Good points. I wonder if you have some thoughts as to what Disney's motivation is, then, to hold back on AP's? They have the data that we don't. I'm guessing they have some reason for potentially alienating their biggest fans, aside from what Chapek said about the family from Denver or wherever... unless that's the sum of their reasoning.
To be honest, I'm really surprised they didn't open it up before Christmas. I'm guessing a lot of folks used the holidays as a good reason for such an investment. Even if they delayed use, they could have sold the passes.
Then again, maybe people just bought single/multi-day tickets instead, which are more profitable.
If I were running Disney, I'd be cautious about selling AP's because they don't seem to be fully up to speed yet. They should have enough trained employees on payroll to spare so they can surge scheduling on busier days. They wouldn't want to open the floodgates and then not have enough CM's to do the job (which seems to be the case already, which means they need more people already.)
Then there's the general money issue. They lost money because of the pandemic (parks and films) their 50 year celebration fizzled as a result, and they're investing in all kinds of new attractions and improvements. As long as AP's are on pause and attendance isn't dropping, then they are presumably banking more per day than when APers were more plentiful.
I suspect it's a combination of both. They're not ready, capacity-wise, and they're enjoying the extra income from day passes - and that income is more crucial right now.
But the bottom line: when your product is in demand, you don't need to discount. AP's are a discount (which then bring more discounts for merch and dining.) None of that is owed to anyone, not even really big fans.
They are doing all of this on a limited basis - with Florida residents. We can buy certain AP's, and we are getting certain discounts now and then - room discounts, ticket discounts, etc. It seems they aren't ready to "go wide" with that yet.