News Disney world attendance down 80%??

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I don't think it's wishful thinking. That's the T cell idea. I've yet to see it as definitive, but I haven't seen it as refuted either.
The problem with everyone of these “quick recovery” posts...as I see it...is efficacy.

Nothing is quick in medicine. Decreeing resumption in normal life in 6-9 months seems wishful thinking.

May work out...but nobody is close to “point to the date” at all.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I share your optimism on the vaccine front. One of the challenges that needs to be solved right now is the logistics of getting the vaccines to the providers to vaccinate people and storing it. A clip from the article attached shows some of the challenges around temperature. I imagine coordinating this and ensuring there’s enough freezer capacity to deliver the vaccine to places where it can be distributed is a challenge and those locations that receive the vaccine have t9 have the capacity to store it. Lots of logistics beyond just getting a vaccine that works. I have confidence corporate America will figure this out between big pharma and shipping and healthcare companies (UPS, FedEx, CVS, etc). I have less faith in the government helping out other than writing some checks.

DEEP FREEZE
Companies and health officials also are working on ways to distribute COVID-19 vaccines, some of which must be shipped and stored at extremely cold temperatures.
Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, questioned Pfizer's plans after the company said its vaccine must be stored at ultra-low temperatures for up to 6 months or in specially designed shipping containers for up to 10 days.
Once removed from the containers, the vaccine can be kept for up to a day at a temperatures between 2 and 8 degrees Celsius (36-46°F) - roughly the temperature of a normal refrigerator - or 2 hours at room temperature.

The complexities of this plan for vaccine storage and handling will have major impact in our ability to efficiently deliver the vaccine," Messonnier said.
Pfizer told the CDC panel it is working on making the vaccine stable at higher temperatures. Pfizer shares were down about 1.5%.
Moderna's vaccine has to be kept at minus 20 degrees Celsius for shipping and longer-term storage of up to six months, but it can be kept at regular refrigeration temperatures for up to 10 days. The vaccine will be distributed in 10-dose vials with no preservatives, the company said.
Moderna is also working to make the vaccine stable at higher temperatures, Miller said.

This is an excellent article.

Two questions:
1. Think pharma is gonna spend a dime on the logistics described herein?
2. Think there’s even close to enough focus/funds being spent by public “officials” to ramp up for this? ...they were warned to do this six months ago.

I bet a resounding “no-ski” to both.
 

Castmbr

Active Member
Vaccine 🤣... Good luck on getting 100% compliance there if they do miraculously come up with a vaccine for this strain of virus.
 

sbunit

Active Member
Not even close

Agreed that there will be minimal to moderate compliance probably at best, but why is it so hard to fathom that there won't be a vaccine and one relatively soon? It's really not so miraculous as some people are describing it. They've been studying Coronavirus for years. SarsCovid19 is a novel STRAIN, not a novel virus. Big difference people.
 

GimpYancIent

Well-Known Member
Agreed that there will be minimal to moderate compliance probably at best, but why is it so hard to fathom that there won't be a vaccine and one relatively soon? It's really not so miraculous as some people are describing it. They've been studying Coronavirus for years. SarsCovid19 is a novel STRAIN, not a novel virus. Big difference people.
Everybody seems to be agreeing to the fact there will be no 100% compliance by the public if and when a vaccine is available. That no vaccine is 100% effective. That the masking, social distancing, hand cleansing and surface sanitizing are also not 100% complied with, but, cumulatively do reduce the spread. With all that said, humans are interactive and social creatures that need to get out, do things and live not just exist. All those illnesses that existed before COVID19, they are still with us! People adapted and continued on with living, this will be no different.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Agreed that there will be minimal to moderate compliance probably at best, but why is it so hard to fathom that there won't be a vaccine and one relatively soon? It's really not so miraculous as some people are describing it. They've been studying Coronavirus for years. SarsCovid19 is a novel STRAIN, not a novel virus. Big difference people.
Who has been studying coronavirus for years? Did every major pharma company in the world drop everything they were doing to focus on a vaccine for SARS which vanished completely or MERS which is rare? What money was there in a vaccine for the common cold? If you understand how r&d works there has been very limited money spent on research of coronavirus because there was no money to be made. The research done was academic and done primarily by non-profits. That’s why the Oxford group had a leg up since they were already far along on research into a MERS vaccine. One of the biggest road blocks for them with MERS is that it was difficult to test due to the rarity of outbreaks. They have no such issue today with Covid.

The point is that just because nobody has created a vaccine for a coronavirus in the past doesn’t mean it’s not possible. It’s not like there was a major effort to create one and it just kept failing. The world has never made even a half hearted attempt at a coronavirus vaccine. Now all of the resources of almost all of the world are being directed at this. It’s a totally different situation.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Everybody seems to be agreeing to the fact there will be no 100% compliance by the public if and when a vaccine is available. That no vaccine is 100% effective. That the masking, social distancing, hand cleansing and surface sanitizing are also not 100% complied with, but, cumulatively do reduce the spread. With all that said, humans are interactive and social creatures that need to get out, do things and live not just exist. All those illnesses that existed before COVID19, they are still with us! People adapted and continued on with living, this will be no different.
Without a vaccine WDW won’t be back to normal for years. This idea that everyone is going to accept that Covid is with us and just go back to normal pre-Covid life is a pipe dream. Without advances in treatment or a vaccine life will stay difficult for a much longer time. Disney has pretty deep pockets so most likely could survive that, but a lot of other businesses can’t. The worldwide depression that sets in will last years. The best hope for a return to normal life is a vaccine.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Agreed that there will be minimal to moderate compliance probably at best, but why is it so hard to fathom that there won't be a vaccine and one relatively soon? It's really not so miraculous as some people are describing it. They've been studying Coronavirus for years. SarsCovid19 is a novel STRAIN, not a novel virus. Big difference people.
It really doesn’t matter...

The minute this went away from science - near day one - this became a game of semantics.

I tend to be pretty “go with it”...and certainly trust research, numbers and science...but i have zero intension of going for this.

Perception is reality in this case...and the way this has been handled has been yet another in a long line of Made in the USA blunders...messaging has been off.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Without a vaccine WDW won’t be back to normal for years. This idea that everyone is going to accept that Covid is with us and just go back to normal pre-Covid life is a pipe dream. Without advances in treatment or a vaccine life will stay difficult for a much longer time. Disney has pretty deep pockets so most likely could survive that, but a lot of other businesses can’t. The worldwide depression that sets in will last years. The best hope for a return to normal life is a vaccine.
Agree...

Though I think the depression is guaranteed...even with a vaccine. The money men will slash and burn jobs and overhead like fools now no matter what. It’s an “opportunity”.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Agree...

Though I think the depression is guaranteed...even with a vaccine. The money men will slash and burn jobs and overhead like fools now no matter what. It’s an “opportunity”.
The economic fallout will be pretty bad either way, but the length and severity can be reduced with a vaccine. There will likely be permanent changes to certain industries either way.
 

sbunit

Active Member
Everybody seems to be agreeing to the fact there will be no 100% compliance by the public if and when a vaccine is available. That no vaccine is 100% effective. That the masking, social distancing, hand cleansing and surface sanitizing are also not 100% complied with, but, cumulatively do reduce the spread. With all that said, humans are interactive and social creatures that need to get out, do things and live not just exist. All those illnesses that existed before COVID19, they are still with us! People adapted and continued on with living, this will be no different.

well said
 

sbunit

Active Member
The economic fallout will be pretty bad either way, but the length and severity can be reduced with a vaccine. There will likely be permanent changes to certain industries either way.

yes this summarizes the key points. There will be economic damage but the vaccine will stop the bleeding. I except some permanent changes like we saw after 9/11 but I truly feel that once we have a vaccine and therapeutics we will be very close to back to normal. I’ve said it a bunch of times, this way of life is not sustainable from a mental health, cultural and economic standpoint for anyone, any industry and any country. Vaccine is coming (soon) and we will start to change course back to our accustomed way of living and start fixing the economic damage that has been incurred as a result of this pandemic.

everyone here will be back to their cupcakes Mickey waffles and dole whips sooner than you think.
 

Herdman

Well-Known Member
This sounds very similar to the people who chose to believe everything would be back to normal by May of this year.

We have not even hit the second wave in this country and are doing little to mitigate things to stop one. It may realistically be late spring or summer of 2022 before things are back to normal - and the economic hit that will happen as PPP's stop, unemployment payments reduce again (or run out of the 39 weeks) the forced employee retention through Oct 2020, and the foreclosure/eviction moratoriums are lifted will be more than what most people can wrap their head around.

Not to mention what will happen this winter when we have flu and covid hitting at once and people don't want to be bothered because they are tired or confused.

A vaccine for the general population is at least a full year away from distribution. Just to MAKE the quantity needed wont be possible in a few weeks after it has been approved. US will not get first priority over all the other countries so we will be in line with everyone - billions of vaccines will be needed likely every 6-12 months.
Well that's certainly a ray of sunshine...:D:D:D
 
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