News Disney CEO Bob Chapek reiterates his belief that park reservations are now an essential part of Disney's theme parks business

[GimpYancIent]

The guests / customers / consumers / patrons / vacationers / fans etc. (whatever descriptor anyone wants to use) ultimately have the power to impact all Disney decision making. Stop going and stop buying, turn off the money spigot. It will not need to be turned off very long before there is a reaction and a change in attitude. Yes, it will take public will power, lots of will power, but it can happen. Until then BC & Co will be thumbing their nose at everyone.

 

[RSoxNo1]

This may be a question for @lentesta, but I'm playing a bit of devil's advocate here.

Is there some logic to the day by day capacity caps at any given park? I'm guessing that overall park capacity is reduced, but to the average consumer this doesn't compute logically. It's the airline question, why not just fly the plane faster? Well, fuel efficiency is also important.

So bringing this back to Disney, do they have pockets or tiers (sorry for the corporate buzz speak) of attendance where they deliberately cap attendance on a day where it otherwise may dip into a need for additional cast members? They look at mid-September and know that they can reduce operational costs during that time and identify what optimal operational costs would be in that window. That math differs wildly between Christmas and New Years, but so too does the spending.

That brings forth the actual questions, what is the "fuel efficiency" here? It's probably as straight forward as, MK in September will make the same amount of money with 30K guests in the park as it would with 32K guests in the park, then let's cap the capacity at 30K.

This was probably an ultimate goal of Next Gen that they couldn't do with analytics, so they just made a hard line capacity cap at each park.

 

[Jrb1979]

Headline should be changed to, "Disney CEO Bob Chapek doesn't understand the Theme Park Business"

It's the truth. He's of the belief the parks are for carnies.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The worst part of it isn't even the process of booking your days. The worst part is what they're doing with that info, making sure they only have the least possible number of CMs scheduled for the expected attendance.

That is the point.

We can hear 3,567 different “but….but…but…” theories (sure they’re inbound soon)…but it is about squeezing staff and directing customers to the “soft spots”

It’s not necessarily negative in some ways…it’s definitely not positive in others.

Which Phase of grief is “acceptance”? We’re at it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

And right on queue…enjoy the show, everyone!

 

[lentesta]

This may be a question for @lentesta, but I'm playing a bit of devil's advocate here.

Is there some logic to the day by day capacity caps at any given park? I'm guessing that overall park capacity is reduced, but to the average consumer this doesn't compute logically. It's the airline question, why not just fly the plane faster? Well, fuel efficiency is also important.

So bringing this back to Disney, do they have pockets or tiers (sorry for the corporate buzz speak) of attendance where they deliberately cap attendance on a day where it otherwise may dip into a need for additional cast members? They look at mid-September and know that they can reduce operational costs during that time and identify what optimal operational costs would be in that window. That math differs wildly between Christmas and New Years, but so too does the spending.

That brings forth the actual questions, what is the "fuel efficiency" here? It's probably as straight forward as, MK in September will make the same amount of money with 30K guests in the park as it would with 32K guests in the park, then let's cap the capacity at 30K.

This was probably an ultimate goal of Next Gen that they couldn't do with analytics, so they just made a hard line capacity cap at each park.

There's not a direct relationship between park capacity and the number of park reservations. Disney manipulates the number of reservations to ensure the right number of guests in each park. So even if the MK is below capacity, if the AK demand is too low relative to the labor they're paying for, they'll shut off MK reservations to encourage guests to go to AK (and the other parks).

How do I know this? A conversation with someone in Disney's Yield Management team about how their data scientists have rotating pager coverage one weekend a month. I was like "What kind of data emergency would there be for a statistician to be on call on a weekend?" He said that if park caps needed adjusting and re-modeling the financials at the last minute, someone was on call to do it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

There's not a direct relationship between park capacity and the number of park reservations. Disney manipulates the number of reservations to ensure the right number of guests in each park. So even if the MK is below capacity, if the AK demand is too low relative to the labor they're paying for, they'll shut off MK reservations to encourage guests to go to AK (and the other parks).

How do I know this? A conversation with someone in Disney's Yield Management team about how their data scientists have rotating pager coverage one weekend a month. I was like "What kind of data emergency would there be for a statistician to be on call on a weekend?" He said that if park caps needed adjusting and re-modeling the financials at the last minute, someone was on call to do it.

Thank you…as usual

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It's the truth. He's of the belief the parks are for carnies.

 

[BrianLo]

There's not a direct relationship between park capacity and the number of park reservations. Disney manipulates the number of reservations to ensure the right number of guests in each park. So even if the MK is below capacity, if the AK demand is too low relative to the labor they're paying for, they'll shut off MK reservations to encourage guests to go to AK (and the other parks).

How do I know this? A conversation with someone in Disney's Yield Management team about how their data scientists have rotating pager coverage one weekend a month. I was like "What kind of data emergency would there be for a statistician to be on call on a weekend?" He said that if park caps needed adjusting and re-modeling the financials at the last minute, someone was on call to do it.

It's nice to get some actual second hand confirmation of this.

This is why no matter how many message board people grumble, this tool is way more powerful of a control lever than people think. Unless it's drastically causing resort wide attendance loss (sorry, it almost certainly isn't)... they are never going to be motivated to get rid of it.

Of course, it would be nice if Chapek was actually honest about it, but he is not an actual idiot.

 

[monothingie]

How do I know this? A conversation with someone in Disney's Yield Management team about how their data scientists have rotating pager coverage one weekend a month. I was like "What kind of data emergency would there be for a statistician to be on call on a weekend?" He said that if park caps needed adjusting and re-modeling the financials at the last minute, someone was on call to do it.

It's almost nauseating that this is the reality of things.

 

[Disney Dead Head]

What you would need to have to happen is something like having all the APs (I know limited #'s) make Reservations for all the parks and then just not show up, multiple times things like this will raise an eyebrow

 

[monothingie]

Unless it's drastically causing resort wide attendance loss (sorry, it almost certainly isn't)... they are never going to be motivated to get rid of it.

Once all the families from Colorado get their once every 5 year trips out of their system you'll see the house of cards start to shake.

 

[Lilofan]

…and there’s the payoff…”the switcheroo”

Odd the article comes out after the WDW exec site visit.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Disney manipulates the number of reservations to ensure the right number of guests in each park. So even if the MK is below capacity, if the AK demand is too low relative to the labor they're paying for, they'll shut off MK reservations to encourage guests to go to AK (and the other parks).

Remember when you could buy a park hopper ticket and decide what park you wanted to visit that morning, and then go somewhere else a couple hours later if you wanted to?

That was just 3 years ago.

 

[BrianLo]

Once all the families from Colorado get their once every 5 year trips out of their system you'll see the house of cards start to shake.

Perhaps, but then the family of 5 from Ontario still only recently started up their revenge travel trend. The Brits after that (although they are having other issues that may not rebound the trend line). It's still more staggered than we think.

Plus WDW in particular is going to ride on its 2017-19 new ride blitz goodwill until Epic Universe does some of the actual leg work for the broader Orlando area.

Maybe the whole thing will come off the rails with a credit/debt crunch, but I'm not so sure yet.

 

[RSoxNo1]

There's not a direct relationship between park capacity and the number of park reservations. Disney manipulates the number of reservations to ensure the right number of guests in each park. So even if the MK is below capacity, if the AK demand is too low relative to the labor they're paying for, they'll shut off MK reservations to encourage guests to go to AK (and the other parks).

How do I know this? A conversation with someone in Disney's Yield Management team about how their data scientists have rotating pager coverage one weekend a month. I was like "What kind of data emergency would there be for a statistician to be on call on a weekend?" He said that if park caps needed adjusting and re-modeling the financials at the last minute, someone was on call to do it.

That's interesting. Previously they would try to spread out the crowds in any given park by doing things like bonus Fastpasses that would reward or surprise guests. It was manipulative, but it was also free. By all accounts it wasn't overly successful, but it did work well enough to possibly save Carousel of Progress. I also suspect, that behavior was executed by Park Ops and not at the executive level.

As for the current execution, rather than entice people to go to a different park with better offerings they're flat out forcing them to those parks. I would venture a guess that the average per guest spending is highest at EPCOT simply due to the food and alcohol component. As such, they're going to be far more willing to expand that park's capacity.

But back to my original question, I suspect that the park reservation cap in September is different than park reservation cap in late December.

 

[monothingie]

Perhaps, but then the family of 5 from Ontario still only recently started up their revenge travel trend. The Brits after that (although they are having other issues that may not rebound the trend line). It's still more staggered than we think.

Plus WDW in particular is going to ride on its 2017-19 new ride blitz goodwill until Epic Universe does some of the actual leg work for the broader Orlando area.

Maybe the whole thing will come off the rails with a credit/debt crunch, but I'm not so sure yet.

The problem is, that in order to show growth you have to squeeze out every penny. They can't afford to loose any segment of guest. Quarterly growth is the unsustainable life blood of TWDC on the street right now. This is a train wreck that anyone can see coming in the making.

 

[GimpYancIent]

Recently, according to an article in the Wall Street Journal, BC claimed to be catering to the audience. What audience does BC think is being catered to? BC has, is and has indicated a continuance of this so-called catering, welllll simply put, continuance of this so-called catering will ensure a diminishing audience to the point where eventually there will be no audience.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Recently, according to an article in the Wall Street Journal, BC claimed to be catering to the audience. What audience does BC think is being catered to? BC has, is and has indicated a continuance of this so-called catering, welllll simply put, continuance of this so-called catering will ensure a diminishing audience to the point where eventually there will be no audience.

Paycheck’s audience is shareholders.

 

[Virtual Toad]

Our family is having a great time as UOAPs this year. No reservations, no pre-planning headaches, great attractions and entertainment, and more-than-manageable crowds. For decades we were about as die-hard as Disney fans could possibly be. But no longer. Thanks for the memories WDW-- and thanks for absolutely nothing clueless Bob. You managed to take a $$$$ spending Disney family and turn them off forever to the brand. Along with our friends, extended family and anyone else who seeks our opinion.