News Disney world attendance down 80%??

[Touchdown]

This sounds very similar to the people who chose to believe everything would be back to normal by May of this year.

We have not even hit the second wave in this country and are doing little to mitigate things to stop one. It may realistically be late spring or summer of 2022 before things are back to normal - and the economic hit that will happen as PPP's stop, unemployment payments reduce again (or run out of the 39 weeks) the forced employee retention through Oct 2020, and the foreclosure/eviction moratoriums are lifted will be more than what most people can wrap their head around.

Not to mention what will happen this winter when we have flu and covid hitting at once and people don't want to be bothered because they are tired or confused.

A vaccine for the general population is at least a full year away from distribution. Just to MAKE the quantity needed wont be possible in a few weeks after it has been approved. US will not get first priority over all the other countries so we will be in line with everyone - billions of vaccines will be needed likely every 6-12 months.

You are painting a little too bleak of a picture, the government is already funding on multiple canidates large scale manufacturing. If the Moderna vaccine is approved, and assuming it needs 2 doses come this spring we will have roughly enough to vaccinate half of this country. If the vaccines that have received this funding is approved, we could be back to “normal” when it comes to restrictions on large gatherings and masks by summer 2021. That’s my hope at the moment.

 

[sbunit]

This sounds very similar to the people who chose to believe everything would be back to normal by May of this year.

We have not even hit the second wave in this country and are doing little to mitigate things to stop one. It may realistically be late spring or summer of 2022 before things are back to normal - and the economic hit that will happen as PPP's stop, unemployment payments reduce again (or run out of the 39 weeks) the forced employee retention through Oct 2020, and the foreclosure/eviction moratoriums are lifted will be more than what most people can wrap their head around.

Not to mention what will happen this winter when we have flu and covid hitting at once and people don't want to be bothered because they are tired or confused.

A vaccine for the general population is at least a full year away from distribution. Just to MAKE the quantity needed wont be possible in a few weeks after it has been approved. US will not get first priority over all the other countries so we will be in line with everyone - billions of vaccines will be needed likely every 6-12 months.

While all valid points, and I am in agreement that it will take close to a year to adequately vaccinate the entire population (excluding anti-vaccine crowd of course), my key point is that the government understands that they need to improve consumer confidence and just the fact that the vaccine is now available and in circulation should go a long way to start quelling the fears of the majority of the population. I've said in the past, regardless of the potency or the eficacy of the vaccine, the government just wants an approved vaccine or therapeutic out in circulation otherwise the entire world economy will implode. This way of life is just not sustainable from multiple standpoints (economic, mental, you name it, etc). Businesses cannot sustain this way of functioning long term. My prediction is once a vaccine becomes available government and businesses will begin to lighten the restrictions to bring things back to normal irrespective of where we are in terms of vaccine manufacturing or number of people vaccinated.

Any anyway who doesn't believe a vaccine will be available in the next 3-5 months is honestly just in denial or hasn't been reading the news carefully. Not only can you expect a successful vaccine (regardless of how many times you may need boosters), I am confident at least one will become available before 2021, probably to front line essential individuals first (i.e. health care workers or the elderly etc). Come spring/summer of 2021 we will be in a different place. Again, people have to realize this way of life is not sustainable and another 12-18 months of this will create irreversible significant damage to the entire world economy. Governments will not allow this to happen nor will businesses like Disney delay further than absolutely necessary.

 

[Disstevefan1]

WDW attracts many international guests. The travel bans currently in place are stopping folks from coming.

 

[denyuntilcaught]

The main reason preventing us from heading down, even with the mandatory 14 day quarantine when we return to NY, is that they're still charging full price for tickets for nowhere near the same experience. I can't believe they expect someone to pay the same price for reduced park hours, no character meals or meet and greets, and no shows or fireworks.

We really wouldn't mind walking around with masks all day, but even with the dirt cheap flights, it just doesn't make sense to spend $110+ per day on a 'light' version of the parks.

This here. I'd book a WDW trip tomorrow if the tickets (and hotel) were, say, half off. But as of now, I can hardly justify the cost of traveling across the country to the resort, let alone convince any of my friends or loved ones to join me. That, coupled with covidphobia, is too much.

 

[Djsfantasi]

Plus, it's not going to help the Mouse that they've established visitors need to prebook everything months before arrival. Even with policy changes to reduce prebooking requirements, websites and mindsets don't change quickly. I'm going to assume with COVID more people are doing basic research before deciding on a trip. Seeing if you want to experience an attraction or eat in a particular restaurant then you should've booked last month, at least historically, could assist in keeping numbers down.

Just an observation. If it takes longer than four weeks to drastically change a web site or 24-72 hours for a minor change, then something’s wrong. I ran a 24x7x365 e-commerce site similar to Disney’s which was changed every three to four weeks. A minor change was sometimes made in less than an hour.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

If they would take the 3 day reservations off and let everyone in it would be a lot better. They also need to let Cast Members back in with out being blacked out. We are local and went for our 3 days and spent over $500. Locals and AP's do spend a lot. They can easily open the parks up. We were able to walk right on every ride and didn't even need dining reservations, BOG, Rose & Crown, Le Cellier, & Tiffins. So spending even $50 per day would help the parks and tips for the waiters. It would be better than nothing.

Honest question: do you believe Disney considers $500 over 3 days a lot?

I stated before I wish there could be educational awareness starting in high school to teach kids the importance of saving investing and compounding interest ( But that would not fuel the economy the way businesses would like ) But it's a spend spend fuel the economy , being slaves to debt mindset for some.

Seems kinda “mind over matter” when the hammer that often smacks people over the head is definitely “matter”.

Hi Mom and Dad, I need 1K for a new phone and $100 a mo plan so I can insta my friends.
In my day that was a car so I could go work

Just a tad stereotypical and not an indicator of societal economic realities.

WDW attracts many international guests. The travel bans currently in place are stopping folks from coming.

It’s a segment...however the big one missing is the US domestic market outside of locals. No need to go deeper than that.

 

[MurphyJoe]

Just an observation. If it takes longer than four weeks to drastically change a web site or 24-72 hours for a minor change, then something’s wrong. I ran a 24x7x365 e-commerce site similar to Disney’s which was changed every three to four weeks. A minor change was sometimes made in less than an hour.

I wasn't thinking of the official website, but of the large fansite ecosystem which has sprung up surrounding it. Everything from old forum postings, blog entries, to informational pages with outdated information is going to come up with a web search. None of which helps gate clicks and hotel bookings.

 

[techgeek]

We are local and went for our 3 days and spent over $500. Locals and AP's do spend a lot.

Honest question: do you believe Disney considers $500 over 3 days a lot?

That's ok, I'm dragging down the average for AP spending to even it out. We were in MK for a few hours the other day and spent exactly 1 dole whip float's worth in the park.

 

[Parker in NYC]

I never said they did not care about me. This thread was about attendance and all I was saying is Disney is not letting all who wants in to the parks, into the parks. The 80 percent reduction in attendance is by design and and caused by the CCP virus, not for lack of want or interest.

Wait, what's the CCP virus? Something else going around?

EDIT: Of course. What else should I expect.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You are painting a little too bleak of a picture, the government is already funding on multiple canidates large scale manufacturing. If the Moderna vaccine is approved, and assuming it needs 2 doses come this spring we will have roughly enough to vaccinate half of this country. If the vaccines that have received this funding is approved, we could be back to “normal” when it comes to restrictions on large gatherings and masks by summer 2021. That’s my hope at the moment.

Politics has also REALLY started influencing “the message” about the response.

Which everyone with a brain knew was gonna happen in the fall from the start.

This latest today “cdc says you may not have to be tested after exposure”...is just beyond dumb. Why would that make any damn sense??

No REAL reason.

Anyway...not to go back to that well...I’m just saying any mixed message or nonchalant takes are gonna keep travel frozen.

Nope...not getting that big money crowd until the non-experts aren’t in front of the microphone.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Politics has also REALLY started influencing “the message” about the response.

Which everyone with a brain knew was gonna happen in the fall from the start.

I can show you examples of it starting on Feb. 18, 2020. But I know what you mean.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I can show you examples of it starting on Feb. 18, 2020. But I know what you mean.

Im trying NOT to get you started, kid

 

[Parker in NYC]

Im trying NOT to get you started, kid

I've been better this last week. A continued bar from the main thread has thrown a wrench into my rage. Still, it's been entertaining watching new accounts pop up whenever someone gets the boot. Surely, others haven't received the message with grace.

 

[Kingoglow]

Any anyway who doesn't believe a vaccine will be available in the next 3-5 months is honestly just in denial or hasn't been reading the news carefully. Not only can you expect a successful vaccine (regardless of how many times you may need boosters), I am confident at least one will become available before 2021, probably to front line essential individuals first (i.e. health care workers or the elderly etc). Come spring/summer of 2021 we will be in a different place. Again, people have to realize this way of life is not sustainable and another 12-18 months of this will create irreversible significant damage to the entire world economy. Governments will not allow this to happen nor will businesses like Disney delay further than absolutely necessary.

I am with you on timing of an FDA emergency/fast track approval of a successful vaccine. I don't think our healthcare system is ready to vaccinate everyone right away though. I expect it will be June/July 2021 before I have the opportunity to get vaccinated. So perhaps businesses (Disney) can start to think about increasing capacity the second half of next year.

After that the world population will have to watch out for potential side effects of the fast track process and work to cure those. Then we will have to wait to see if COVID-19 mutates next year beyond what the vaccine was designed for. Long story short, governments, business owners and Disney will all have a difficult and uncertain road to travel for the next three years; beyond the landscape of unemployment in the US.

 

[Thelazer]

Case count is trending down, we know there is a segment of the population that is already immune or has a strong immune response to this from fighting other viruses. Thus, the idea that 50% or 60% or etc, needs to have the vaccine to have any effect isn't accurate.

I suspect you'll see that once the vaccine is rolling out, it will NOT take long at all, for cases to drop to the point that this thing dies right out.

 

[Czar63]

I fully and wholeheartedly agree. But I predict all that will be restored by late spring or early summer 2021. I can't see Disney going through another fiscal year or "busy season" like this. They know they have to restore everything you've mentioned to regain the attendance level required to meet profitability margins. This is not sustainable for Disney. Once the vaccine hits the market Disney will start shifting gear soon after

Yes - once vaccine is out there all will start to return to normal. Even IF I were to go parks now it simply is not worth it to pay full price for tickets and not get all park benefits we are accustomed to. We pay too much as it is. Looking forward to going on our annual trips again. This will be first time in 25 years we will not be at WDW for an entire year (or more)...Ugh!

 

[marni1971]

Second wave.

That’s all I’ll say.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Case count is trending down, we know there is a segment of the population that is already immune or has a strong immune response to this from fighting other viruses. Thus, the idea that 50% or 60% or etc, needs to have the vaccine to have any effect isn't accurate.

I suspect you'll see that once the vaccine is rolling out, it will NOT take long at all, for cases to drop to the point that this thing dies right out.

Nope...the rest is fine...but you threw some march/April wishing thinking up in this piece.

 

[easyrowrdw]

Nope...the rest is fine...but you threw some match/April wishing thinking up in this piece.

I don't think it's wishful thinking. That's the T cell idea. I've yet to see it as definitive, but I haven't seen it as refuted either.

 

[GoofGoof]

Case count is trending down, we know there is a segment of the population that is already immune or has a strong immune response to this from fighting other viruses. Thus, the idea that 50% or 60% or etc, needs to have the vaccine to have any effect isn't accurate.

I suspect you'll see that once the vaccine is rolling out, it will NOT take long at all, for cases to drop to the point that this thing dies right out.

I share your optimism on the vaccine front. One of the challenges that needs to be solved right now is the logistics of getting the vaccines to the providers to vaccinate people and storing it. A clip from the article attached shows some of the challenges around temperature. I imagine coordinating this and ensuring there’s enough freezer capacity to deliver the vaccine to places where it can be distributed is a challenge and those locations that receive the vaccine have t9 have the capacity to store it. Lots of logistics beyond just getting a vaccine that works. I have confidence corporate America will figure this out between big pharma and shipping and healthcare companies (UPS, FedEx, CVS, etc). I have less faith in the government helping out other than writing some checks.

DEEP FREEZE
Companies and health officials also are working on ways to distribute COVID-19 vaccines, some of which must be shipped and stored at extremely cold temperatures.
Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, questioned Pfizer's plans after the company said its vaccine must be stored at ultra-low temperatures for up to 6 months or in specially designed shipping containers for up to 10 days.
Once removed from the containers, the vaccine can be kept for up to a day at a temperatures between 2 and 8 degrees Celsius (36-46°F) - roughly the temperature of a normal refrigerator - or 2 hours at room temperature.

The complexities of this plan for vaccine storage and handling will have major impact in our ability to efficiently deliver the vaccine," Messonnier said.
Pfizer told the CDC panel it is working on making the vaccine stable at higher temperatures. Pfizer shares were down about 1.5%.
Moderna's vaccine has to be kept at minus 20 degrees Celsius for shipping and longer-term storage of up to six months, but it can be kept at regular refrigeration temperatures for up to 10 days. The vaccine will be distributed in 10-dose vials with no preservatives, the company said.
Moderna is also working to make the vaccine stable at higher temperatures, Miller said.

https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2020-08-26/modernas-covid-19-vaccine-shows-similar-immune-response-in-old-and-young