I could see them pricing this at $200 and then offering a discount to $190 or $195 for existing owners or even opening the sales at $188 and raising the price to around $200 shortly after. Both have been done in the past. CCV was 71% sold as of the end of January and will likely be 90%+ sold before Riviera goes on sale. I doubt they will worry about having to raise the price on the last handful of points there. I dont think Aulani factors much into the pricing at WDW.Sold out resorts are entirely different, and the direct price has been rising at roughly $6 a year lately. They use incentives, point charts, and restrictions to adjust the overall cost per point of current resorts but not the posted dollar amount. To put Riviera at $200 a point they'd have to either price Aulani and CCV just as high or change the very successful way they've been selling they product. Either of those seem ridiculous to me. The most I could see is a $3 across the board hike in the back of the $6 raise from 6 weeks ago.
But sure, yeah, they can do whatever they want.
IMHO the increase to $225 at the popular “sold out” resorts is done as a way to make the new resorts they are selling more appealing. Historically the spread between new and old resorts hasn’t been this big. I think we could see a pretty substantial increase for Riviera. All just speculation. Maybe they will just decide to not raise prices.