I personally do not think they will be able to support their fares with 8 ships but I would assume (hope?) they’ve studied this in depth and concluded otherwise with data to inform some sort of strategic plan.
But, this company has management who live quarter-to-quarter, so you’ll have to pardon me for fearing that hasn’t happened and Chapek just bought a huge ship as a vanity project that would be his legacy (had he not promptly been fired).
The 8th isn’t meant for American markets. So that does nothing.
With the Wish in Florida during the summer, they moved the Dream to the very expensive European market (effectively adding a second Magic to Europe. Then they retained the Magic in Florida.
The Treasure will push one of the larger ships out west, replacing the Wonder, which will go to Australia, an entirely new market.
So in terms of existing markets, they’re adding one Magic to Europe and one Wonder out West, and two big ships to Florida, which is the same expansion as when they added the Dream and Fantasy.
They wouldn’t have built Lighthouse Point and their Fort Lauderdale port if they were planning on going back down to 5 ships (ignoring the Asia exclusive).
Castaway could’ve easily handled an extra ship (compared to 4) if they retired Magic and Wonder. That’s not what they’re doing. Not in the short term, and not in the medium term. They might 15-20+ years, but it’s hardly imminent.
The Dream going to Europe has made those cruises, especially verandahs, incredibly more affordable. Big win in my book.
They were initially only adding two ships, but they clearly saw the growth potential and added an extra.
The 8th ship is a different story, but it seems Disney deems it too good of an opportunity to fail. Minimal risk super high potential reward. Buying the ship seems like some Michael Eisner craziness, but should be a separate product in a completely different and new market.
