Yeah that's the math.
There would be more people upgrading from Multi-Pass to this than there would be downgrading from VIP tour to this.
This WSJ article from yesterday indicates Disney averaged $250MM/year from 2021-2024 for what was known as Genie+. (Doesn't say if that includes what we now know as LLMP and LLSP combined. Doesn't say which parks.)
I was previously told that combined domestic Genie+ and ILL revenue was between $500 to $800MM annually, and I'm still comfortable with that as a ballpark.
The other thing to take into account is that the average number of LLMP uses per guest remains below 3. Three rides. Three. Per family per day.
This pass is talking about all the rides in one or two parks - a use increase of 500%.
So Disney's going to risk:
- $500 to $800MM in annual revenue
- VIP tour revenue
- Other high-end products
And put more 500% more people in the LL, thereby making it worth less?
Let's say Disney sells 70 VIP tours per day across WDW and DL combined, at $4,000/each. (I think that's absurdly low, but work with me.) That's another $100MM in annual revenue.
So we're looking at $600 to $900MM in annual revenue in their line-skipping programs.
How much ... how much money would they need to charge for Premier Pass to mitigate the risk to that $600-$900MM?
The alternative would be a pass with such limited quantities that it doesn't materially affect any of the above. So that's a possibiilty.