Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TalkingHead]

Sinners losing PLF to Thunderbolts next weekend is lame but it’ll also ramp up some repeat business between now and then.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Except theaters aren't in the movie business they are in the concession business. So the actual ticket sales are secondary to the people buying popcorn, soda, and candy. So they don't care what movie is playing.

So the point is that all studios have ended up pushing out movies that don't draw an audience over the years. We just happen to track one particular studio, but all have had their issues over the last couple years, but especially so far in 2025. We'll see what happens next week.

Good point. The theaters do make their money on concessions but they still can’t survive selling concessions to empty or near empty screenings.

 

[Disney Irish]

Good point. The theaters do make their money on concessions but they still can’t survive selling concessions to empty or near empty screenings.

One Disney movie, or even a string of Disney movies, not doing well isn't going to break the theaters. So lets get that out of the way right off the bat.

The larger issue is there isn't enough content compelling enough to bring audiences out. That isn't a Disney problem that is an industry problem. We're about to hit May and outside of Minecraft there hasn't been a real breakout movie the first 4 months of 2025. Prior years that would have never happened. That isn't on Disney, that is a whole industry problem. Why didn't other Studios counter program any movie released so far in 2025? Its clear there was space for more releases but they didn't release any. That isn't a Disney problem, that is an industry problem.

We focus so much on Disney because we're on a Disney fan site, but too many here like to ignore the fact that other Studios are having the same problems as Disney. There is no Studio that is doing it right, all have the same issues to varying degrees. But yet too many here want to make it seem like its just a Disney problem.

As has been discussed here a bunch of time but gets glossed over by many. We are in middle of a industry wide shift across the entire media landscape, from theatrical to broadcast media is being transformed right now. And while I'll be sad if it happens, I will not be surprised if by the end of this shift if theatrical goes to being a niche distribution method or even goes away completely (as I've mentioned before over the years). Studios were beginning to make this shift with day-and-date and other smaller theatrical windows, but started to get cold feet when streaming started to falter a bit so went back to pure theatrical but with varying theatrical windows. But in the next couple years I'm fairly certain they will try again and move back to a day-and-date model as it only makes sense long term given that the box office continues to go down year-over-year, and doesn't look to be stopping. So far 2025 looks to be coming in under 2022, and that isn't good if you're worried about theatrical long term.

Bottom line, if you're worried about theaters then go to the movies. Show Studios that theatrical is still alive and viable. I do my part and go almost every week. Now you don't have to do that, but try going once a month. Otherwise don't be surprised when theatrical goes away.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I see a lot of twatter fodder saying the reception of sith in the theaters this weekend is “validation” of the prequel series…

It’s quite the opposite…it’s an indictment

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Good point. The theaters do make their money on concessions but they still can’t survive selling concessions to empty or near empty screenings.

Yeah…flops help no one. It’s amazing that this comes up daily around here

One Disney movie, or even a string of Disney movies, not doing well isn't going to break the theaters. So lets get that out of the way right off the bat.

The larger issue is there isn't enough content compelling enough to bring audiences out. That isn't a Disney problem that is an industry problem. We're about to hit May and outside of Minecraft there hasn't been a real breakout movie the first 4 months of 2025. Prior years that would have never happened. That isn't on Disney, that is a whole industry problem. Why didn't other Studios counter program any movie released so far in 2025? Its clear there was space for more releases but they didn't release any. That isn't a Disney problem, that is an industry problem.

We focus so much on Disney because we're on a Disney fan site, but too many here like to ignore the fact that other Studios are having the same problems as Disney. There is no Studio that is doing it right, all have the same issues to varying degrees. But yet too many here want to make it seem like its just a Disney problem.

As has been discussed here a bunch of time but gets glossed over by many. We are in middle of a industry wide shift across the entire media landscape, from theatrical to broadcast media is being transformed right now. And while I'll be sad if it happens, I will not be surprised if by the end of this shift if theatrical goes to being a niche distribution method or even goes away completely (as I've mentioned before over the years). Studios were beginning to make this shift with day-and-date and other smaller theatrical windows, but started to get cold feet when streaming started to falter a bit so went back to pure theatrical but with varying theatrical windows. But in the next couple years I'm fairly certain they will try again and move back to a day-and-date model as it only makes sense long term given that the box office continues to go down year-over-year, and doesn't look to be stopping. So far 2025 looks to be coming in under 2022, and that isn't good if you're worried about theatrical long term.

Bottom line, if you're worried about theaters then go to the movies. Show Studios that theatrical is still alive and viable. I do my part and go almost every week. Now you don't have to do that, but try going once a month. Otherwise don't be surprised when theatrical goes away.

I’m trying to understand you better…is it possible that in attempting to be “neutral” about the different studios…you end up ignoring the benchmarks for success and failure completely?

Because nothing has changed since jaws ate people and they sold about 100 billion in licensed Star Wars merch. The standards are still the standard to about a 80% certainty.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yeah…flops help no one. It’s amazing that this comes up daily around here

Who claimed flops help anyone? No one made such a claim.

I’m trying to understand you better…is it possible that in attempting to be “neutral” about the different studios…you end up ignoring the benchmarks for success and failure completely?

Because nothing has changed since jaws ate people and they sold about 100 billion in licensed Star Wars merch. The standards are still the standard to about a 80% certainty.

I'm not ignoring anything, quite the contrary. I'm actually looking at the entire landscape and seeing this isn't affecting just one studio with a mouse mascot. I've tried to have this conversation with you in years past but you're so focus only on the mouse's failures and your grievances that you ignore everything else.

The standards for you might be the same, but for the rest of the industry it has changed. Which is why they have been transitioning and trying everything to squeeze more blood from stone. Ticket sales are down overall, and continue to be on a downward trend year-over-year and will likely never get back to prepandemic levels, and you keep ignoring that.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Who claimed flops help anyone? No one made such a claim.

Well you don’t seem to notice it…but you are. Over and over again

Especially with this recent “well…movies can make money over the longterm…”

First, it’s a strawman argument…because there is never a way to attribute actual real numbers to it. It can’t be proven or disproven…so it’s invalid due to ambiguity.

And second…the HITS can make money easily…this much is obvious on about 100 different levels…
But flops may “make Pennies”…we’ll never know…

But for what? They aren’t worth the hard drives they are digitized on. End of the day. A Waste.

We just need to stop doing cartwheels and making excuses for the bad. And there will be less bickering the minute that happens.

In about 10 days we’re gonna get our chance to judge things objectively again…let’s see how we do?

 

[MoonRakerSCM]

Snow white is now in 610 theatres and as of yesterday (Friday) is at 85.4 million...

That leaves 4.6 million for it to make to pass 90 million. 46 days making $100,000 a day.

It will not be making 90 million domestic.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm not ignoring anything, quite the contrary. I'm actually looking at the entire landscape and seeing this isn't affecting just one studio with a mouse mascot. I've tried to have this conversation with you in years past but you're so focus only on the mouse's failures and your grievances that you ignore everything else.

The standards for you might be the same, but for the rest of the industry it has changed. Which is why they have been transitioning and trying everything to squeeze more blood from stone. Ticket sales are down overall, and continue to be on a downward trend year-over-year and will likely never get back to prepandemic levels, and you keep ignoring that.

You just proved my point. You ignored the fundamental issue and spun yourself in circles

When a movie flops…no matter the studio…the comment should be: “That was a mistake. Someone should be fired. They need to do better. There’s no upside”

I hate to make your “grey” world too B&W…but in this case that’s it. It really is. The world is ruled by percentages and there is no ambiguity on these things.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Snow white is now in 610 theatres and as of yesterday (Friday) is at 85.4 million...

View attachment 855684

That leaves 4.6 million for it to make to pass 90 million. 46 days making $100,000 a day.

It will not be making 90 million domestic.

…but…but…but…

(See how long it takes to become stupid in here? )

 

[Chi84]

Who claimed flops help anyone? No one made such a claim.


I'm not ignoring anything, quite the contrary. I'm actually looking at the entire landscape and seeing this isn't affecting just one studio with a mouse mascot. I've tried to have this conversation with you in years past but you're so focus only on the mouse's failures and your grievances that you ignore everything else.

The standards for you might be the same, but for the rest of the industry it has changed. Which is why they have been transitioning and trying everything to squeeze more blood from stone. Ticket sales are down overall, and continue to be on a downward trend year-over-year and will likely never get back to prepandemic levels, and you keep ignoring that.

There are quite a few articles reporting this downward trend. They generally compare pre- and post-pandemic levels but note the other factors you mentioned earlier.

For me personally, the theater experience started going downhill when people became addicted to their phones. It got worse after people spent a few years watching in their homes.

Viewing habits are clearly changing. When I think of how different theaters are now than they were 20 years ago, it’s hard to imagine what they will be like in a few years.

 

[Agent H]

I see a lot of twatter fodder saying the reception of sith in the theaters this weekend is “validation” of the prequel series…

It’s quite the opposite…it’s an indictment

How is it an indictment?

 

[Agent H]

You just proved my point. You ignored the fundamental issue and spun yourself in circles

When a movie flops…no matter the studio…the comment should be: “That was a mistake. Someone should be fired. They need to do better. There’s no upside”

I hate to make your “grey” world too B&W…but in this case that’s it. It really is. The world is ruled by percentages and there is no ambiguity on these things.

And who should be fired because a bunch of the wrong people were given a platform to speak about nonsense?

 

[Disney Irish]

Well you don’t seem to notice it…but you are. Over and over again

Especially with this recent “well…movies can make money over the longterm…”

First, it’s a strawman argument…because there is never a way to attribute actual real numbers to it. It can’t be proven or disproven…so it’s invalid due to ambiguity.

And second…the HITS can make money easily…this much is obvious on about 100 different levels…
But flops may “make Pennies”…we’ll never know…

But for what? They aren’t worth the hard drives they are digitized on. End of the day. A Waste.

We just need to stop doing cartwheels and making excuses for the bad. And there will be less bickering the minute that happens.

In about 10 days we’re gonna get our chance to judge things objectively again…let’s see how we do?

First, I notice failures and have called them out when it actually happens.

Second, no one is doing cartwheels when a movie flops at the box office, that just ain't happening. Posters do have discussions about the degree in which something flops, but no one is cheering on a flop (other than people that have an axe to grind and like to dance on graves, for which there seems to be a few around here).

Third, you confuse nuanced discussion about potential post-theatrical revenue with "cheering". I'm not sure why this is such an issue for you, because post-theatrical has been when many movies for decades have found an audience and had a second life. This is no different today, movies still find a life post-theatrical and in some cases can recoup budgets and make profit that didn't occurred during theatrical. Its only when you have an grievance that you can't see clearly and acknowledge that it still happens in a digital world. Movies don't stop earning money after it leaves the theaters, just ask any actor that still gets residuals 20-30 years after a movie left theaters.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

And who should be fired because a bunch of the wrong people were given a platform to speak about nonsense?

…we gotta even you out a little. and I’m serious about this. I like fans…engaging in fans…and learning with fans…

But you need to ease off the darts from behind your phone/keyboard.

 

[Disney Irish]

You just proved my point. You ignored the fundamental issue and spun yourself in circles

When a movie flops…no matter the studio…the comment should be: “That was a mistake. Someone should be fired. They need to do better. There’s no upside”

I hate to make your “grey” world too B&W…but in this case that’s it. It really is. The world is ruled by percentages and there is no ambiguity on these things.

If that is the way you want to discuss movies that flop be my guest, no one is stopping you. You don't have to participate when the rest of us have our nuanced discussions.

Also just because I have more nuanced discussions doesn't mean I ignore things. It just means that I'm going deeper than the surface level that you appears to only want to discuss. There is nothing wrong with either, its just that they won't see eye-to-eye.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

How is it an indictment?

Well I don’t want to set you off…

But it’s an indictment of how Disney doubled down after they bought it of making mistakes with Star Wars…which occurred with Lucas and the prequels…

The unsaid part about the growing prequel love is not that they were good, misunderstood, or got better with time…it’s that people are looking for much better now…and this is a side effect.

But just my Star Wars take…cause it’s been awhile.

 

[Agent H]

Well I don’t want to set you off…

But it’s an indictment of how Disney doubled down after they bought it of making mistakes with Star Wars…which occurred with Lucas and the prequels…

The unsaid part about the growing prequel love is not that they were good, misunderstood, or got better with time…it’s that people are looking for much better now…and this is a side effect.

But just my Star Wars take…cause it’s been awhile.

I don’t think so. I think it’s just a good movie. (Yes I am a prequels fan as much as I am a sequels fan. Revenge of the Sith is my second favorite Star Wars movie)

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Had a good chat today with the manager of a Regal theater. We were at the same event, and he approached me about potential cross-promotion of our businesses.

We have often done promotions where studios give us tickets to give away, but he didn’t want to do that and said corporate was cracking down on free tickets.

I mentioned setting up a table with soundtracks and merchandise - but it turns out they already sell merch. (I’m more familiar with AMC and have not seen that.

He specifically mentioned they are selling a lot of Stitch merch at the moment. (Actually, my store has been moving some Stitch merch as well - not even specifically related to the new version.)

So I have no idea what is left to do for cross-promotion, but we exchanged info.

I asked what he is doing to combat all manner of competition, and his response was basically selling merch and holding events. It could be as simple as setting up coloring stations for kids, etc.

This was all specific to one theater. It will be interesting to see if “exit through the gift shop” becomes a strategy. Of course, IMO, that’s more risk/exposure for the theater when a film tanks.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Had a good chat today with the manager of a Regal theater. We were at the same event, and he approached me about potential cross-promotion of our businesses.

We have often done promotions where studios give us tickets to give away, but he didn’t want to do that and said corporate was cracking down on free tickets.

I mentioned setting up a table with soundtracks and merchandise - but it turns out they already sell merch. (I’m more familiar with AMC and have not seen that.

He specifically mentioned they are selling a lot of Stitch merch at the moment. (Actually, my store has been moving some Stitch merch as well - not even specifically related to the new version.)

So I have no idea what is left to do for cross-promotion, but we exchanged info.

I asked what he is doing to combat all manner of competition, and his response was basically selling merch and holding events. It could be as simple as setting up coloring stations for kids, etc.

This was all specific to one theater. It will be interesting to see if “exit through the gift shop” becomes a strategy. Of course, IMO, that’s more risk/exposure for the theater when a film tanks.

I noticed our regal has a merch stand now as well…

This is what they seek to push (and see if this sounds familiar?)…funkos, loungeflys and popcorn buckets

So I noticed a couple of weeks ago they had wicked, Captain America and Snow White…

I guess as meatloaf says “one outta 3 ain’t bad”

Minecraft was noticeably missing