Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Casper Gutman]

So we've established that streaming has profoundly destabilized Hollywood's financial models and has sent the entertainment industry into a period of transition with an uncertain future. Which is sort of the basis for this entire conversation and has been for hundreds of pages. Wheeeee...

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm going to set an alarm on my phone for September, 2024 to see how many DVD's Little Mermaid sold in the past year.

My bet is that the number of DVD/BluRay sales combined will be something below $7 Million. That's not launchable.

To be fair…no one under 50 who’s sane buys those anymore

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Except in 2023 they're not selling VHS, DVD, blu-ray, 4k disc, or digital, and the only customer they have for streaming rights is themselves.

Disney nuked all the other windows that used to provide post-theatrical revenue streams. Unless a piece of content is directly creating Disney+ subscribers (or at least preventing existing Disney+ subscribers from churning out), then the theatrical window is all they've got.

Well not all of them

But alot of them…yeah.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So we've established that streaming has profoundly destabilized Hollywood's financial models and has sent the entertainment industry into a period of transition with an uncertain future. Which is sort of the basis for this entire conversation and has been for hundreds of pages. Wheeeee...

I don’t think that’s in dispute.

What we need to add is in 15 years streaming hasn’t made much money at all. It’s a model that takes a lot of the traditional ways to generate Low overhead ancillary income away.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

There are people on this very thread who have watched it digitally

WHOOP WHOOP

RED ALERT!

literal alert!

Alert the Wisconsin/Minnesota national guard!!

 

[flynnibus]

Might want to double check that my friend.....

And its available on Vudu, iTunes, Prime and where ever other digital purchases can be made as of last week.

Available doesn't mean it's going to be signficant revenue contributors like they used to be. The premium early access gonna be an easy money stream for them on big films... and they'll likely return to selling their content to 3rd parties after a cool off period. But DVDs and streaming rentals aren't going to be what the old streams were.

 

[flynnibus]

None of us can say what the dollar value of streaming revenue versus individual sales is.

Music and video games have shifted to subscription based models for a large portion of the customer base. There has to be a reason.

Music did it because the royalty model is incredibly cheap and why artists basically make no money anymore from album sales. It's not the content producers selling streaming subscriptions.. it's 3rd parties. The music industry was bullied by piracy and not a clear way to handle the transition away from radio... so they have basically bad royalty deals now.

Video games went subscription because it draws out consistent subscribers instead of buyers buying 1-2 titles sporadically. The investors love the idea of a predictable revenue stream - aka a subscriber base. It's why nearly every industry is moving to recurring subscription offers.

Without access to hard data we can't say the current model is better or worse than the old one, but movies absolutely do generate revenue beyond the theatrical release.

There is a lot of industry data and we know the old markets have dried up. What is lacking yet is the new monetization models that are making as good revenue and return as the old models.

But like Kodak before.. you can't just keep doing the same thing while the market has changed just because you don't have the new answer yet.

 

[BuddyThomas]

Rob Marshall has Oscars on his mantle

Well, he has a bunch of Emmys on his mantle and a bunch of other awards. He has a very well deserved Academy Award directing nomination for CHICAGO, and that film won Best Picture in 2003. He's far from "done" as some of the haters think.

 

[Casper Gutman]

To be fair…no one under 50 who’s sane buys those anymore

They absolutely should. Allowing entertainment companies to pull back or alter movies you’ve paid for at will or to essentially erase entire films and series from existence is a terrible model. Owning physical media (or a permanent download stored locally) is essential.

So we’ve established streaming is awful in a lot of ways. How do the studios adjust? Because for a company like Disney, the only thing worse then having to support a money-losing streaming service would be to have to sell all your content to one or two outside streamers that have a monopoly or near monopoly. Vertical integration has always been the most basic requirement for a major studio.

 

[TalkingHead]

Relevant to Disney’s future Marvel box office, supposedly the surest thing in their stable:

‘Secret Invasion’ Was a Mess, but Marvel Had Already Lost Its Way

As seen in the listless "Secret Invasion," the very things that allowed Marvel Studios to soar in the 2010s have become a major burden in the 2020s.

variety.com

 

[Casper Gutman]

Relevant to Disney’s future Marvel box office, supposedly the surest thing in their stable:

‘Secret Invasion’ Was a Mess, but Marvel Had Already Lost Its Way

As seen in the listless "Secret Invasion," the very things that allowed Marvel Studios to soar in the 2010s have become a major burden in the 2020s.

variety.com

This is kind of an insane article considering that in 2022 Marvel films had the two biggest openings of the year, both bigger then Barbie in 2023. I think several things are at work here in addition to Ant-Man’s poor performance:

1) Secret Invasion was genuinely awful. Despite producing some gems, Marvel hasn’t gotten their TV production line down.
2) Commentators and industry folks have been predicting the MCU would imminently crash and burn for 15 years. It’s defied every supposed rule of franchise filmmaking and refused to do so, which has annoyed a lot of pundits a bit, especially ones inclined to auteurism.
3) The utter stink of DC is rubbing off on perceptions of all superhero cinema. We’ll see if that passes after Blue Beetle crashes.

Some further thoughts:

1) Although they’ve been wrong for years, it may be time to grant a bit of credibility to the auteurists and bring in some filmmakers with distinctive visions and let them express those, at least visually. Marvel’s been doing this a bit with Raimi and Zhao, though the latter was such an unmitigated disaster it makes the solution a harder sell.
2) It would be wise to cut back on the world building unless it benefits the immediate story, though the author is stretching for examples - Ms Marvel and Thor didn’t particularly suffer from it.

The next five Marvel films will give us a clearer idea of what’s happening. In particular, The Marvels, Thunderbolts, and the troubled Blade will test the selling power of the MCU brand. Deadpool 3 will be a hit regardless. After that the road becomes smoother as they return to Avengers territory, likely with RDJ and others returning, and move into the X-Men. Time will tell.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

In 2019 it was $1.7 billion.

That’s beside the point.

 

[Disney Irish]

Available doesn't mean it's going to be signficant revenue contributors like they used to be. The premium early access gonna be an easy money stream for them on big films... and they'll likely return to selling their content to 3rd parties after a cool off period. But DVDs and streaming rentals aren't going to be what the old streams were.

The point was its not nothing as the poster I was responding was indicating.

As for how much it'll contribute, that is on an individual film basis. For a film like Lightyear, it'll be minimal. But for a film like TLM it has the potential to bring in a whole lot more especially in the US due to its popularity here domestically.

So while I'll agree that it won't be the same as it was in decades past, its not going to be nothing. Its why Studios still push out physical media into certain regions, as there is still a market for it in those regions. Once that market dries up completely then yeah it'll stop being something that is done worldwide. But until then its still a revenue stream that studios including Disney are going to exploit.

Also we may see a resurgence in physical media sales as consumers discover that streamers aren't going to carry their favorite shows and movies indefinitely. As such it might become a large viable profit stream once again just like in decades past.

Yes, Streamers, You Should Be Giving Us Blu-rays

When movies and shows can be lost to time, we need physical media from streaming services

collider.com

Blu-ray and 4K/UHD was in the process of being replaced by HVD and some other optical formats before the pandemic, some of those are still under development today and may still come to market. So while streaming and other digital formats make things easier, there is no guarantee that an all-digital future is on the horizon just yet. And I say all this as a big proponent of streaming and other digital services.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Well, he has a bunch of Emmys on his mantle and a bunch of other awards. He has a very well deserved Academy Award directing nomination for CHICAGO, and that film won Best Picture in 2003. He's far from "done" as some of the haters think.

“done” with Disney…was the concept

Just like the “Lucas twins”

You had your run…now ends it

 

[Disney Analyst]

Just got out of Barbie at a packed Tuesday night showing.

Great movie. Although not as funny as I thought it would be.

Great message. Great writing. Good fun.

 

[TP2000]

But like Kodak before.. you can't just keep doing the same thing while the market has changed just because you don't have the new answer yet.

That Kodak mention brought it home for me.

If you had told people 40 years ago that in just a few decades Kodak would no longer exist, and Sears would no longer exist, etc., etc. they would have thought you were nuts. But here we are. Similarly, Disney is not a brand that should be considered immune from the 21st century.

Disney's mega-budget movies using a giant army of SoCal white collar employees to create and market are almost all bombing at the box office to the tune of $100 Million here, $200 Million there, or maybe only losing $60 Million if they're lucky. But if Disney puts these expensive movies on streaming it only destroys what is left of their failing theater box office business model, and Disney's streaming business is losing a couple Billion dollars per year anyway.

Also, Hollywood's writers and actors are both on strike and are afraid that modern AI and streaming technology will put them in the trash bin of history with West Virginia coal miners and North Dakota pipeline workers.

Makes me glad I'm retired. Or that I don't have to learn a real skill like plumbing or computer programming to keep working today.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

This is kind of an insane article considering that in 2022 Marvel films had the two biggest openings of the year, both bigger then Barbie in 2023. I think several things are at work here in addition to Ant-Man’s poor performance:

1) Secret Invasion was genuinely awful. Despite producing some gems, Marvel hasn’t gotten their TV production line down.
2) Commentators and industry folks have been predicting the MCU would imminently crash and burn for 15 years. It’s defied every supposed rule of franchise filmmaking and refused to do so, which has annoyed a lot of pundits a bit, especially ones inclined to auteurism.
3) The utter stink of DC is rubbing off on perceptions of all superhero cinema. We’ll see if that passes after Blue Beetle crashes.

Some further thoughts:

1) Although they’ve been wrong for years, it may be time to grant a bit of credibility to the auteurists and bring in some filmmakers with distinctive visions and let them express those, at least visually. Marvel’s been doing this a bit with Raimi and Zhao, though the latter was such an unmitigated disaster it makes the solution a harder sell.
2) It would be wise to cut back on the world building unless it benefits the immediate story, though the author is stretching for examples - Ms Marvel and Thor didn’t particularly suffer from it.

The next five Marvel films will give us a clearer idea of what’s happening. In particular, The Marvels, Thunderbolts, and the troubled Blade will test the selling power of the MCU brand. Deadpool 3 will be a hit regardless. After that the road becomes smoother as they return to Avengers territory, likely with RDJ and others returning, and move into the X-Men. Time will tell.

The current trajectory is MCU’s popularity is “waning”…not “gaining”

Doesn’t mean it can’t rebound…but let’s NOT try to parse the truth yet again.

Things made a distinct turn when they started letting avengers leave.
Maybe Hallee can be one now? That’ll fix it

And everybody trying to say Disney isnt struggling here should have their home immediately tested for radon

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That Kodak mention brought it home for me.

If you had told people 40 years ago that in just a few decades Kodak would no longer exist, and Sears would no longer exist, etc., etc. they would have thought you were nuts. But here we are. Similarly, Disney is not a brand that should be considered immune from the 21st century.

Disney's mega-budget movies using a giant army of SoCal white collar employees to create and market are almost all bombing at the box office to the tune of $100 Million here, $200 Million there, or maybe only losing $60 Million if they're lucky. But if Disney puts these expensive movies on streaming it only destroys what is left of their failing theater box office business model, and Disney's streaming business is losing a couple Billion dollars per year anyway.

Also, Hollywood's writers and actors are both on strike and are afraid that modern AI and streaming technology will put them in the trash bin of history with West Virginia coal miners and North Dakota pipeline workers.

Makes me glad I'm retired. Or that I don't have to learn a real skill like plumbing or computer programming to keep working today.

Excellent points.

Now hopefully we can agree with it. It’s all abject truth…and not get the thinly veiled “but…but…I LOVE going to wdw!!” based responses that try to deny it.

 

[Casper Gutman]

The current trajectory is MCU’s popularity is “waning”…not “gaining”

Doesn’t mean it can’t rebound…but let’s NOT try to parse the truth yet again.

Things made a distinct turn when they started letting avengers leave.
Maybe Hallee can be one now? That’ll fix it

And everybody trying to say Disney didn’t struggling here should have their home immediately tested for radon

No one is saying Disney isn’t struggling. Come on.

Your continual refusal to acknowledge that actors have free will is really, really odd.

The MCU was always going to wane somewhat after the utterly unprecedented high of the lead up to Infinity War. In actuality it’s done so less than one might expect, with Strange2 smashing its predecessor and Thor 4 beating Ragnarok in every market in which it played. The question is whether Ant-Man was a one-off and the MCU is performing as expected after the huge Avengers high or whether there’s a deeper issue. We won’t really know until Cap 4 at the earliest.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

No one is saying Disney isn’t struggling. Come on.

Then we’ll not see “the FLASH bombed!” To divert attention anymore?

I discuss that all the time over and “wbmagic”

Your continual refusal to acknowledge that actors have free will is really, really odd.

Actors are “known” to accept big checks.

The MCU was always going to wane somewhat after the utterly unprecedented high of the lead up to Infinity War. In actuality it’s done so less than one might expect, with Strange2 smashing its predecessor and Thor 4 beating Ragnarok in every market in which it played. The question is whether Ant-Man was a one-off and the MCU is performing as expected after the huge Avengers high or whether there’s a deeper issue. We won’t really know until Cap 4 at the earliest.

Tell Irish. Nothing about Hollywood history would indicate That MCU isn’t headed for the shelf…at least for a while. Then we can enjoy the live action remakes