…you mad, bro?Crash and burn you miserable gaggle of money-worshiping maggots! After decades of faithful attendance and brand patronage, you thank me and millions of others like me with a gigantic middle finger. So now I will celebrate your every failure, chuckle at every revenue loss and cheer loudly as you circle the bowl like a truck stop turd. I would have never dreamed in a million years I would be driven to feel this way about the Disney organization.
I've been trying keep quiet about this, but I just can't help it.
In March of 2021 quarterly earnings were .32 per share and the share price was $203. That's a P/E of about 160, historically a normal P/E is 20 or so. If you bought the entire company for that price it would take you 160 YEARS to earn your money back. !!! What is that, 5 generations to break even?
The question is not "why has the stock dropped". The question is how did it ever get so high?
November 2022 quarterly earnings were .30, stock price $100. The P/E is still 83. WAY too high.
Would you go to the bank and buy a CD that promises to return your money in 83 years with no interest paid? The only reason to buy this thing is because you expect to sell it to someone else for even more.
So you’re basically saying that it’s hurting based on speculation - not actual performance/assets?Pre-pandemic though the company was worth more than 85 dollars a share and the P/E ratio was 'fine'. The issue is the company has a solid underlying business that hasn't dissapeared (entertainment is weaker, but the parks are stronger) and a tech upstart (D+) grafted on. D+ cash burn has totally ruined the valuation, once the market decided valuation was what mattered in a higher interest environment and not future 'potential'.
The market got overly excited by the whole D+ thing in 2020/21, now its totally turned on it and swung the company in the opposite direction.
The truth of the matter is the company is probably undervalued right now. The current P/E ratio is falsely driven up against the major business fundamentals of launching direct to consumer. If D+ was just suddenly cancelled tomorrow, we return to 2019-ish numbers. Ignoring the fact the markets would have a total freak out if they did something so unpredictable. It would also achieve that if D+ starts breaking even. It will be worth more if D+ is profitable.
It comes down to whether you think any of those things will or won't happen. Also on what timeframe they can happen. If D+ starts breaking even in 2024, the stock price will respond accordingly.
Exactly. A perfect example is the very fact that Netflix currently has a market cap of just slightly less than TWDC. On no planet does that make logical or financial sense.So you’re basically saying that it’s hurting based on speculation - not actual performance/assets?
…which is EXACTLY why stocks shouldn’t be horse traded in the first place. And why it doesn’t fit DIS.
And that’s Iger. Plain and simple. They can blame the idiot chapek all they want…but he did NOTHING in this scenario.
I get that TWDC is more then Disney+ but Wall Street doesn't see it that way right now. It seems that the stock is mostly based on how well Disney+ does. In way that makes sense as many here have said that the board looks at the parks as place for Carnies.Exactly. A perfect example is the very fact that Netflix currently has a market cap of just slightly less than TWDC. On no planet does that make logical or financial sense.
Iger and the board wanted to be viewed as more of a tech company, and all those sweet valuation multipliers.I get that TWDC is more then Disney+ but Wall Street doesn't see it that way right now. It seems that the stock is mostly based on how well Disney+ does. In way that makes sense as many here have said that the board looks at the parks as place for Carnies.
It looks good on them. Prior to Covid the parks were in good shape minus needing more capacity. Since then they have completely changed the parks and made them worse.Iger and the board wanted to be viewed as more of a tech company, and all those sweet valuation multipliers.
Congratulations, they got their wish.
Fell in lock step with the rest of the market? It’s been one of the worst performing over the last year.The P/E of the S&P500 was 40 when DIS was at a P/E of 160 at the peak. DIS P/E was 4x the S&P
Recently the S&P had a P/E of 20 when DIS had a P/E of 80. Still 4x.
So yes, Disney stock is benefiting from some kind of speculation, probably due to D+ as @BrianLo says. Earnings are expected to increase.
However, DIS stock fell in lock step with the rest of the market. It had no apparent connection to any buffoonery from either Bob. It's probably due to the withdrawal of stimulus and higher Fed rates.
S&P 500 P/E Chart
I work(ed) for a company that too decided they want to be a tech company instead of, you know, sticking to what they do and their stock has crashed and burned in addition to layoffs galore. Seems to be a trend right now for many companies.Iger and the board wanted to be viewed as more of a tech company, and all those sweet valuation multipliers.
Congratulations, they got their wish.
I have said many times that I started going to WDW with my family in 1983 as a 35 year old adult. I have seen that parking lot at MK completely full and everyone was at MK. Granted there weren't as many resorts onsite at the time, but I can tell you the park was full. At the time all the buildings that existed were open and operating, the lines looked long but moved quickly. It was fun and not at all frustrating. I have seen it when the area around Small World, granted a bottleneck, was packed with people so much so that walking through the area was a real challenge. All the quick service places were open and busy but because they were all open there was not problem finding a place to sit. The park physically is no bigger now than it was back then, space wise, but it really was crowded and that was during what, at the time, was thought of as the off season.Are the parks more crowded than ever? Or does it seem that way because of how they are being managed? Rides not being run at full capacity... Things not being open... Staffing issues... Maybe they are more crowded, I really don't know. I now they are making more money because they are changing so much more. But I do wonder about how crowded it is v.s. how crowded it feels.
So you’re basically saying that it’s hurting based on speculation - not actual performance/assets?
No one cares about “slow rise”…so it’s all made upExactly right! The stock was hitting all time highs as the parks were closed and their movie business was capped off at the knees. If that isn’t clear speculation around D+ I don’t know what is.
Disney Parks, Experiences and Products had a segment operation income of 7.9 billion for fiscal 2022. 6.75 in fiscal 2019. More impressive since cruises weren't functional for a portion of fiscal 2022, nor Shanghai Disney (which IS typically profitable for the company if its open).
IF Disney was simply this one division the stock price likely would be slowly rising. Something that flies wildly counter to the revenge on Genie plus and park reservation plot that this board so desperately wants to be a reality.
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