News Disney to heavily reduce Capital Expenditures in the parks throughout 2020 during COVID-19 crisis

[MisterPenguin]

Did Avatar and FoP bring more bodies into WDW, or just bring more bodies over into AK??

Yes, attendance for DAK in 2017 was up 15% over 2016. And attendance in 2018 was up 10% over 2017.

All the other parks for WDW and Universal in that same time frame went up about 1-5% (with the exception of DHS which went down half a percent in 2017 and then up 5% in 2018).

Figures for 2019 should be coming out the beginning of June.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So what effect will this have on the 50th anniversary projects which is coming up pretty quick

I still don’t believe I saw proof there were any?

Certainly the horse spoke not a word of it

So, that's essentially the exact info I transmitted back on March 24th. I would say my contacts were rock solid on that one.

What's Still On and What's Now Off

I know I said I wouldn't be posting anything during the pandemic, but I received some information about the severity of cuts coming for projects at WDW. I thought I'd make a brief post about that, although there are much more important issues in the world today. I likely won't be checking in...

forums.wdwmagic.com

Take a victory lap, big boy...ya deserve it

I selfishly hope this saves SSE from the “Little Golden Books storytime makeover,” but today’s earnings report is also terrible news for the hundreds of thousands of CMs worldwide. I hope the company can bounce back quickly.

Do the employees get a cut of the stock price or revenues? That must be a new policy

There was no evidence prior to this to suggest the 50th was ever going to be a big deal. It was mostly fanboi fantasy.

B I N G O

...there’s gonna be a party to celebrate all the new stuff for the “50th” at the Brazil Pavilion...or in Star Wars land phase 2

 

[doctornick]

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a Grand Theft Auto t-shirt, tv show, movie or could I name a character in that franchise but I’ve seen a ton of Nintendo IPs. Mario and Pikachu are right up there with Mickey for most well known fictional characters on the planet. What’s the grand theft auto version of Pokémon Go?

But that goes back to my point. In the US (again, I'm not talking about globally or more specifically in Japan where Nintendo is definitely massive), I don't think Nintendo properties are as big as some other media franchises. To your point, no I don't see a whole lot of Nintendo branded stuff (toys, shirts, bedsheets, whatever). I don't see Nintendo costumes nearly as often on Halloween as other franchises.

Again, I'm not saying I've never seen anyone wearing a Mario shirt - I certainly have plenty of times - but I see Star Wars, Potter, Marvel/DC superheroes, princesses, etc all much more frequently. I do see Pokemon stuff more though but that's not coming in the first wave for Uni I don't think.

My point is that I'm not sure that Ninento has the breadth of interest that you find in other IPs. There is certainly a core group that is very loyal but I tend to think it isn't as large/widespread - especially in that there doesn't seem to be the sheer number of casuals as with other properties.

All this is anecdotal and IMHO. I've actually been curious to see how the reaction is when it opens at USF. I do think there's the potential there for some awesome rides though, so it wouldn't surprise me to see a very well received land if done properly.

 

[Frank the Tank]

The majority of people I know with younger kids go with the switch. I have no idea the sales numbers but Mario and Zelda stuff is pretty popular with kids, and while this is just my personal observation, I would say kids are way more into that than Star Wars.

Eh - I wouldn't go that far. We have a household where Star Wars, Harry Potter, Marvel, Disney/Pixar *and* Nintendo are all big to our kids and their friends (to the point where our Switch may melt pretty soon due to its constant use during this pandemic), but in terms of IP strength, Marvel is really the only IP that has the broad-based level of strength as Star Wars with the kids from my observation while Harry Potter is right behind them. Just as we talk about a "Disney lifestyle" here, there are also more widespread "lifestyles" associated with Star Wars, Marvel and Harry Potter that I don't believe really exist with even the most popular Nintendo IP outside of a hardcore fan base. Now, Universal could certainly create an absolutely mind-blowing Mario Kart ride that combines very valuable IP with state-of-the-art technology. To be very clear as someone that has spent probably thousands of hours playing Mario Kart going from its Super Nintendo version up to the current Switch version, I'm completed excited by that prospect. However, if you're talking strictly about the value of the IP itself to multiple generations, then Star Wars is in a class alone (even beyond Marvel). Whether Disney has been able to deliver on maximizing the value of the Star Wars IP in its theme parks is a very different matter.

 

[Tavernacle12]

Wii Sports at 82 million is the top selling Nintendo game (not counting Tetris). However there are 6 Nintendo titles in the top 10 best selling of all time, curious to hear why you think a set of IPs that have been popular not only in video games, but also TV, comics and even movies (even though they are mostly bad, Dectective Pickachu aside) can’t beat a series that at the time of opening was only known by its books and movies.

Mario is likely more beloved overall than Harry Potter (I'm assuming you are referring to Harry Potter) but Harry Potter is a very... how do I put this... 'personal' property. People want to go to Hogwarts and meet the characters and explore Hogsmeade and be a wizard and get lost in that world. I adore Mario but people don't generally wish they could visit the Mushroom Kingdom (they do wish they could play real like Mario Kart, though so maybe it'll even out).

 

[A Noble Fish]

As you mentioned, the real question is which park gets cannibalized. When Hogsmeade opened, IoA attendance grew YoY by 28.5%. For the rest of Orlando, MK grew by 1%, Epcot stayed flat, DHS grew at less than 1%, DAK grew by 1%, USF grew by 7%, and SeaWorld shrunk by 12%. When Pandora opened, DAK attendance grew 12%. Elsewhere, MK grew by less than 0.5%, Epcot grew by 4%, DHS shrunk by 0.5%, USF grew by 2% (with the addition of Jimmy Fallon), IoA grew by 2%, and SeaWorld shrunk by 10%. USF & IoA also had a semi-third park open with Volcano Bay. I could continue the comparisons all day, but the data is similar for other time periods so I will make some generalizations. Universal tends to not cannibalize themself and actually lift sister parks, Disney tends to not cannibalize themself but does not lift sister parks, and SeaWorld is where the cannibalization is occurring. How much farther SeaWorld can be cannibalized is unknown, but Universal tends to be in the best shape for these battles.

I've always said that SeaWorld's real Blackfish was Potter.

Not that it didn't have an impact, but Potter was not a rising tide for all ships. It pulled out those remaining 'extra' days on a Disney trip.

 

[A Noble Fish]

None of Asia was open. But they did have the boats around Safari Village...

Animal Kingdom was a terrible park when it opened. It just was pretty had, but a good foundation unlike DCA, Walt Disney Studios or even Hollywood Studios, but extremely underbuilt with only 2 rides. It's now one of the best par's in the world through natural, high-quality additions that are always within theme. Contrast that to EPCOT and it has arguably never been worse. Well, early 2000's was pretty bad too without Soarin' or Mission: Space, or heck, even Nemo.

 

[Mickey5150]

I think that you are vastly under valuing the Nintendo IP, which is not 1 IP like Toy Story but is a brand with multiple IPs like Marvel or even Disney itself. Of these family of IPs you have a trio of surefire groups that will almost certainly be massive hits:

Mario-the one everyone thinks about and the one poised to be the first land as he should, but he is not all that Nintendo owns

Zelda-the top selling adventure game of all time, this brand awareness is at an all time high due to the recent release of Breath of the Wild (and a sequel is on the way) as Disney well knows, high fantasy in theme parks is a major crowd pleaser. Universal will likely be looking into this franchise next after Mario gets off the ground.

Pokemon: This is the ace in the hole, this is the top selling brand of all time. It’s translation into theme parks is not as cut and dry as Mario and Zelda but even if it’s just meet and greets and merch it will still sell like hot cakes

Outside of those three IPs who could support lands themselves Nintendo has other IPs that are popular enough to support a ride:

-Donkey Kong
-Splatoon
-Metroid
-Kirby

Nintendo is the most beloved video game company of all time, and has the potential to be bigger then Harry Potter or Star Wars.

Make it Sega World and I'll show up. Nintendo, meh.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Wait. People didn't flock to a zoo advertised as being not a zoo?!

But that wasn’t the issue...they market saturated and hit the “labor” wall that exists on long duration travel and has gotten worse over the years.

 

[WEDway Inc & Company LLC]

I hope they are reasonable and do a 50/50-ish split on cuts between EPCOT's updates and Walt Disney Studios Park Park in Paris. Maybe cut out Mary Poopins, Spaceship Earth refurb, and cheap out on the egg at EPCOT, and then cut A.S.S and the Mini-Galaxy's Edge from WDSP

 

[UNCgolf]

Wii Sports at 82 million is the top selling Nintendo game (not counting Tetris). However there are 6 Nintendo titles in the top 10 best selling of all time, curious to hear why you think a set of IPs that have been popular not only in video games, but also TV, comics and even movies (even though they are mostly bad, Dectective Pickachu aside) can’t beat a series that at the time of opening was only known by its books and movies.

Wii Sports and Wii Fit barely count in this conversation (I'm pretty sure Wii Sports was a pack-in, so it didn't really sell 82 million copies the same way Super Mario Brothers didn't really sell 50 million copies). They're not IPs that can be leveraged into anything.

The Harry Potter series is the best selling book series of all-time (over 500 million copies). It's also one of the most successful movie series of all time. Both of those things are more important from an IP standpoint than video games, even now (although video games continue to grow). Pokemon is the outlier, as it is incredibly successful from a merchandising standpoint. That alone isn't necessarily helpful without context, though, because there are a lot of mega fans who spend thousands and thousands of dollars on Pokemon merchandise every year. It's hard to know how much reach it actually has beyond a specific subset of rabid fans. I know I personally see far more HP related stuff on any given day than I do Pokemon in a major US city (I rarely see Pokemon at all), but that's anecdotal and not really useful. As you said, though, Pokemon has also been pretty successful with TV cartoons etc. which makes it more valuable than something like Mario.

It's not a knock on Nintendo; it's just a reality when it comes to video game IPs. Nintendo is almost definitely the most valuable from an IP standpoint (Minecraft possibly excluded), but video games just aren't as big a deal as some other IPs.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I hope they are reasonable and do a 50/50-ish split on cuts between EPCOT's updates and Walt Disney Studios Park Park in Paris. Maybe cut out Mary Poopins, Spaceship Earth refurb, and cheap out on the egg at EPCOT, and then cut A.S.S and the Mini-Galaxy's Edge from WDSP

I’m guessing 100% on both that when analyzed aren’t already considered “sunk costs”

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Wii Sports and Wii Fit barely count in this conversation (I'm pretty sure Wii Sports was a pack-in, so it didn't really sell 82 million copies the same way Super Mario Brothers didn't really sell 50 million copies). They're not IPs that can be leveraged into anything.

The Harry Potter series is the best selling book series of all-time (over 500 million copies). It's also one of the most successful movie series of all time. Both of those things are more important from an IP standpoint than video games, even now (although video games continue to grow). Pokemon is the outlier, as it is incredibly successful from a merchandising standpoint. That alone isn't necessarily helpful without context, though, because there are a lot of mega fans who spend thousands and thousands of dollars on Pokemon merchandise every year. It's hard to know how much reach it actually has beyond a specific subset of rabid fans. I know I personally see far more HP related stuff on any given day than I do Pokemon in a major US city (I rarely see Pokemon at all), but that's anecdotal and not really useful. As you said, though, Pokemon has also been pretty successful with TV cartoons etc. which makes it more valuable than something like Mario.

It's not a knock on Nintendo; it's just a reality when it comes to video game IPs. Nintendo is almost definitely the most valuable from an IP standpoint (Minecraft possibly excluded), but video games just aren't as big a deal as some other IPs.

I was gonna mention that...wii sports shipped with every unit

 

[UNCgolf]

My point is that I'm not sure that Ninento has the breadth of interest that you find in other IPs. There is certainly a core group that is very loyal but I tend to think it isn't as large/widespread - especially in that there doesn't seem to be the sheer number of casuals as with other properties.

This is my belief as well. There's a lot of very loyal support, but not nearly the breadth of casual interest that other IPs have.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

This is my belief as well. There's a lot of very loyal support, but not nearly the breadth of casual interest that other IPs have.

Currently?

Maybe not...but Nintendo has a strong pull across 3 generations back to 1985. Its smart to cater to that kinda “layering”

 

[UNCgolf]

Another factor to consider when looking at sales for stuff like Mario is that it's often the same people buying each version of the game. So you could see 300 million total sales across the life of the IP, but that's not 300 million unique sales. Call of Duty is a great example, because it often sells 20+ million copies every year, but it's generally the exact same people who bought it the year before. So you have a user base of 25 or so million, not the 150 million or however it would look if you just aggregated them all.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Another factor to consider when looking at sales for stuff like Mario is that it's often the same people buying each version of the game. So you could see 300 million total sales across the life of the IP, but that's not 300 million unique sales. Call of Duty is a great example, because it often sells 20+ million copies every year, but it's generally the exact same people who bought it the year before. So you have a user base of 25 or so million, not the 150 million or however it would look if you just aggregated them all.

Good point...

...if only I could think of a movie franchise where that happens?

 

[UNCgolf]

Currently?

Maybe not...but Nintendo has a strong pull across 3 generations back to 1985. Its smart to cater to that kinda “layering”

Oh, I absolutely think Nintendo is valuable for Universal. I expect it to be a big success. I just don't think it's comparable to IPs like Star Wars and Harry Potter in terms of overall interest. Video games are a niche compared to books and movies -- especially back in the 1980s and 1990s; less so today. It's much easier/more likely for someone to watch a couple of movies and become a fan of an IP than it is for someone to spend the money to buy a video game system and a game that they weren't already interested in.

 

[UNCgolf]

Good point...

...if only I could think of a movie franchise where that happens?

It definitely happens with movies as well, but big hit movies typically sell more tickets than video game purchases. Plus people end up watching movies on TV, on Netflix, etc.

Just based on general numbers, there are probably 2-3 people who have seen a Star Wars movie (not that that means they're a fan or even liked it, but they'd have more familiarity with the IP) for every one who has played a Mario game. And that estimate might be low.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Oh, I absolutely think Nintendo is valuable for Universal. I expect it to be a big success. I just don't think it's comparable to IPs like Star Wars and Harry Potter in terms of overall interest. Video games are a niche compared to books and movies -- especially back in the 1980s and 1990s. Less so today. It's much easier/more likely for someone to watch a couple of movies and become a fan of an IP than it is for someone to spend the money to buy a video game system and a game that they weren't already interested in.

I think it will do well...a strong foundation for that park

But I think a lot of that parks appeal will be where else they get their idea from? What else is planned.

I will say that there is a stark contrast - to me - between the environment/popularity in potterland and what I saw in Anaheim.

I’d say Disney earned more laurels with pandora...which doesn’t support the “bigger franchise” theory