Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[brideck]

Disney's first new movie of 2024 will be released in April in 2 weeks with First Omen, we'll see how it does.

There's so much variance in horror BO, I'd be loathe to make a prediction here. Audiences are definitely still looking for something to glom onto in 2024, though, after both Night Swim and Imaginary have more or less cratered on arrival.

Will it be this? Will it be Sydney Sweeney's Immaculate? Who knows?

Comps in the legacy horror space would be last year's The Exorcist: Believer ($65m/$137m) or the recent Halloween sequels (post-pandemic $92m/$133m, $64m/$105m). The trailer certainly looks suitably creepy, but audiences might be burned out on stuff recycling old IPs.

 

[Disney Irish]

There's so much variance in horror BO, I'd be loathe to make a prediction here. Audiences are definitely still looking for something to glom onto in 2024, though, after both Night Swim and Imaginary have more or less cratered on arrival.

Will it be this? Will it be Sydney Sweeney's Immaculate? Who knows?

Comps in the legacy horror space would be last year's The Exorcist: Believer ($65m) or the recent Halloween sequels (post-pandemic $92m, $64m). The trailer certainly looks suitably creepy, but audiences might be burned out on stuff recycling old IPs.

I look at something like Nun 2 that did $269M WW last fall, and think Omen has potential. We'll see.

 

[brideck]

I look at something like Nun 2 that did $269M WW last fall, and think Omen has potential. We'll see.

The Conjuring universe is on a whole other level for me (especially for foreign BO), so while that might be aspirational, that would be a stretch as a comp. Having not seen any of those movies, I couldn't speak to why they've got their hooks in so many people.

 

[Disney Irish]

The Conjuring universe is on a whole other level for me (especially for foreign BO), so while that might be aspirational, that would be a stretch as a comp. Having not seen any of those movies, I couldn't speak to why they've got their hooks in so many people.

It’s the long standing Hollywood question of why one movie or franchise connects with audiences and others don’t.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

The Conjuring universe is on a whole other level for me (especially for foreign BO), so while that might be aspirational, that would be a stretch as a comp. Having not seen any of those movies, I couldn't speak to why they've got their hooks in so many people.

Some of us were aware of the Warrens from the paranormal re-enactment shows.

I prefer a good scare to a gorefest; and the smidge of “true story” makes them more scary.

The movies are just good enough, never mind blowing, but worth a fun evening at the theater.

 

[brideck]

Some of us were aware of the Warrens from the paranormal re-enactment shows.

I prefer a good scare to a gorefest; and the smidge of “true story” makes them more scary.

The movies are just good enough, never mind blowing, but worth a fun evening at the theater.

That might help to explain the American response to those movies, but they really make their bank overseas. The aforementioned Nun II did $86m in the US, which is in the ballpark of the other legacy revivals I mentioned. But the whole Conjuring franchise typically makes 2x from their overseas BO on top of that, which pretty much no other horror franchise I can see gets.

One potential good sign in that space, albeit on a smaller scale, is that last year's The Pope's Exorcist ($20m/$77m) got a >2x overseas boost, so stuff in the (for lack of a better term) possession sub-genre of horror seems to be doing relatively well.

 

[celluloid]

That might help to explain the American response to those movies, but they really make their bank overseas. The aforementioned Nun II did $86m in the US, which is in the ballpark of the other legacy revivals I mentioned. But the whole Conjuring franchise typically makes 2x from their overseas BO on top of that, which pretty much no other horror franchise I can see gets.

One potential good sign in that space, albeit on a smaller scale, is that last year's The Pope's Exorcist ($20m/$77m) got a >2x overseas boost, so stuff in the (for lack of a better term) possession sub-genre of horror seems to be doing relatively well.

I wonder if there will be any viral catch on for the Late Night with The Devil. Probably not, but while on the subject, that comes out next weekend and has been advertising on my circles online for it. Can't speak for how much on others.
Ghostbusters is next week's clear number one opener.

 

[DKampy]

I was out of town last week for work, so just catching up on the conversation here. This'll probably be the last time it's worth posting this chart, but with this weekend's BO, Poor Things has officially passed The Favourite on the domestic front.

ETA: Obviously, this isn't true when you take inflation into account. But given the general post-pandemic reduction of theater audience, it's probably overperformed by about $7.5m.

View attachment 773505

re: Oscars bump or lackthereof --

In the current market, other than the nominations bump any significant bump typically happens in the week before the Oscars in the form of Best Picture Showcases. You can see this happened with The Favourite in 2019 with the slight uptick above the label "Mar." There wasn't so much of that this year because as I mentioned awhile back, that week also happened did quite to be when Dune 2 took over theaters. You can see this in screen counts, as Poor Things is actually now ~300 screens higher than when showcase week would have been, which is pretty unusual.

The Favourite ran all the way into mid-April. Given that Poor Things is already on Hulu, it'll be interesting to see how much post-ceremony run it continues to get. The Favourite was on pVOD before the Oscars, too, but I can't find any articles about when it was first included on a service like Hulu.

My feeling right now is despite the naysayers here… Disney is very happy with the results of Poor Things… the film is on track to make 20 million worldwide more than The Favourite… I also am guessing it had done quite well on Hulu also… only Disney has that data right now… but I know personally quite a few that watched it that way…so they are ready for a summer push… screen at Cannes… have early reviews and push it from the director of Poor Things… especially since they have a light schedule this year due to the dual strikes

I am also wondering if this is going wide straight away… the articles I read made it seem that way

What is interesting that weekend it is up against The Bikeriders which Disney gave up

 

[brideck]

I wonder if there will be any viral catch on for the Late Night with The Devil. Probably not, but while on the subject, that comes out next weekend and has been advertising on my circles online for it. Can't speak for how much on others.
Ghostbusters is next week's clear number one opener.

Huh. I hadn't even heard of Late Night with the Devil. It looks like it's only opening at Marcus, Emagine, and Alamo Drafthouse theaters in my state, so maybe something like 500-1000 screens total? Always hard to tell with limited releases.

Speaking of limited releases, I see that BOMojo lists The First Omen as one. It seems like the wide vs limited division is pretty squishy, though, so I don't know what that may mean in practice for this one. Last year's 20th Century releases, including horror offering The Boogeyman, all got 3000+ screens, but only The Creator was listed as wide. Disney apparently has a very high threshold for what they consider limited, since A Haunting in Venice got 3300.

 

[Disney Irish]

Huh. I hadn't even heard of Late Night with the Devil. It looks like it's only opening at Marcus, Emagine, and Alamo Drafthouse theaters in my state, so maybe something like 500-1000 screens total? Always hard to tell with limited releases.

Speaking of limited releases, I see that BOMojo lists The First Omen as one. It seems like the wide vs limited division is pretty squishy, though, so I don't know what that may mean in practice for this one. Last year's 20th Century releases, including horror offering The Boogeyman, all got 3000+ screens, but only The Creator was listed as wide. Disney apparently has a very high threshold for what they consider limited, since A Haunting in Venice got 3300.

I just don't think Mojo has updated Omen with the Wide classification (or maybe Disney just hasn't updated it), either way its going Wide not Limited.

 

[DKampy]

I just don't think Mojo has updated Omen with the Wide classification (or maybe Disney just hasn't updated it), either way its going Wide not Limited.

I noticed that a lot in box office mojo… they will have huge blockbuster type movies listed as limited

 

[Disney Irish]

I noticed that a lot in box office mojo… they will have huge blockbuster type movies listed as limited

I suspect studios will add something to the release schedule and just list it as "Limited" as a placeholder date. And then when the studio put the real movie in that date Mojo just never updates the classification to Wide.

I trust Mojo for all other data, but when something is listed as Limited vs Wide I just ignore that and look at the actual number of theaters.

 

[DKampy]

I suspect studios will add something to the release schedule and just list it as "Limited" as a placeholder date. And then when the studio put the real movie in that date Mojo just never updates the classification to Wide.

I trust Mojo for all other data, but when something is listed as Limited vs Wide I just ignore that and look at the actual number of theaters.

Makes sense… as I also noticed sometimes a studio will have an untitled film right up until the week it was scheduled for release without ever announcing what that title was

 

[TP2000]

Hi gang, hope we've all recovered from St. Patty's Day! (How come the Swedes never came up with a holiday that fun?)

Box Office is out for the weekend, and here in 2024 we'll need to get used to Disney not having movies in theaters for long stretches of time. This is one of those times, as Poor Things is the only film from a Disney studio that is in American theaters.

Of note for Disney watchers though, is that Kung Fu Panda was the top rated box office movie for a second weekend in a row. There is clearly a market for family friendly movies out there that parents can take their children to, or teens can go to on an easy upbeat date night.

Poor Things added 140 theaters for its Oscars Bump, but actually declined by 6% from last weekend.

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for August 2, 2024

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of August 2, 2024

www.the-numbers.com

 

[BuddyThomas]

Hi gang, hope we've all recovered from St. Patty's Day! (How come the Swedes never came up with a holiday that fun?)

Box Office is out for the weekend, and here in 2024 we'll need to get used to Disney not having movies in theaters for long stretches of time. This is one of those times, as Poor Things is the only film from a Disney studio that is in American theaters.

Of note for Disney watchers though, is that Kung Fu Panda was the top rated box office movie for a second weekend in a row. There is clearly a market for family friendly movies out there that parents can take their children to, or teens can go to on an easy upbeat date night.

View attachment 773625

Poor Things added 140 theaters for its Oscars Bump, but actually declined by 6% from last weekend.

View attachment 773626

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for August 2, 2024

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of August 2, 2024

www.the-numbers.com

To the surprise of absolutely no one, since it was released on December 8 and we’re now in the middle of March and the film is available for streaming on Hulu. Whether you accept it or not, the movie is a success.

 

[TP2000]

To the surprise of absolutely no one, since it was released on December 8 and we’re now in the middle of March and the film is available for streaming on Hulu. Whether you accept it or not, the movie is a success.

Yes, as I've said before, @MrPromey did a wonderful job of explaining how these small arthouse films keep the industry humming even if they don't make much money. That Poor Things will make at least a $5 or $10 Million profit for Searchlight is gravy, even if the other films from Searchlight this year lost money.

The bigger story there is that the Oscars Bump as we may have known it in the 20th century is now quite diminished in the 2020's. I'm going to have to remember that next winter if someone tries to use the Oscars Bump theory for the box office of February and March.

 

[brideck]

Poor Things added 140 theaters for its Oscars Bump, but actually declined by 6% from last weekend.

You are certainly just pretending to not understand that Poor Things made $8m-$10m more at the domestic BO than it would have without any Oscar nominations, right? The "bump" comes in January. The part you get now is the long tail. It all adds up.

For an easy comparison, it could have shared the fate of The Iron Claw, which only made $3.5m after Oscar nominations came out and has been out of theaters since late February.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Whether you accept it or not, the movie is a success.

Why would someone not accept it as a success?

 

[BuddyThomas]

Why would someone not accept it as a success?

By asking that question, it’s almost as if this is your first time in this thread.

 

[TP2000]

I was out of town last week for work, so just catching up on the conversation here. This'll probably be the last time it's worth posting this chart, but with this weekend's BO, Poor Things has officially passed The Favourite on the domestic front.

ETA: Obviously, this isn't true when you take inflation into account. But given the general post-pandemic reduction of theater audience, it's probably overperformed by about $7.5m.

View attachment 773505

Here's how those two movies look when you factor in the 20% inflation of the past few years.

Using the inflation adjusted dollar figures, here's how that looks when you consider production and marketing dollars.

The Favourite: Production $18, Marketing $10?, USA Box Office Take $24, Overseas B.O. Take $29 = $25 Million Profit
Poor Things: Production $35, Marketing $15?, USA Box Office Take $20, Overseas B.O. Take $31 = $1 Million Profit