Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
- Start date
Chi84
Premium Member
That’s because people keep going to Disney parks and movies.
That’s what free market means. You can’t rush it no matter how much you would like to.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
I honestly think he forgets what he posts half the time, so I forgive him a little bit, but only a little bit.
Sorry for the confusion, but when I posted the estimate below back on March 23rd, I was not predicting it would make less than $100 Million domestically. My worst case scenario three weeks ago was a $150 Million domestic and $150 Million overseas box office, for a box office total of $300 Million globally.
I think you saw my "$90 Domestic" total, and forgot that was Disney's profit from 60% of the domestic box office.
$150 Million Domestic Box Office, with Disney getting 60% of the take, nets $90 Million in profit for Burbank.
Getting back to box office, here's two scenarios that would seem to be playing out for Snow White; a $300 Million global cumulative that seems likely, and a $400 Million global cumulative that would be the best case scenario after this weekend.
It's helpful that the domestic and overseas box office stats seem to be on a nearly identical path, so we'll just continue with that assumption for the totals two months from now.
$300 Million Snow White; Production $250, Marketing $100, Domestic $90, Overseas $60 = $200 Million Loss
$400 Million Snow White: Production $250, Marketing $100, Domestic $120, Overseas $80 = $150 Million Loss
How much is a new night parade again?
It now appears that my Worst Case Scenario of a $300 Million global box office that Mr. Johnson and I crunched out here in the TP2000 Global Command Center on March 23rd was far too optimistic. And my Best Case Scenario of a $400 Million global box office seems laughable now.
Thank you! In @LittleBuford's defense, I should have made it more clear that the $300 Million global box office had a 60/40 domestic/overseas box office take for Burbank. I use that equation constantly, but when you skim a thread it's easy to forget. I'm a famous thread skimmer myself, so no harm done.
Although the tone towards me and the data I offer could be a tad kinder, I do admit.
I will redouble my efforts to note that Burbank's take is 60% of domestic and 40% of overseas box office.
For those still with us, here's the current Worst Case Scenario as of April 11th, compared to the March 23rd scenario.
April 11th Worst Case Scenario, using a 60/40 domestic/overseas box office take, assuming today's latest box office data that shows it's heading to about a $90 Million domestic final tally and a $130 Million Overseas final tally:
$220 Million Snow White: Production $270, Marketing $100, Domestic $54, Overseas $52 = $264 Million Loss
Snow White is really Disney's only movie in theaters right now, and it's a box office tale of tragic proportions and over two years of epically bad PR from it's leading actress, which had a major part in its box office bomb status. What else are we supposed to talk about this month in the Disney At The Box Office thread? We're supposed to discuss Easter side dish recipes?
WorldExplorer
Well-Known Member
It's doing badly enough that it's on its way to becoming one of those movies that people regularly bring up as a benchmark for losing money. Right now, unadjusted for inflation (which would make it worse), it's failing to hit the box office of notorious big budget flops like The Lone Ranger and John Carter, as well as more recent disasters like Indiana Jones 5, The Flash, Joker 2, and The Marvels.
It's only the messy world of exactly how big the budgets were (plus marketing) that's keeping it up in their air which of them was a bigger disaster.
It's also barely clawing its way to meet Mirror, Mirror, and getting the crap beaten out of it by Snow White and the Huntsman.
LittleBuford
Well-Known Member
That’s entirely fair. I am happy to accept my mistake and apologise for misrepresenting your position.
I try to be kind but don’t always succeed. By my assessment, you are frequently not a straight shooter, and I find that intensely frustrating, but on this occasion, I was wrong to call you out.Although the tone towards me and the data I offer could be a tad kinder, I do admit.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Disney enjoys a much longer fuse than 99.9% of companies…
That’s why the “people have been saying this for years…” comments that some like to tuck themselves in at night with to feel good are frankly kinda silly.
But it still burns
For instance…this management should have gone 10 years ago…because for a content company you have to refresh the waters and 10 years on the job is PLENTY…
But since it’s Disney…6-8 years ago could have been understandable/justified
The last 5 has been a full disaster…but since it’s Disney…here we sit after losing in overtime
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TP2000
Well-Known Member
Thank you for getting it, that's very kind!
If you are ever in the St. George Metroplex (not actually a thing), please let me know and I can give you a Backstage Magic Tour of the TP2000 Global Command Center, and introduce you to Mr. Johnson and the boys.
And if you're there on a Thursday, that's when we replace any burned out blinky lights before the weekend box office comes in. We let the tour guests replace one or two bulbs with us, and it's a real highlight.
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Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
…wait a minute…didn’t that have Thor and Charlize?
Much better southern hemisphere eye candy in that one
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
TP2GCCThank you for getting it, that's very kind!
If you are ever in the St. George Metroplex (not actually a thing), please let me know and I can give you a Backstage Magic Tour of the TP2000 Global Command Center.
And if you're there on a Thursday, that's when we replace any burned out blinky lights before the weekend box office comes in. We let the tour guests replace one or two bulbs with us, and it's a real highlight.
is now totally a thing
We can monitor and direct the activities of The RAGE Network from there
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
Exactly. In this case, in my opinion, keeping the name but drastically changing the story, in the case of SotS, would stand a better chance of being accepted, and Splash could have just been tweaked.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
I agree and that is why I don’t know why folks are apologizing for Disney.
Disney will do what Disney will do, apologizes or not.
LittleBuford
Well-Known Member
What do you mean exactly by "apologizing for Disney"? Can you provide some examples from the movie threads?
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Like 50% of the comments on this and most movie discussions
Continually trying to bury the leads…
Which are the choices they make for films are entirely out of whack and they are actively making bad business decisions with them in many cases.
And when something makes no money…it’s a fail. All this nonsense about “sometimes it’s not about the money…” and “everything makes money on Disney + (declining subs)” is just fans trying to self soothe themselves with utter CRAP
Am I being too nuanced?
TP2000
Well-Known Member
For those keeping score at home, I already came up with several good responses to that line that would have been a huge hit at a Silver Lake brunch table today, but are inappropriate for this thread.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
That's an interesting point. As we've seen in just the past dozen posts or so, Snow White and its continually lowering box office expectations since late March have not been easy to keep up with for anyone.
This is how your comparison looks adjusted for inflation, as several of those movies are pre-Covid and the elevated inflation of the past 4 years. Using a standard 60/40 Domestic/Overseas box office take for Burbank, of course.
Snow White: Production $270, Marketing $100, $49 Domestic, $40 Overseas = $281 Million Loss (and shrinking very slowly)
The Marvels: Production $280, Marketing $100, $52 Domestic, $48 Overseas = $280 Million Loss
Indy 5: Production $310, Marketing $150, $108 Domestic, $86 Overseas = $266 Million Loss
Lone Ranger: Production $313, Marketing $150, $74 Domestic, $95 Overseas = $294 Million Loss
John Carter: Production $375, Marketing $150, $62 Domestic, $119 Overseas = $344 Million Loss
So Snow White is heading for a historical bomb status equal to The Marvels, but not quite as "good" as Indy 5's huge loss in that terrible, no good year of 2023. And at least.... at least.... Snow White isn't as horrific as John Carter.
LittleBuford
Well-Known Member
But you aren't providing any specific examples. And your responses to my posts show that you aren't really interested in specifics anyway.
What you are looking for is dogmatism, and that's not a good basis for productive discussion. You want me and others to say "Snow White was an awful idea and lost money for Disney!" and leave it there, as if box-office performance should be the only thing we care about. But my own feelings on the film are more complex than that, so why shouldn't I explore and voice them? (I'm referring to other threads in this part of the forum; I realise this particular thread is specifically about the box office.)
Let me end by reiterating a point I've made before. I know it rubs you the wrong way whenever I bring it up, but we both give money to Disney. Indeed, you give considerably more than I do, based on what you yourself have revealed about your spending at the parks. I'm generally happy with what Disney currently offers, even if I am criticial of certain products and decisions. You, on the other hand, seem generally unhappy with what Disney currently offers. That's perfectly fair—we're all entitled to our tastes and opinions—but I really don't think you're in any position to preach to others about how deluded we are to support the company in its present state.
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TP2000
Well-Known Member
TP2GCC
is now totally a thing
We can monitor and direct the activities of The RAGE Network from there
We let Ted monitor and direct that segment for us.
That's why most of his blinky lights at his console are red. They're burning hot with rage and hate. Ted's a real piece of work.
Chi84
Premium Member
Sometimes movies aren't all about the money and they do make money outside of the theatrical release. I know this is a box office thread but those two subjects are at least tangential and it makes sense to discuss them here.
My question is why you think people who post the comments you referenced are doing it to "soothe themselves?" You're too much into the "feels" sometimes. You care deeply about Disney and tend to attribute that level of caring to others. I can acknowledge what a movie makes outside of its theatrical release without feeling "soothed" or any other kind of way.
Only a few generations "grew up" alongside Disney. It's losing those generations now and younger fans don't "feel" much of anything toward the Disney company. It's possible that would have happened no matter who was in charge.
We saw Drop today… pretty good thriller
the theater did not up the screens for Minecraft…. It was still on 2 screens… interestingly they had King of Kings on 5 screens…. I was surprised by that
As we were leaving the theater a group of 5 or 6 teenage girls were being kicked out of the theater….as they were leaving I heard one of the girls say I was able to video everything on my phone…I was told by a poster that all the videos popping up were from the same show just different angles… if that’s the case I still wonder how many copycats did those inspire
the theater did not up the screens for Minecraft…. It was still on 2 screens… interestingly they had King of Kings on 5 screens…. I was surprised by that
As we were leaving the theater a group of 5 or 6 teenage girls were being kicked out of the theater….as they were leaving I heard one of the girls say I was able to video everything on my phone…I was told by a poster that all the videos popping up were from the same show just different angles… if that’s the case I still wonder how many copycats did those inspire
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
I jumped in and saw posts implying folks are apologizing for Disney, if there are no examples, GREAT!!! Folks should NOT apologize for Disney. Disney does what Disney does and does not apologize, so folks shouldn't apologize for them either.
Only one example, I wish Disney would apologize for destroying the fountain of nations and replacing it with an ugly planter in EPCOT.