lower attendance in 2019, revenue was up, and they have been touting the "less is more" strategy for attendance since.

They're blaming the attendance problems in 2019 on the passholders? Rather than the fact Galaxy's Edge did not draw people like they expected it would, and that they opened it without the area's star attraction? DISNEY WERE THE ONES WHO BLOCKED OUT ALMOST EVERY ANNUAL PASS THAT SUMMER!!

What a crock of BS! Managed demand to maintain a higher level of guest satisfaction? WRONG! They managed demand, because they thought people would be coming out of the wordwork to visit Galaxy's Edge, and when it didn't materialize, they were left with a far below capacity park. Guest satisfaction might have been the result, but I doubt it was the main goal. Disney's main goal is maximizing revenue and profit. Full Stop.