News Disney CEO Bob Chapek reiterates his belief that park reservations are now an essential part of Disney's theme parks business

larryz

I'm Just A Tourist!
Premium Member
There's not a direct relationship between park capacity and the number of park reservations. Disney manipulates the number of reservations to ensure the right number of guests in each park. So even if the MK is below capacity, if the AK demand is too low relative to the labor they're paying for, they'll shut off MK reservations to encourage guests to go to AK (and the other parks).

How do I know this? A conversation with someone in Disney's Yield Management team about how their data scientists have rotating pager coverage one weekend a month. I was like "What kind of data emergency would there be for a statistician to be on call on a weekend?" He said that if park caps needed adjusting and re-modeling the financials at the last minute, someone was on call to do it.
That leaves a bad taste in my mouth... and it's not from the Cheez-It's I'm eating ATM.
 

Sir_Cliff

Well-Known Member
And unfortunately, that's what gives them the runway to continue lowering standards and raising prices.

It'll have to be well past the point of " it's now worse and way more expensive than" before enough people are willing to step away, though and there will still be people that insist that everything that isn't Disney "is just not Disney" or fall back on the "I just feel a certain way when I'm there" to justify to themselves and others why it is still worth their money and their time, even then - those are just not reasonable or logical positions so there is no reasoning with that argument.* 🤷‍♂️

I guess it's like the saying goes "all good things..." and now, just a matter of where each person decides their stepping off point is.


*and we all have those kinds of feelings about certain things in life. I'm not trying to shame anyone but there will be someone that says it's still worth it well past the point of you thinking it is, whoever you are and wherever your point is.
One thing I have noticed recently is that the idea that Disney is gouging consumers with price rises while lowering quality seems to have become more mainstream than it has been since the Save Disney days. This is partly related to political battles in which certain outlets are looking for any opportunity they can find to whack Disney and an era where a Reddit thread is treated as a credible basis for a news story. Still, I think it is notable that when Chapek is interviewed by the Wall Street Journal he is asked about rising discontent with how the parks are being run.

During the Iger years, there was plenty of grumbling online, but I don't think it was judged significant or interesting enough to constitute a news story. I do wonder how much these stories going mainstream is feeding a broader perception among even those who don't visit Disney parks that they aren't what they used to be and is damaging the brand in a way that won't be immediately apparent in terms of bookings or attendance figures.

It would be one thing of the parks were sparkling clean and attractions running in top condition as "Disney parks are expensive" isn't a particularly compelling story. When you can illustrate that with pictures of the mouldy exterior of Space Mountain or multiple examples of rides running with broken AAs, though, you do have a more interesting story of a greedy corporation bleeding consumers and cutting costs whatever precisely is going on. It's strange/arrogant to me that Disney seems a little indifferent to upkeep amidst all this bad publicity over price rises.
 
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TQQQ

Well-Known Member
One thing I have noticed recently is that the idea that Disney is gouging consumers with price rises while lowering quality seems to have become more mainstream than it has been since the Save Disney days. This is partly related to political battles in which certain outlets are looking for any opportunity they can find to whack Disney and an era where a Reddit thread is treated as a credible basis for a news story. Still, I think it is notable that when Chapek is interviewed by the Wall Street Journal he is asked about rising discontent with how the parks are being run.

During the Iger years, there was plenty of grumbling online, but I don't think it was judged significant or interesting enough to constitute a news story. I do wonder how much these stories going mainstream is feeding a broader perception among even those who don't visit Disney parks that they aren't what they used to be and is damaging the brand in a way that won't be immediately apparent in terms of bookings or attendance figures.

It would be one thing of the parks were sparkling clean and attractions running in top condition as "Disney parks are expensive" isn't a particularly compelling story. When you can illustrate that with pictures of the mouldy exterior of Space Mountain or multiple examples of rides running with broken AAs, though, you do have a more interesting story of a greedy corporation bleeding consumers and cutting costs whatever precisely is going on.
Mainstream media has picked up several stories on how expensive Disney has become while how the guest experience and satisfaction numbers have suffered but guests continue to go........for now

HEres the latest in case you didnt see it:

 

el_super

Well-Known Member
Mainstream media has picked up several stories on how expensive Disney has become while how the guest experience and satisfaction numbers have suffered but guests continue to go........for now

The "reduced" guest experience has been a narrative since the parks reopened in July of 2020.
The park reservations have been in place for two years now.
Genie+ has been in place for over a year.

Whatever stories are being posted in the media are being overwhelmed by FOMO. Generated in part by travel planning websites, youtube vloggers and instagram. None of those are having any discernible negative impact on demand.
 

TQQQ

Well-Known Member
The "reduced" guest experience has been a narrative since the parks reopened in July of 2020.
The park reservations have been in place for two years now.
Genie+ has been in place for over a year.

Whatever stories are being posted in the media are being overwhelmed by FOMO. Generated in part by travel planning websites, youtube vloggers and instagram. None of those are having any discernible negative impact on demand.
agree...theres a ton of pent up travel demand....WDW is a beneficiary of the macro environment/hangover from the pandemic....Southwest air just reported record earnings today and the CEO said they could have way more flights but dont have enough pilots

It will abate sooner or later........

Mgmt is riding the wave now and can always offer discounts/reintroduce incentives and perks when the market turns to spur demand


But lower guest satisfaction is a real thing.........there have been a lot of things cut because of the demand and they can get away with it, but dont kid yourself, people are not satisfied with what they are getting for their money, its just a unique time
 

el_super

Well-Known Member
It will abate sooner or later........

Probably not. Even if we discount their pandemic backlog, the demand was still exceptionally high in 2019, even while they were trying to curb demand thru price increases. By the time they start to see a slowdown in travel bookings, they will open TRON. It will be three or four years before things start slowing down again, and of course by then, all the people that have sworn off the place forever in 21/22, will miss it terribly and be ready to book.
 

Sir_Cliff

Well-Known Member
Probably not. Even if we discount their pandemic backlog, the demand was still exceptionally high in 2019, even while they were trying to curb demand thru price increases. By the time they start to see a slowdown in travel bookings, they will open TRON. It will be three or four years before things start slowing down again, and of course by then, all the people that have sworn off the place forever in 21/22, will miss it terribly and be ready to book.
We'll see. I tend to think it's never wise to proclaim Disney is about to reap the whirlwind as so far that prediction has never proven true, but I also have serious doubts Disney's product is really that great that they're indestructible. For one thing, they need massive volumes of people to visit every day, not just the addicted. They could easily go too far in pruning too many of their visitors with price rises, complicated reservation and upcharge systems, and reduced experiences and then struggle to win them back. Opening Tron certainly wouldn't do it.
 

TQQQ

Well-Known Member
Probably not. Even if we discount their pandemic backlog, the demand was still exceptionally high in 2019, even while they were trying to curb demand thru price increases. By the time they start to see a slowdown in travel bookings, they will open TRON. It will be three or four years before things start slowing down again, and of course by then, all the people that have sworn off the place forever in 21/22, will miss it terribly and be ready to book.
Agree to disagree....................if you look at DVC booking availability inside the 7 month booking window, there is the most i have ever seen in the month of April...........Every single hotel is available to book except for Beach Club for most weeks.............Ive never seen that before for any timeframe inside of 7 months

even easter week has a decent amount of availability and that typically the busiest week of the entire spring
 

el_super

Well-Known Member
For one thing, they need massive volumes of people to visit every day, not just the addicted.

I think that's the point here Disney is really trying to make: they don't need massive volumes of people to keep the parks running.

My baseline here is thinking back to the late 1990s when the parks were reaching 12/13 million people a year (a new record every year) and thinking it couldn't possibly go higher than that. Magic Kingdom at 20 million guests per year, could easily shed 50% of their attendance and still beat their best years of the 70s and 80s.

They don't have to be a volume business and from their comments, it seems Disney is increasingly seeing the downside in being one.
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
We'll see. I tend to think it's never wise to proclaim Disney is about to reap the whirlwind as so far that prediction has never proven true, but I also have serious doubts Disney's product is really that great that they're indestructible. For one thing, they need massive volumes of people to visit every day, not just the addicted. They could easily go too far in pruning too many of their visitors with price rises, complicated reservation and upcharge systems, and reduced experiences and then struggle to win them back. Opening Tron certainly wouldn't do it.
It’s a story we’ve seen play out before. Market leaders can very suddenly become distressed and they suddenly don’t have the insight to change or resources to win back customers.
 

el_super

Well-Known Member
even easter week has a decent amount of availability and that typically the busiest week of the entire spring

I would guess that is mostly due to recession fears... and even then that seems to be 50/50 now.

Even if the recession does happen, with everything said after 2019, I have sincere doubts that Disney would be so eager to devalue their product as they did in 2008. At this point I think they would rather close their parks for the duration, than start passing out cheap APs again.
 

UNCgolf

Well-Known Member
We'll see. I tend to think it's never wise to proclaim Disney is about to reap the whirlwind as so far that prediction has never proven true, but I also have serious doubts Disney's product is really that great that they're indestructible. For one thing, they need massive volumes of people to visit every day, not just the addicted. They could easily go too far in pruning too many of their visitors with price rises, complicated reservation and upcharge systems, and reduced experiences and then struggle to win them back. Opening Tron certainly wouldn't do it.

I have friends with an 8 year old. Both are attorneys and they have loads of discretionary income, and I know the mom loves Disney films.

I asked them recently if they were planning a trip to WDW and was told they'd briefly looked into it but it seemed like a hassle/poor value. They'd rather do luxury ski resorts, tropical destinations, etc.

That's obviously just one family, which tells us very little, but a couple with a kid under the age of 10 and enough discretionary income to do essentially anything is exactly who Disney says they want (I don't think Disney is actually trying to court that customer considering their offerings, but that's at least the narrative).
 
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HauntedPirate

Park nostalgist
Premium Member
I think that's the point here Disney is really trying to make: they don't need massive volumes of people to keep the parks running.

My baseline here is thinking back to the late 1990s when the parks were reaching 12/13 million people a year (a new record every year) and thinking it couldn't possibly go higher than that. Magic Kingdom at 20 million guests per year, could easily shed 50% of their attendance and still beat their best years of the 70s and 80s.

They don't have to be a volume business and from their comments, it seems Disney is increasingly seeing the downside in being one.

So why haven't they doubled the price on everything already? If they could easily shed half of their existing customers, doubling the price shouldn't be a barrier to accomplishing that goal.
 

UNCgolf

Well-Known Member
I think that's the point here Disney is really trying to make: they don't need massive volumes of people to keep the parks running.

My baseline here is thinking back to the late 1990s when the parks were reaching 12/13 million people a year (a new record every year) and thinking it couldn't possibly go higher than that. Magic Kingdom at 20 million guests per year, could easily shed 50% of their attendance and still beat their best years of the 70s and 80s.

They don't have to be a volume business and from their comments, it seems Disney is increasingly seeing the downside in being one.

They could still be successful that way, but their revenue would decline significantly. That's a problem for investors/stock pricing.

Ticket prices are one thing; F&B and merchandising are another. My guess is they make far more money on merch/F&B than they do on admission, and it's much harder to double prices there to make up for a loss in volume.

Obviously Genie+ and ILL throw a wrench in that, but if attendance actually did drop significantly, those services would provide less value and less revenue.
 
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